Carson Fischer

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#436ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AWSH	2	0	2	0.00	0.10	50.0%	0.0%	—	K 50.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP -1.12
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	23	125	2.53	2.88	16.9%	5.9%	—	K 12.7% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.46
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	—	—	0	4.58	4.58	13.9%	7.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBWSH	7	7	39	4.46	4.39	16.2%	7.0%	0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBWSH	9	9	56	4.36	4.30	17.6%	7.0%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsEnrique Gonzalez (age 24) · Connor Noland (age 24) · Brooks Hall (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%13.9%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP87

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	125	492	83	29	4	92%	5.0	12.7%	6.8%	5.8%	1.0%	2.53	3.46	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	125	492	83	29	4	92%	5.0	12.7%	6.8%	5.8%	1.0%	2.53	3.46	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	125	492	83	29	4	92%	5.0	16.9%	5.9%	11.0%	0.8%	2.53	2.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.9%	7.0%	6.9%	2.5%	4.58	4.58	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	90	380	62	27	10	100%	6.0	16.2%	7.0%	9.2%	2.6%	4.46	4.39	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	84	356	63	25	9	100%	6.0	17.6%	7.0%	10.7%	2.6%	4.36	4.30	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	80	337	60	24	9	100%	6.1	17.8%	7.1%	10.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.33	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	76	319	57	23	9	100%	5.8	17.8%	7.3%	10.6%	2.8%	4.38	4.41	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	70	295	52	22	9	100%	5.8	17.6%	7.5%	10.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.54	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	63	267	46	21	8	100%	5.7	17.2%	7.8%	9.5%	3.1%	4.62	4.72	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	56	238	40	19	8	100%	6.3	16.8%	8.1%	8.7%	3.3%	4.80	4.92	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	50	210	34	18	8	100%	6.2	16.4%	8.5%	7.9%	3.6%	5.01	5.15	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	39	165	27	11	4	100%	5.6	16.2%	7.0%	9.2%	2.6%	4.46	4.39	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	56	236	42	17	6	100%	6.2	17.6%	7.0%	10.7%	2.6%	4.36	4.30	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	62	262	47	19	7	100%	6.2	17.8%	7.1%	10.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.33	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	63	266	47	19	7	100%	6.3	17.8%	7.3%	10.6%	2.8%	4.38	4.41	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	61	258	45	19	8	100%	6.1	17.6%	7.5%	10.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.54	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	57	241	41	19	7	100%	5.7	17.2%	7.8%	9.5%	3.1%	4.62	4.72	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	52	220	37	18	7	100%	5.8	16.8%	8.1%	8.7%	3.3%	4.80	4.92	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	46	194	32	17	7	100%	5.8	16.4%	8.5%	7.9%	3.6%	5.01	5.15	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	435	1837	318	138	54	100%	6.0	17.3%	7.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.54	4.20	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	146	63	25	100%	6.0	17.3%	7.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.54	4.20	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		27	23	127	498	65	34	5	85%	4.7	13.1%	6.8%	6.3%	1.0%	2.49	3.41	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	36	200	786	103	53	8	85%	4.7	13.1%	6.8%	6.3%	1.0%	2.49	3.41	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 65 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.68 (+0.64)K% 21.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.57%	—	×0.740	15.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.31%	—	×1.180	5.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.39%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.51%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 60 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.31 (+0.55)K% 11.8% → 9.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.81%	—	×0.770	9.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.59%	—	×1.150	8.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.58%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Fischer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	13.9%	7.0%	2.5%	—	4.34	17.2%	10.2%	254	-0.24	—	—	—
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	91
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.26	16.4%	8.7%	340	+0.28	3.95	448	88
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	87
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	87
Jake Brooks R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	13.6%	5.9%	2.2%	.251	3.93	14.7%	9.6%	275	+0.02	3.28	390	86
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	86
Claudio Vargas R 2003 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP	4.75	12.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.251	5.02	16.5%	8.5%	418	+0.27	3.66	765	86
Hyrum Formo R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	10.5%	5.9%	2.3%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	107	85
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	85
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	85
Brannon Easterling R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP	4.38	11.2%	6.7%	2.5%	.293	3.95	12.9%	5.1%	252	-0.43	3.50	334	85
Javier Solano R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	11.0%	6.2%	3.6%	.331	4.12	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.84	3.67	506	84
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	84
Jake Walters R 2019 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP	3.51	17.4%	9.2%	1.3%	.260	3.78	18.2%	7.6%	97	+0.27	3.51	261	84
Mike Thompson R 2006 · 4.95 FIP	25	SP	4.95	8.6%	6.4%	3.2%	.272	4.85	6.7%	0.0%	16	-0.10	4.85	108	84
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	84
DJ Baxendale R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SP	3.79	14.5%	8.6%	1.5%	.316	3.06	17.2%	11.3%	259	-0.73	2.88	426	84
Jordan Pries R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	14.0%	7.5%	2.6%	.307	4.43	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.14	4.29	219	84
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	84
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	73	16.8%	7.4%	1.09	4.53
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Adrian Devine ('73-'80, 2 WAR*)	1.9	65	16.7%*	7.8%*	1.12*	4.45*
Jack Aker ('64-'74, 4 WAR*)	3.7	75	16.6%*	8.5%*	1.08*	4.04*
Brian Duensing ('18)	3.8	85	16.0%	7.9%	0.92	4.19
Rick White ('07)	4.3	72	14.6%	7.8%	0.95	4.45