Héctor Cabrera — OGILVIE

Héctor CabreraC DSL Cardinals

Age 18 R/R 6'3" / 160 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 11 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.100 / .182 / .100

PA11

HR0

K%36

BB%9

BABIP285

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	61	51	5	1	0	0	5	21	4	0	0	98	233	118	351	20	161	34	8	186	12	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	61	53	4	1	0	0	3	31	4	0	0	75	183	94	278	19	126	51	5	119	-33	-10	+0	—	—	+1	-0.9
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	61	53	4	1	0	0	3	31	4	0	0	75	183	94	278	19	174	51	5	119	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	61	51	5	1	0	0	5	21	4	0	0	98	233	118	351	20	161	34	8	186	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	61	54	4	1	0	0	3	31	4	0	0	74	183	93	276	19	126	51	5	119	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	61	54	4	1	0	0	3	31	4	0	0	74	183	93	276	19	126	51	5	119	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	STL	—	119	95	15	1	1	1	12	43	11	0	0	158	322	221	543	63	269	36	10	247	53	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	STL	—	119	87	20	2	1	1	20	30	11	0	0	230	432	310	743	80	333	25	17	360	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	ROK MLE	STL	0%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		285	36	9	260	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	18	ROK MLE	STL	—	130	105	16	1	1	1	13	47	11	0	0	152	310	210	520	57	259	36	10	248	54	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	STL	34%	193	168	33	5	1	2	16	60	7	3	1	196	293	274	567	77	288	31	8	269	68	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2028	20	MLB MLE	STL	48%	332	290	59	9	2	5	28	101	11	5	2	203	298	300	598	97	290	30	8	278	74	-10	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.3
2029	21	MLB MLE	STL	54%	437	382	80	12	3	8	37	130	15	7	3	209	304	319	624	110	291	30	8	284	79	-11	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.7
2030	22	MLB MLE	STL	57%	511	445	95	15	3	10	44	151	17	8	3	213	308	328	636	115	292	30	9	289	82	-11	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	STL	58%	520	453	96	15	3	10	45	153	17	8	3	212	307	325	631	113	293	29	9	291	83	-10	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	STL	57%	520	453	97	15	3	11	45	152	17	8	3	214	309	333	642	119	294	29	9	294	85	-9	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	STL	57%	520	453	97	15	3	11	45	152	17	8	3	214	309	333	642	119	294	29	9	295	86	-9	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	STL	57%	520	453	97	15	3	11	45	152	17	8	3	214	309	333	642	119	294	29	9	296	86	-8	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2035	27	MLB MLE	STL	55%	520	452	97	15	3	11	46	152	17	8	3	215	311	334	645	119	294	29	9	296	87	-8	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2036	28	MLB MLE	STL	55%	520	452	97	15	3	11	46	153	17	8	3	215	311	334	645	119	293	29	9	295	86	-9	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	STL	53%	520	452	96	15	3	11	46	154	17	8	3	212	309	332	641	119	292	30	9	293	85	-10	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.0
2038	30	MLB MLE	STL	53%	520	452	95	14	3	11	46	156	17	8	3	210	307	327	634	117	291	30	9	290	83	-11	+0	-2	+9	+11	0.8
2039	31	MLB MLE	STL	52%	504	437	91	14	3	10	45	152	17	7	3	208	307	323	629	114	288	30	9	286	80	-12	+0	-3	+9	+11	0.5
2040	32	MLB MLE	STL	56%	489	427	87	13	3	9	43	150	16	7	3	204	300	311	612	108	285	31	9	281	76	-14	+0	-4	+9	+11	0.2
2041	33	MLB MLE	STL	59%	473	413	82	12	3	8	42	147	15	7	3	199	296	300	596	102	281	31	9	275	72	-16	+0	-4	+8	+10	-0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	STL	34%	66	58	11	2	0	1	6	21	2	1	0	190	288	276	564	86	287	32	9	242	68	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	STL	48%	161	141	28	4	1	2	14	49	5	2	1	199	294	284	577	85	289	30	9	251	74	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	STL	54%	237	207	44	7	2	4	20	71	8	4	1	213	306	324	630	111	290	30	8	257	79	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2030	22	MLB CTX	STL	57%	289	252	53	8	2	5	25	85	10	4	2	210	307	317	624	107	291	29	9	261	82	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2031	23	MLB CTX	STL	58%	299	261	55	9	2	5	26	88	10	5	2	211	306	318	624	107	292	29	9	264	83	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2032	24	MLB CTX	STL	57%	296	259	56	9	2	6	25	87	10	5	2	216	310	336	645	120	293	29	8	266	85	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2033	25	MLB CTX	STL	57%	295	258	56	9	2	6	25	86	10	5	2	217	311	337	648	120	293	29	8	267	86	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	STL	57%	294	257	55	9	2	6	25	86	10	5	2	214	308	335	643	121	293	29	9	268	86	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	STL	55%	289	252	54	8	2	6	25	85	10	4	2	214	310	333	643	119	293	29	9	268	87	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2036	28	MLB CTX	STL	55%	286	249	53	8	2	6	25	84	10	4	2	213	310	333	643	120	292	29	9	267	86	-5	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.6
