Peyton Fosher — OGILVIE

Peyton Fosher P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%21.8%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	12	43	14	3	0	0%	2.1	32.6%	7.0%	25.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.23	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	12	43	14	3	0	0%	2.1	32.6%	7.0%	25.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.23	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	12	43	14	3	0	0%	2.1	32.6%	7.0%	25.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.56	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	36	7	73	332	84	47	11	19%	2.0	19.5%	16.3%	3.2%	4.1%	5.52	5.79	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	36	7	73	332	84	47	11	19%	2.0	19.5%	16.3%	3.2%	4.1%	5.52	5.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIA	36	7	73	332	84	47	11	19%	2.0	25.3%	14.2%	11.1%	3.3%	5.52	4.58	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIA	70	0	74	311	70	36	9	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.7%	10.9%	3.0%	4.78	4.71	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	71	0	74	315	72	34	9	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	3.0%	4.63	4.56	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	71	0	74	315	73	34	9	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.56	4.52	+0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	70	0	73	310	72	33	9	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	3.1%	4.56	4.56	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	68	0	71	301	69	33	9	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.9%	12.2%	3.2%	4.61	4.64	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	287	66	32	9	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.71	4.77	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	270	61	31	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	3.5%	4.85	4.95	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIA	30	0	32	135	30	16	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.7%	10.9%	3.0%	4.78	4.71	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	47	0	49	207	48	22	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	3.0%	4.63	4.56	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56	0	59	249	58	27	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.56	4.52	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	60	0	63	266	62	29	8	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	3.1%	4.56	4.56	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	60	0	63	266	61	29	8	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.9%	12.2%	3.2%	4.61	4.64	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIA	59	0	62	262	60	29	9	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.71	4.77	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIA	56	0	59	249	56	28	9	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	3.5%	4.85	4.95	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		368	0	387	1634	375	180	52	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.0%	11.9%	3.2%	4.66	4.29	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	93	27	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.0%	11.9%	3.2%	4.66	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		42	7	86	375	79	57	14	17%	2.0	21.0%	15.2%	5.8%	3.7%	4.73	5.27	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	16	200	875	184	133	32	17%	2.0	21.0%	15.2%	5.8%	3.7%	4.73	5.27	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Fosher (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	21.8%	13.0%	3.1%	—	4.60	22.9%	11.9%	223	-0.36	—	—	—
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	89
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	85
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	85
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	85
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	85
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	85
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	84
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	84
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	84
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	84
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	84
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	84
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	83
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	83
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	66	22.9%	11.1%	1.21	4.68
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81