Peyton Niksch — OGILVIE

Peyton Niksch P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%20.2%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	29	3	64	291	60	23	11	10%	2.2	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	4.7%	4.52	5.45	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	29	3	64	291	60	23	11	10%	2.2	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	4.7%	4.52	5.45	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	MIL	14	0	27	112	27	7	3	0%	1.9	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	2.7%	2.70	3.33	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	MIL	7	0	16	66	15	3	1	0%	2.3	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	1.5%	1.12	2.59	—
2026	22	AA RAW	MIL	8	3	21	113	18	13	7	38%	2.6	15.9%	11.5%	4.4%	6.2%	9.43	6.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIL	62	0	65	273	58	24	8	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.7%	12.7%	3.0%	4.50	4.45	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	63	0	66	280	62	24	8	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.34	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	64	0	67	283	64	24	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.33	4.28	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIL	64	0	67	283	64	24	8	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.3%	14.4%	3.0%	4.29	4.26	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIL	63	0	66	279	63	23	8	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.4%	14.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.30	+0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIL	61	0	64	271	61	23	9	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.1%	4.35	4.39	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIL	30	0	32	135	29	12	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.7%	12.7%	3.0%	4.50	4.45	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	44	0	46	194	43	16	6	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.34	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	51	0	54	228	51	19	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.33	4.28	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIL	56	0	59	249	57	21	7	0%	1.1	22.7%	8.3%	14.4%	3.0%	4.29	4.26	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIL	57	0	60	253	57	21	8	0%	1.1	22.7%	8.4%	14.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.30	+0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIL	56	0	59	249	56	21	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.1%	4.35	4.39	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		295	0	310	1308	293	111	40	0%	1.1	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	3.0%	4.35	3.95	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	72	26	0%	1.1	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	3.0%	4.35	3.95	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		29	3	64	291	46	26	14	10%	2.2	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	4.7%	4.52	5.45	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	9	200	914	145	82	43	10%	2.2	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	4.7%	4.52	5.45	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Niksch (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	20.2%	9.1%	3.1%	—	4.36	22.0%	13.5%	198	-0.26	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	94
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	89
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	89
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	87
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	86
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	86
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	86
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	86
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	86
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	86
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	86
Alex Klonowski R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	21.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.331	4.69	14.3%	7.1%	413	+1.11	3.58	539	85
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	85
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	85
Parker Curry R 2017 · 3.73 FIP	23	SU	3.73	22.5%	8.2%	2.7%	.341	4.62	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.89	3.73	256	85
Fred Villarreal R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SU	3.93	17.6%	6.8%	2.6%	.331	3.64	14.1%	3.5%	63	-0.29	3.64	114	85
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	85
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	85
Troy Bacon R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.8%	10.0%	3.3%	.349	4.85	18.2%	5.7%	83	+0.54	3.34	203	85
Gerlin Rosario R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.94	18.1%	5.4%	153	+1.15	3.02	248	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	62	22.1%	8.5%	1.18	4.38
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81