2037	29	MLB CTX	STL	53%	278	242	51	8	2	5	25	82	9	4	2	211	308	322	630	112	291	29	9	266	85	-5	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2038	30	MLB CTX	STL	53%	274	239	50	8	2	5	24	82	9	4	2	209	305	322	627	113	290	30	9	263	83	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2039	31	MLB CTX	STL	52%	263	229	47	7	1	5	23	79	9	4	1	205	303	310	613	105	287	30	9	259	80	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2040	32	MLB CTX	STL	56%	275	240	48	7	1	5	24	84	9	4	1	200	297	300	597	100	284	31	9	254	76	-8	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.2
2041	33	MLB CTX	STL	59%	279	243	48	7	1	5	25	87	9	4	1	198	296	296	592	99	280	31	9	248	72	-9	+0	-2	+5	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3881	3387	709	110	24	72	337	1156	130	59	23	209	305	320	625	110	293	30	9	262	81	-84	+3	-8	+69	+84	6.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	567	118	18	4	12	56	194	22	10	4	208	303	317	621	109	292	30	9	262	81	-14	+0	-1	+12	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	7171	6245	1304	200	42	139	623	2150	238	108	42	209	305	321	626	112	292	30	9	287	81	-156	+5	-15	+127	+154	11.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	119	18	4	13	56	195	22	10	4	210	306	325	631	115	293	30	9	287	81	-14	+0	-1	+12	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#6Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.0	3,958	77	59	211	303	324	+71	+36	9.4	7.6
/162	664	13	10	+11.9	+6.0	1.6	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Héctor Cabrera (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	187/287/260	73	285	1	1	32%	8%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	42	-2.9	192/236/269	77	243	5	3	22%	4%	41	-3.0	240/309/375	135	295	17	3	24%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕José Fermín 2017 · A	18	42→51	37→45	48→55	44	201/258/285	84	274	3	8	27%	7%	54	-2.0	203/252/278	75	241	4	11	17%	4%	50	-2.3	244/330/367	123	265	11	26	12%	10%	98	+0.7
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→50	45	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	37	-3.3	211/249/327	116	282	13	5	29%	5%	60	-1.6	225/268/375	150	277	17	3	25%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Yairo Muñoz 2013 · A	18	41→51	37→45	48→55	41	195/247/274	79	274	2	8	29%	6%	47	-2.6	202/253/288	86	262	6	7	24%	6%	53	-2.1	263/305/392	130	320	14	17	22%	5%	92	+0.4
✕Richard Ramirez 2023 · A	18	37	37→60	47→40	38	174/236/245	70	296	4	6	40%	7%	37	-3.3	193/257/301	108	312	11	5	39%	8%	58	-1.7	197/257/339	142	318	16	2	41%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Maximo Rivera 2011 · A	18	40	35→45	46→60	39	188/247/243	55	285	3	9	33%	6%	40	-3.0	208/263/297	89	272	9	19	26%	6%	59	-1.7	235/283/299	64	303	5	24	23%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	52	-2.2	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	68	-1.0	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	72	-0.3
●Maikel Franco 2011 · A	18	39→49	38→55	49→40	38	188/239/267	79	268	5	3	31%	5%	42	-2.9	221/260/340	119	276	12	3	24%	4%	68	-1.0	248/301/418	170	267	21	1	16%	6%	97	+1.1
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	43	-2.8	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	58	-1.7	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	50	-0.6
✕Robert Perez Jr. 2018 · A	18	36→46	38→55	47→45	35	181/226/259	78	272	6	7	35%	4%	36	-3.4	194/255/302	108	307	11	5	38%	6%	57	-1.8	216/294/379	163	305	22	2	35%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	39→48	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/281	91	262	7	9	29%	6%	49	-2.4	189/246/285	96	287	9	8	35%	7%	50	-2.3	206/266/327	121	281	14	11	31%	7%	64	-1.1
✕Agustín Ramírez 2021 · A	19	40→46	41→55	46→55	40	199/248/293	95	266	8	5	28%	5%	52	-2.2	209/270/337	128	287	13	8	30%	7%	71	-0.8	230/293/400	170	266	20	16	22%	7%	92	+0.7
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→41	39→55	47→45	39	169/233/258	89	267	6	8	37%	7%	39	-3.1	207/271/343	136	302	13	8	34%	8%	73	-0.6	206/286/370	164	268	21	5	30%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Marcus Wilson 2015 · A	18	39→49	36→50	48→50	38	183/242/249	66	297	4	8	38%	7%	40	-3.1	202/267/282	80	313	5	10	34%	8%	57	-1.8	214/282/310	96	313	7	11	31%	8%	67	-0.5
✕Brendan Rodgers 2016 · A	19	42→52	40→50	46→45	39	203/253/296	93	299	7	7	33%	6%	55	-2.0	227/270/352	125	293	13	6	26%	4%	74	-0.5	256/311/394	138	303	15	0	20%	6%	98	+0.8
✕Alejandro Selen 2007 · A	18	39	35→50	51→30	41	183/255/247	64	290	2	11	35%	8%	45	-2.7	203/258/279	76	265	4	7	24%	5%	53	-2.1	221/258/362	141	318	15	1	34%	3%	69	-0.4
✕Aaron Familia 2017 · A	18	38	38→40	48→40	45	181/270/258	78	284	6	4	36%	9%	54	-2.0	187/273/272	85	333	6	4	41%	9%	58	-1.7	167/258/250	82	313	7	3	44%	9%	46	-0.7
✕Martin Cervenka 2012 · A	19	40→48	36→45	50→40	39	191/243/261	70	284	3	6	33%	6%	42	-2.9	194/259/254	60	308	3	5	34%	8%	47	-2.5	221/267/330	109	291	11	1	27%	6%	66	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps