Rey Pacheco — OGILVIE

Rey Pacheco P DSL Twins

Age 19 RHP 5'9" / 189 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.14

FIP4.14

K%20.6%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	16	3	33	137	31	6	0	19%	2.1	15.4%	5.5%	9.9%	0.0%	3.00	2.49	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	16	3	33	137	31	6	0	19%	2.1	15.4%	5.5%	9.9%	0.0%	3.00	2.49	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	16	3	33	137	31	6	0	19%	2.1	22.6%	4.4%	18.2%	0.0%	3.00	1.77	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	19	MLB	MIN	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	20.6%	6.4%	14.1%	2.9%	4.14	4.14	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIN	30	0	31	132	28	9	4	0%	1.0	21.3%	6.5%	14.8%	2.8%	4.10	4.07	+0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIN	14	0	15	63	13	4	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	6.5%	14.8%	2.8%	4.10	4.07	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	15	65	14	4	2	0%	1.0	21.3%	6.5%	14.8%	2.8%	4.10	3.69	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	52	26	0%	1.1	21.3%	6.5%	14.8%	2.8%	4.10	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		16	3	33	137	21	8	0	19%	2.1	15.4%	5.5%	9.9%	0.0%	3.00	2.49	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	18	200	830	128	45	0	19%	2.1	15.4%	5.5%	9.9%	0.0%	3.00	2.49	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rey Pacheco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	20.6%	6.4%	2.9%	—	4.07	21.3%	14.8%	31	-0.07	—	—	—
David Davalillo R 2023 · 3.33 FIP	20	SW	3.33	18.6%	6.8%	1.7%	.292	3.31	20.7%	12.3%	305	-0.02	2.96	322	88
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	84
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	84
Andres Ortuno R 2021 · 3.22 FIP	19	SW	3.22	19.1%	7.2%	1.5%	.307	3.39	20.2%	12.0%	24	+0.17	3.22	109	84
Osiris German R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.6%	8.7%	3.3%	.346	3.15	26.3%	15.5%	59	-1.11	3.11	187	84
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	82
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	82
Clayton McGinness R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	19.4%	4.5%	3.3%	.291	4.63	18.7%	7.8%	84	+0.78	3.85	106	82
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	81
Ismael Cabrera R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	21	SU	3.56	19.0%	7.4%	2.1%	.250	5.19	17.4%	6.6%	117	+1.63	3.56	133	81
Denny Brady R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	20	SU	4.01	18.8%	5.7%	3.2%	.368	3.29	18.7%	10.1%	124	-0.72	3.14	160	81
J.T. Hintzen R 2018 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	20.1%	7.0%	1.7%	.303	4.37	24.1%	15.1%	123	+1.15	3.22	205	81
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	80
Osiel Rodriguez R 2022 · 3.38 FIP	20	SU	3.38	19.6%	6.6%	2.0%	.306	5.31	22.3%	7.4%	92	+1.93	3.38	124	80
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	80
Jose Martinez R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	18	SU	4.68	19.8%	5.2%	4.7%	.246	4.33	19.7%	10.6%	113	-0.35	3.17	138	80
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	80
Jiorgeny Casimiri R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	18	SU	3.73	16.4%	4.6%	2.6%	.263	7.61	17.0%	0.1%	31	+3.88	3.73	101	79
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	79
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.0%	6.5%	1.11	4.12
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00