Alex Breckheimer

Alex Breckheimer P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 270 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%22.7%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	20	6	4	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	20.0%	10.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	20	6	4	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	20.0%	10.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2025	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	20	6	4	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	20.0%	10.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	2	33	141	36	15	4	20%	3.3	18.9%	12.6%	6.3%	3.7%	5.40	5.12	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	2	33	141	36	15	4	20%	3.3	18.9%	12.6%	6.3%	3.7%	5.40	5.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	STL	10	2	33	141	36	15	4	20%	3.3	25.5%	10.6%	14.9%	2.8%	5.40	3.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	32	0	34	143	34	14	4	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	3.0%	4.40	4.34	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	16	0	17	72	17	7	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	3.0%	4.40	4.34	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	70	16	7	2	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	3.0%	4.40	3.96	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	84	24	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	3.0%	4.40	3.96	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		14	2	37	161	33	22	5	14%	2.7	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	3.2%	5.79	4.87	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	11	200	862	175	116	28	14%	2.7	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	3.2%	5.79	4.87	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Breckheimer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	22.7%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.34	23.5%	13.9%	34	-0.18	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	90
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	84
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	84
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	83
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	83
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	82
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	81
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	81
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	80
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	80
Ian Koenig R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	22	SU	3.69	20.0%	6.6%	2.6%	.310	5.39	15.1%	7.5%	284	+1.70	3.69	303	80
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	80
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	79
David Perez R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	21.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.292	5.19	15.6%	1.9%	67	+1.19	4.00	151	79
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	79
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	79
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	79
Parker Curry R 2017 · 3.73 FIP	23	SU	3.73	22.5%	8.2%	2.7%	.341	4.62	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.89	3.73	256	79
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	78
Bryan Bonnell R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	21.3%	11.3%	2.9%	.338	4.46	16.8%	10.5%	179	+0.14	3.55	333	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	23.2%	9.9%	1.15	4.45
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47