Carson Fischer — OGILVIE

Carson Fischer P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.8 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%18.3%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	25	23	125	492	83	29	4	92%	5.0	12.7%	6.8%	5.8%	1.0%	2.53	3.46	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	25	23	125	492	83	29	4	92%	5.0	12.7%	6.8%	5.8%	1.0%	2.53	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	WSH	14	14	65	255	55	11	1	100%	4.6	21.6%	4.3%	17.3%	0.4%	2.08	2.04	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	WSH	11	9	60	237	28	18	3	82%	5.4	11.8%	7.6%	4.2%	1.3%	3.02	3.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	125	529	104	40	15	100%	5.7	19.6%	7.5%	12.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.35	+0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	127	535	109	40	15	100%	5.8	20.4%	7.4%	13.0%	2.9%	4.32	4.27	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	127	535	111	39	15	100%	6.0	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	2.9%	4.27	4.24	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	125	527	110	39	15	100%	5.9	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	2.9%	4.27	4.28	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	121	512	106	39	16	100%	6.1	20.7%	7.6%	13.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.36	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	116	489	100	38	16	100%	6.1	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	109	459	92	37	16	100%	6.0	20.1%	8.1%	12.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	102	429	84	36	15	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	3.6%	4.75	4.87	+0.0
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	94	396	76	35	15	100%	5.9	19.2%	8.9%	10.4%	3.9%	4.96	5.09	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	54	228	45	17	7	100%	5.4	19.6%	7.5%	12.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.35	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	84	355	72	26	10	100%	6.0	20.4%	7.4%	13.0%	2.9%	4.32	4.27	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	100	422	88	31	12	100%	5.9	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	2.9%	4.27	4.24	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	106	448	93	33	13	100%	5.9	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	2.9%	4.27	4.28	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	108	456	94	35	14	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.6%	13.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.36	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	105	443	91	35	14	100%	5.8	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	100	422	85	34	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.1%	12.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	94	397	78	34	14	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	3.6%	4.75	4.87	+0.0
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	88	372	71	33	14	100%	5.9	19.2%	8.9%	10.4%	3.9%	4.96	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	141	840	3547	718	278	113	100%	6.0	20.2%	7.8%	12.4%	3.2%	4.47	4.13	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	171	66	27	100%	6.0	20.2%	7.8%	12.4%	3.2%	4.47	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		27	23	127	498	65	34	5	85%	4.7	13.1%	6.8%	6.3%	1.0%	2.49	3.41	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	36	200	786	103	53	8	85%	4.7	13.1%	6.8%	6.3%	1.0%	2.49	3.41	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Fischer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	18.3%	7.7%	2.9%	—	4.29	20.3%	12.9%	379	-0.21	—	—	—
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	86
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	84
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	83
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	81
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	80
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	79
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	79
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	79
Josh Roberson R 2019 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	17.7%	9.4%	1.6%	.298	5.37	21.7%	5.5%	60	+1.70	3.17	229	78
Matthew DeRosier R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP-	3.89	16.6%	6.6%	2.5%	.294	5.67	15.1%	6.0%	57	+1.78	2.72	200	78
Domingo Germán R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP	3.90	14.5%	6.4%	2.2%	.260	3.89	25.3%	17.5%	352	-0.01	3.29	777	78
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	77
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	77
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	106	20.2%	7.8%	1.22	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01