Nick Falter
P
Lake Elsinore Storm
Age 23
RHP
6'5" / 240 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%22.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 28 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 2.0 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.95 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 93 | 398 | 86 | 35 | 11 | — | — | 21.6% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.64 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.27 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.27 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 0 | 142 | 599 | 143 | 53 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 3.85 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 202 | 75 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 28 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 36 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 2.0 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.95 | 4.83 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 0 | 200 | 863 | 133 | 86 | 28 | 0% | 2.0 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.95 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Falter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.21 | 23.8% | 15.1% | 119 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 91 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 90 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 89 |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 88 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 88 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 88 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 87 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2025 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.31 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.04 | 3.27 | 128 | 87 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 87 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 87 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.63 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | +0.04 | 2.94 | 385 | 87 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 87 |
| Austin Ross R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 87 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.03 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.41 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.38 | 4.03 | 130 | 87 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .341 | 4.68 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +1.00 | 3.68 | 256 | 87 |
| Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 86 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 86 |
| Kyle Martin R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 86 |
| Ronnie Muck R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.36 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .316 | 4.77 | 15.0% | 0.3% | 75 | +1.41 | 3.36 | 137 | 86 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 39 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 1.17 | 4.27 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |