Nick Falter — OGILVIE

Nick Falter P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%20.7%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	39	1	72	313	66	27	9	3%	1.8	15.8%	10.1%	5.8%	3.6%	4.12	5.04	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	39	1	72	313	66	27	9	3%	1.8	15.8%	10.1%	5.8%	3.6%	4.12	5.04	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	SD	22	0	45	181	43	14	3	0%	2.0	23.8%	7.7%	16.0%	1.7%	3.02	2.98	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	SD	17	1	27	132	23	13	6	6%	1.6	17.4%	9.8%	7.6%	4.5%	5.93	5.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	69	0	72	305	66	28	9	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	70	0	73	309	68	28	9	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.9%	13.1%	3.0%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	70	0	73	309	69	28	9	0%	1.0	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	3.0%	4.39	4.36	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	69	0	72	304	68	27	9	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.0%	4.40	4.40	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	67	0	70	295	66	27	9	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	3.1%	4.45	4.48	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	64	0	67	282	62	26	9	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	3.3%	4.55	4.62	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	60	0	63	265	57	26	9	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.7%	11.9%	3.5%	4.70	4.79	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	31	131	28	12	4	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	47	0	49	207	46	18	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.9%	13.1%	3.0%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	55	0	58	245	55	22	7	0%	1.1	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	3.0%	4.39	4.36	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	58	0	61	258	58	23	8	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.0%	4.40	4.40	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	59	0	62	262	58	24	8	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	3.1%	4.45	4.48	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	58	0	61	258	57	24	8	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	3.3%	4.55	4.62	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	55	0	58	245	53	24	9	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.7%	11.9%	3.5%	4.70	4.79	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		362	0	380	1603	353	147	50	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.2%	12.9%	3.1%	4.49	4.13	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	77	26	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.2%	12.9%	3.1%	4.49	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		39	1	72	313	50	31	11	3%	1.8	15.8%	10.1%	5.8%	3.6%	4.12	5.04	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	3	200	869	138	87	32	3%	1.8	15.8%	10.1%	5.8%	3.6%	4.12	5.04	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Falter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	20.7%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.41	22.0%	13.0%	219	-0.21	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	95
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	90
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	89
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	89
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	88
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	87
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	87
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	87
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	87
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	87
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	86
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	86
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	86
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	86
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Luis Eusebio R 2019 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	131	86
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	86
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	65	21.9%	9.2%	1.21	4.50
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04