Héctor Cabrera

C DSL Cardinals

Age 19 R/R 6'3" / 160 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1572ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKSTL	61	.098/.233/.118	0	0	-31	—	.075/.183/.094
2026	18	ROKSTL	119	.230/.432/.310	1	0	48	—	.140/.322/.172
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBSTL	229	.197/.282/.267	2	3	59	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBSTL	41	.202/.288/.282	0	1	65	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBSTL	104	.207/.292/.295	1	2	69	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wOBA64

BB%60

wRC+59

Chase%43

Z-Con%38

K%33

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRobert Perez Jr. (age 19) · Adonis Paula (age 19) · Raylin Heredia (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .279 / .264

PA62

HR0

K%31

BB%8

ISO70

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	61	51	5	1	0	0	5	21	4	0	0	98	233	118	351	20	161	34	8	186	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	119	87	20	2	1	1	20	30	11	0	0	230	432	310	743	80	333	25	17	360	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	61	53	4	1	0	0	3	27	4	0	0	75	183	94	278	19	106	44	5	122	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	119	93	13	1	1	0	14	37	11	0	0	140	322	172	494	32	209	31	12	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	61	53	4	1	0	0	3	27	4	0	0	75	183	94	278	19	148	44	5	122	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	61	51	5	1	0	0	5	21	4	0	0	98	233	118	351	20	161	34	8	186	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	119	93	13	1	1	0	14	37	11	0	0	140	322	172	494	32	228	31	12	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	119	87	20	2	1	1	20	30	11	0	0	230	432	310	743	80	333	25	17	360	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	61	54	4	1	0	0	3	27	4	0	0	74	183	93	276	19	106	44	5	122	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	119	93	13	1	1	0	14	37	11	0	0	140	322	172	494	32	209	31	12	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	61	54	4	1	0	0	3	27	4	0	0	74	183	93	276	19	106	44	5	122	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	119	93	13	1	1	0	14	37	11	0	0	140	322	172	494	32	209	31	12	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	STL	0%	229	203	41	6	2	2	18	70	6	3	1	197	282	267	548	70	287	31	8	255	59	-11	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	STL	34%	118	105	21	3	1	1	9	35	3	2	1	202	287	282	569	80	289	30	8	264	65	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	STL	48%	214	189	40	6	2	3	17	63	6	3	2	206	292	296	587	89	291	29	8	271	69	-8	-0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
2030	22	MLB MLE	STL	54%	325	287	60	9	2	5	26	94	9	5	2	210	295	308	603	97	292	29	8	277	73	-10	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.3
2031	23	MLB MLE	STL	57%	407	360	78	12	3	7	33	116	11	6	3	214	298	318	616	104	293	29	8	282	77	-11	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.5
2032	24	MLB MLE	STL	57%	445	395	85	13	3	8	36	126	11	7	3	217	300	327	627	110	294	28	8	286	80	-11	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	STL	57%	445	395	85	13	3	8	36	126	11	7	3	218	301	330	631	112	294	28	8	287	81	-10	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	STL	56%	445	395	85	13	3	8	36	126	11	7	3	218	301	332	633	114	293	28	8	288	81	-10	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.8
2035	27	MLB MLE	STL	55%	445	395	85	13	3	8	36	126	11	7	4	217	300	329	630	113	293	28	8	287	80	-10	-0	+0	+8	+10	0.7
2036	28	MLB MLE	STL	55%	445	395	85	13	3	8	36	127	11	6	4	215	298	324	623	110	292	29	8	284	78	-11	-0	-1	+8	+10	0.5
2037	29	MLB MLE	STL	53%	445	395	84	13	3	8	36	128	11	6	5	212	295	318	613	106	290	29	8	280	76	-13	-1	-1	+8	+10	0.3
2038	30	MLB MLE	STL	57%	445	396	83	13	3	7	35	130	11	6	5	209	292	310	602	101	288	29	8	276	73	-14	-1	-2	+8	+10	0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	STL	34%	41	37	7	1	0	0	3	12	1	1	0	202	288	282	569	79	291	29	7	264	65	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	STL	48%	104	92	19	3	1	1	8	31	3	2	1	207	292	295	587	88	292	30	8	271	69	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	STL	54%	176	155	32	5	1	2	14	51	5	3	1	211	295	306	601	95	293	29	8	276	73	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	STL	57%	230	204	43	7	2	3	18	66	6	4	2	214	298	316	614	102	294	29	8	281	77	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2032	24	MLB CTX	STL	57%	252	224	49	8	2	4	20	71	6	4	2	217	300	324	625	107	295	28	8	285	80	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2033	25	MLB CTX	STL	57%	251	223	48	8	2	4	20	71	6	4	2	218	301	327	628	110	295	28	8	286	81	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2034	26	MLB CTX	STL	56%	251	223	48	8	2	4	20	71	6	4	2	218	301	329	630	111	295	28	8	287	81	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2035	27	MLB CTX	STL	55%	247	219	48	8	2	4	20	70	6	4	2	217	300	326	627	110	294	28	8	286	80	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2036	28	MLB CTX	STL	55%	244	216	47	8	2	4	20	70	6	3	2	215	298	322	620	107	293	29	8	283	78	-6	-0	-0	+4	+5	0.3
2037	29	MLB CTX	STL	53%	238	211	45	7	2	4	19	69	6	3	2	212	295	315	611	103	292	29	8	279	76	-7	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2038	30	MLB CTX	STL	57%	254	226	48	8	2	4	20	74	6	3	3	209	292	308	599	98	290	29	8	275	73	-8	-1	-1	+5	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2288	2030	434	71	18	34	182	656	57	35	19	214	297	317	613	103	296	29	8	281	74	-62	-1	-2	+41	+50	2.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	123	20	5	10	52	186	16	10	5	213	297	317	614	104	294	29	8	281	74	-18	-0	-1	+12	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4421	3908	818	125	30	71	358	1280	123	63	35	209	296	311	607	102	290	29	8	278	74	-117	-1	-4	+76	+92	4.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	119	18	4	10	53	188	18	9	5	207	294	304	598	97	287	29	8	278	74	-18	-0	-1	+12	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Cardinals · 119 PAwOBA .355 → .239 (−116)K% 25.2% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.21%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	30.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.81%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	11.71%
HBP% /PA	9.24%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	6.44%
Singles /BIP	28.07%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.950	×0.995	18.04%
Doubles /BIP	3.51%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	1.99%
Triples /BIP	1.75%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	0.99%
Home runs /BIP	1.75%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.82%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .355 → .239; ISO .080 → .045; BABIP .333 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Cardinals · 61 PAwOBA .185 → .122 (−63)K% 34.4% → 43.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.43%	÷0.961	×1.220	—	—	43.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.20%	÷1.022	×0.700	—	×1.008	5.66%
HBP% /PA	6.56%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	4.62%
Singles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.019	×0.680	—	×1.008	8.97%
Doubles /BIP	3.33%	÷0.990	×0.600	—	×1.008	2.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.047	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .185 → .122; ISO .020 → .011; BABIP .161 → .106. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.5	2,350	40	35	214	295	320	+42	+28	4.3	3.9
/162	664	11	10	+11.9	+7.9	1.2	pk7: 4
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Héctor Cabrera (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	195/279/264	69	287	0	1	31%	8%	59	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Robert Perez Jr. 2019 · A	19	34→44	39→50	42→45	41	172/238/252	80	245	7	6	31%	7%	40	-3.1	207/269/322	115	312	12	4	35%	6%	68	-1.0	219/291/377	157	314	20	2	35%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Adonis Paula 2013 · A	19	36	36→40	48→40	38	174/232/240	66	253	3	8	31%	5%	34	-3.5	184/249/254	70	260	3	5	28%	6%	44	-2.8	164/227/230	66	246	3	2	33%	6%	29	-1.3
✕Raylin Heredia 2023 · A	19	38→48	38→50	53→50	37	183/232/269	87	270	4	9	33%	5%	40	-3.0	200/252/309	109	324	9	11	39%	5%	57	-1.8	219/257/356	137	317	16	15	35%	4%	67	-0.6
✕Luis Barrera 2015 · A	19	34→44	38→45	49→50	47	168/236/246	78	214	5	7	24%	7%	37	-3.3	204/248/281	77	285	4	8	28%	5%	48	-2.5	248/293/357	110	319	5	17	23%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Emilio King 2009 · A	19	36	36→45	43→40	43	174/237/239	65	223	4	6	23%	6%	36	-3.3	193/257/273	80	275	4	6	30%	5%	51	-2.2	204/256/296	92	295	6	4	31%	4%	53	-0.9
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	33	38→40	47→60	44	164/228/238	74	214	6	13	26%	7%	33	-3.6	203/257/270	67	260	5	19	22%	6%	50	-2.3	211/263/264	53	270	3	24	22%	5%	49	-0.7
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2017 · A	19	40→45	38→50	50→45	38	195/232/275	80	260	5	6	27%	4%	41	-3.0	188/231/283	95	306	9	5	40%	5%	43	-2.8	223/288/380	158	332	23	6	38%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2011 · A	18	37	35→45	48→40	42	177/235/231	54	239	3	5	27%	6%	33	-3.6	184/243/259	75	261	6	4	30%	5%	43	-2.8	180/240/266	87	256	7	2	31%	5%	41	-0.9
✕Leandro Pineda 2021 · A	19	36→46	35→50	44→45	45	173/242/228	54	227	3	6	24%	7%	36	-3.4	177/254/265	88	265	6	6	33%	8%	49	-2.4	218/291/356	137	276	14	5	25%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Ryan Vega 2016 · A	19	40	35→40	52→45	41	191/245/253	62	254	3	9	25%	5%	42	-2.9	219/272/310	91	283	7	7	24%	6%	65	-1.2	198/260/284	86	272	8	6	29%	6%	54	-0.9
✕Fidel Castro 2018 · A	19	37	36→50	46→45	41	179/243/246	67	270	3	6	33%	7%	40	-3.1	188/257/298	110	336	8	8	43%	7%	57	-1.8	164/239/288	124	322	10	8	48%	7%	45	-0.8
✕Luis Liberato 2015 · A	19	36→46	37→50	52→50	44	176/243/245	69	250	4	14	30%	8%	39	-3.1	199/256/296	97	299	6	9	33%	7%	55	-1.9	221/286/368	148	299	15	9	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Yordalin Peña 2024 · A	19	36→37	37→55	55	41	176/232/253	77	233	4	10	26%	5%	37	-3.3	188/246/290	102	278	8	14	33%	6%	51	-2.2	184/241/311	127	279	12	17	37%	6%	52	-1.2
✕Brian Sanchez 2016 · A	20	35	39→50	47→45	37	173/232/259	86	255	6	7	33%	5%	39	-3.1	185/246/289	104	268	10	4	33%	6%	51	-2.2	177/247/294	117	245	12	0	32%	7%	52	-0.7
✕Carlos Soler 2018 · A	18	37	36→45	45	43	177/243/251	73	245	2	8	27%	6%	41	-3.0	213/269/300	87	310	3	8	30%	6%	61	-1.5	239/291/346	107	354	2	8	31%	5%	78	-0.1
●Óscar Mercado 2014 · A	19	38→48	37→50	52→60	40	182/240/255	73	262	4	13	30%	6%	40	-3.0	193/242/260	67	241	4	23	20%	5%	42	-2.9	245/308/380	135	288	13	27	19%	7%	93	+0.7
✕James Harris 2012 · A	18	36→46	34→40	50	38	172/235/226	54	254	2	14	31%	5%	32	-3.6	179/239/253	74	258	5	11	30%	6%	40	-3.1	221/284/309	88	314	7	14	30%	7%	66	-0.8
✕Franklin Correa 2014 · A	18	36	34→40	44→50	37	169/234/226	57	270	2	8	36%	6%	32	-3.6	180/243/257	77	276	5	8	34%	7%	42	-2.9	163/223/244	80	246	7	8	35%	6%	31	-1.1
✕Edgar Corcino 2012 · A	20	34→44	40→45	44→45	37	172/232/256	83	269	8	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	199/254/295	96	301	9	6	35%	6%	55	-2.0	232/277/343	111	292	10	4	23%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Romer Cuadrado 2017 · A	19	37→36	38→40	45	43	180/251/257	77	267	6	8	33%	8%	46	-2.6	202/259/294	92	320	8	7	37%	6%	57	-1.8	197/253/289	92	311	8	5	37%	6%	51	-1.5

Héctor Cabrera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps