Luis Avila — OGILVIE

Luis Avila P DSL Reds

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 145 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

K%21.2%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	9	0	17	65	18	5	0	0%	1.9	18.8%	9.6%	9.2%	0.0%	1.59	2.73	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	9	0	17	65	18	5	0	0%	1.9	18.8%	9.6%	9.2%	0.0%	1.59	2.73	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	9	0	17	65	18	5	0	0%	1.9	27.7%	7.7%	20.0%	0.0%	1.59	1.86	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	15	0	24	93	22	4	1	0%	1.6	16.1%	5.4%	10.7%	1.5%	1.88	3.25	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	15	0	24	93	22	4	1	0%	1.6	16.1%	5.4%	10.7%	1.5%	1.88	3.25	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	15	0	24	93	22	4	1	0%	1.6	23.7%	4.3%	19.4%	1.1%	1.88	2.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	CIN	12	0	13	55	12	4	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	7.2%	14.0%	2.9%	4.22	4.22	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	CIN	22	0	23	96	21	7	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	7.2%	14.6%	2.9%	4.17	4.13	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	11	46	10	3	1	0%	1.1	21.8%	7.2%	14.6%	2.9%	4.17	4.13	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	10	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	7.2%	14.6%	2.9%	4.17	3.75	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	54	18	0%	1.1	21.8%	7.2%	14.6%	2.9%	4.17	3.75	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		24	0	41	158	27	11	1	0%	1.7	17.2%	7.1%	10.1%	0.9%	1.76	3.03	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	0	200	771	133	55	7	0%	1.7	17.2%	7.1%	10.1%	0.9%	1.76	3.03	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Avila (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	21.2%	7.2%	2.9%	—	4.13	21.8%	14.6%	23	-0.09	—	—	—
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	91
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	89
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	88
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	88
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	88
Enmanuel Marcano R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	20	SU	4.32	21.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	138	87
Denny Brady R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	20	SU	4.01	18.8%	5.7%	3.2%	.368	3.29	18.7%	10.1%	124	-0.72	3.14	160	87
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	86
Sean Boyle R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SU	4.70	21.3%	7.8%	4.4%	.342	2.87	22.6%	15.3%	86	-1.83	2.87	548	86
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	85
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	85
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	85
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	85
Mailon Arroyo R 2018 · 3.86 FIP	20	SU	3.86	23.4%	7.0%	3.4%	.375	4.63	18.4%	13.7%	41	+0.77	3.31	104	85
Josh Sborz R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	21	SU	3.92	18.1%	6.8%	2.7%	.314	3.74	18.2%	8.4%	295	-0.18	2.15	572	84
Osiris German R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.6%	8.7%	3.3%	.346	3.15	26.3%	15.5%	59	-1.11	3.11	187	84
Scott Williams R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	21	SU	3.39	22.0%	8.6%	1.9%	.238	3.73	19.3%	10.5%	76	+0.34	2.89	119	84
Joe Shaw R 2015 · 3.29 FIP	21	SU	3.29	20.6%	4.5%	2.5%	.306	4.38	15.3%	6.7%	300	+1.09	3.29	371	84
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	84
Jorge Julio R 2001 · 3.48 FIP	22	SU	3.48	22.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.348	4.31	20.4%	10.1%	199	+0.83	3.48	467	83