Héctor Cabrera — OGILVIE

Héctor CabreraC DSL Cardinals

Age 18 R/R 6'3" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 40 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.167 / .250 / .194

PA40

HR0

K%32

BB%8

BABIP261

ISO28

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$6M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$6M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$5M	+$4M
2037	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$17M		$37M	+$31M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	61	53	3	1	0	0	3	33	4	0	0	57	167	75	242	19	143	54	5	115	-54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	61	51	5	1	0	0	5	21	4	0	0	98	233	118	351	20	161	34	8	186	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	STL	—	60	48	10	1	1	1	7	19	5	0	0	208	367	333	700	125	321	32	12	292	82	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
YTD	18	ROK	STL	—	60	44	12	2	1	1	11	13	5	0	0	273	467	432	898	159	367	22	18	414	175	+5	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.8
ROS	18	ROK	STL	0%	40	36	6	1	0	0	3	13	1	0	0	167	250	194	444	28	293	32	8	265	61	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
ROS	18	MLB	STL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		293	—	—	241	43	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	STL	—	60	49	10	1	1	1	7	19	5	0	0	204	367	327	693	122	310	32	12	292	82	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
TOT	18	ROK	STL	—	100	84	16	2	1	1	10	32	6	0	0	190	320	274	594	83	294	32	10	281	73	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	STL	34%	154	136	28	5	1	2	12	47	5	1	0	206	294	301	596	96	292	31	8	272	66	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2028	20	MLB	STL	48%	301	264	55	9	2	5	25	90	9	2	1	208	299	314	613	106	294	30	8	280	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.5
2029	21	MLB	STL	54%	415	366	77	13	3	7	34	122	12	3	1	210	299	320	618	109	295	29	8	286	77	-11	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.9
2030	22	MLB	STL	57%	496	438	94	16	4	9	41	145	14	4	1	215	302	331	633	116	296	29	8	289	80	-11	+0	+0	+9	+14	1.2
2031	23	MLB	STL	58%	520	457	99	17	4	10	43	151	15	4	1	217	305	337	642	120	297	29	8	292	81	-11	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.4
2032	24	MLB	STL	57%	520	457	99	17	4	10	43	151	15	4	1	217	305	337	642	120	297	29	8	293	83	-10	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2033	25	MLB	STL	57%	520	457	99	17	4	10	43	151	15	4	1	217	305	337	642	120	298	29	8	295	84	-10	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2034	26	MLB	STL	57%	520	457	100	17	4	11	43	151	15	4	1	219	307	346	653	127	297	29	8	295	84	-9	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2035	27	MLB	STL	55%	520	456	100	17	4	11	44	151	15	4	1	219	309	346	655	127	297	29	8	295	84	-9	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2036	28	MLB	STL	55%	520	456	100	17	4	11	44	152	15	4	1	219	309	346	655	127	297	29	8	294	83	-10	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.4
2037	29	MLB	STL	53%	520	455	98	16	4	10	45	153	15	3	1	215	307	334	641	119	296	29	9	292	82	-11	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.2
2038	30	MLB	STL	53%	520	455	97	16	4	10	45	154	15	3	1	213	305	332	637	119	294	30	9	290	80	-12	+0	-2	+9	+15	1.0
2039	31	MLB	STL	52%	504	442	93	15	4	9	43	151	14	3	1	210	301	324	624	113	292	30	9	285	77	-13	+0	-3	+9	+14	0.8
2027	19	MLB	STL	34%	53	47	10	2	0	1	4	16	2	0	0	213	302	319	621	106	292	30	8	251	50	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	STL	48%	146	129	27	5	1	2	12	44	4	1	0	209	297	310	607	101	294	30	8	259	56	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
2029	21	MLB	STL	54%	225	199	42	7	2	4	18	66	6	2	1	211	296	327	623	116	295	29	8	264	60	-10	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.0
2030	22	MLB	STL	57%	281	248	53	9	2	5	23	82	8	2	1	214	301	327	628	113	296	29	8	268	63	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2031	23	MLB	STL	58%	299	263	57	10	2	6	25	87	9	2	1	217	306	338	645	122	296	29	8	270	65	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2032	24	MLB	STL	57%	296	261	57	10	2	6	25	86	8	2	1	218	306	341	647	123	297	29	8	272	66	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2033	25	MLB	STL	57%	295	260	57	10	2	6	25	86	8	2	1	219	307	342	649	123	297	29	8	273	67	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2034	26	MLB	STL	57%	294	259	57	10	2	6	25	85	8	2	1	220	308	344	652	124	297	29	9	274	68	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2035	27	MLB	STL	55%	289	255	55	9	2	6	24	84	8	2	1	216	303	337	640	122	297	29	8	274	68	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2036	28	MLB	STL	55%	286	252	54	9	2	6	24	84	8	2	1	214	303	337	640	123	296	29	8	273	67	-11	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.2
2037	29	MLB	STL	53%	278	244	52	9	2	5	24	82	8	2	1	213	304	328	632	115	295	29	9	271	66	-11	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.1
2038	30	MLB	STL	53%	274	240	50	8	2	5	24	81	8	2	1	208	301	321	622	113	294	30	9	268	64	-11	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.0
2039	31	MLB	STL	52%	263	231	49	8	2	5	23	79	7	1	1	212	303	329	632	117	292	30	9	264	61	-12	-0	-1	+5	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3279	2889	620	106	23	63	276	962	92	22	11	215	303	333	636	118	297	29	8	270	65	-131	+0	-4	+59	+93	1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	123	21	5	12	55	191	18	4	2	215	303	332	635	117	298	29	8	270	65	-26	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	6131	5385	1148	194	46	115	511	1815	179	43	12	213	303	330	633	117	296	30	8	289	79	-145	+4	-7	+109	+174	13.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	122	21	5	12	54	192	19	5	1	214	303	331	634	117	296	30	8	289	79	-15	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	61	51	5	1	0	0	5	21	4	0	0	98	233	118	351	20	161	34	8	186	0	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	12	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
	/162	664	19	1	227	312	387	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,340	63	24	216	301	334	+60	+32	8.0	6.8
	/162	664	13	5	216	301	334	+11.9	+6.4	1.6	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Héctor Cabrera (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	190/320/274	83	294	1	0	32%	10%	73	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Wilin Rosario 2007 · A	18	41→49	37→60	47→45	36	199/243/268	69	296	6	7	34%	5%	37	-2.7	206/248/304	98	304	10	5	34%	5%	49	-1.8	234/270/419	184	278	26	3	26%	4%	85	+0.5
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Richard Ramirez 2023 · A	18	37	37→55	47→40	38	176/239/249	73	297	5	6	40%	8%	30	-3.1	195/259/306	111	313	11	5	38%	8%	55	-1.4	199/259/329	129	331	13	2	41%	6%	57	-0.5
✕Brendan Rodgers 2016 · A	19	42→50	40→50	46→45	39	203/253/296	93	299	7	7	33%	6%	49	-1.8	219/263/330	111	288	12	6	27%	4%	62	-0.9	236/292/359	123	281	13	0	20%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→55	45→40	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	29	-3.2	211/250/329	118	282	13	5	29%	5%	56	-1.3	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
●Maikel Franco 2011 · A	18	39→49	38→55	49→40	38	188/239/267	79	268	5	3	31%	5%	35	-2.8	222/260/345	123	278	12	3	24%	4%	65	-0.7	249/302/424	175	265	23	1	16%	6%	98	+1.6
●Christian Vázquez 2009 · A	18	42→52	36→50	49→45	38	195/249/259	65	307	3	6	36%	6%	37	-2.7	206/260/291	85	289	6	4	29%	6%	50	-1.7	256/308/402	145	293	18	8	19%	7%	96	+1.0
✕Yairo Muñoz 2013 · A	18	41→51	37→50	48→55	41	195/247/274	79	274	2	8	29%	6%	40	-2.4	202/253/286	84	263	5	7	24%	6%	46	-2.0	262/304/399	137	319	15	17	22%	5%	91	+0.7
●José Fermín 2017 · A	18	42→50	37→45	48→55	44	201/258/285	84	274	3	8	27%	7%	48	-1.9	201/251/277	76	239	4	11	17%	4%	43	-2.2	256/343/399	143	276	14	28	13%	10%	110	+1.2
✕Marcus Wilson 2015 · A	18	39→49	36→50	48→50	38	183/242/249	66	297	4	8	38%	7%	32	-3.0	203/268/284	81	314	5	10	34%	8%	52	-1.6	215/282/315	100	313	8	11	31%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	36	-2.7	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	53	-1.5	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	44	-0.5
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→42	39→55	47→45	39	169/233/258	89	267	6	8	37%	7%	31	-3.0	206/271/341	135	300	13	8	33%	8%	69	-0.4	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Aaron Familia 2017 · A	18	38	38→40	48→40	45	181/270/258	78	284	6	4	36%	9%	48	-1.9	187/273/272	85	333	6	4	41%	9%	53	-1.5	167/258/250	82	313	7	3	44%	9%	39	-0.7
✕Martin Cervenka 2012 · A	19	40→49	36→45	50→40	39	191/243/261	70	284	3	6	33%	6%	35	-2.8	194/260/253	59	308	3	5	34%	8%	40	-2.4	224/270/336	112	294	12	1	27%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Cristian Santana 2015 · A	18	38→48	36→45	45→30	36	185/224/252	67	276	2	6	33%	5%	24	-3.6	214/245/313	99	288	10	4	28%	4%	49	-1.8	249/275/348	99	334	10	0	28%	3%	68	-0.3
✕Daniel Santos 2017 · A	18	40	35→45	51→40	43	188/256/247	59	280	3	8	32%	8%	37	-2.6	189/258/268	79	267	5	6	29%	6%	44	-2.1	173/243/251	78	245	5	4	30%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Michael Almanzar 2009 · A	18	42→48	39→50	44→45	36	206/245/293	88	287	6	6	30%	4%	43	-2.2	185/223/257	72	266	5	4	31%	4%	26	-3.4	233/278/363	131	287	14	8	24%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Robert Gonzalez 2019 · A	18	37	40→45	51→60	42	173/271/261	88	302	7	6	41%	9%	50	-1.8	193/299/287	94	289	6	11	32%	11%	68	-0.5	180/305/264	84	250	5	20	26%	12%	63	-0.3
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2