Jake Brooks

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#667ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	23	21	120	2.18	2.92	19.0%	4.8%	—	K 13.6% · BB 5.9% · FIP 3.91
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	23	116	4.33	2.72	20.0%	4.9%	—	K 15.7% · BB 5.6% · FIP 3.28
2026	25	MIX2 levels	29	28	159	4.42	3.91	16.9%	4.7%	—	K 14.0% · BB 4.7% · FIP 4.40
2027PROJ	26	MLBCOL	2	2	9	4.71	4.71	12.3%	5.1%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBCOL	8	8	48	4.93	4.95	13.3%	5.5%	0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBCOL	11	11	64	4.97	5.01	13.8%	5.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.4M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control60Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 1.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsKyle Snyder (age 25) · J.D. Martin (age 26) · Josh Banks (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%12.3%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	2	0	2	12	0	2	0	0%	1.2	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	11.57	5.21	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	2	0	2	12	0	2	0	0%	1.2	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	11.57	5.67	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	120	479	91	23	7	91%	5.2	13.6%	5.9%	7.7%	2.2%	2.18	3.91	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	120	479	91	23	7	91%	5.2	13.6%	5.9%	7.7%	2.2%	2.18	3.91	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	120	479	91	23	7	91%	5.2	19.0%	4.8%	14.2%	1.5%	2.18	2.92	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	116	485	97	24	6	100%	5.1	15.7%	5.6%	10.1%	1.4%	4.33	3.28	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	116	485	97	24	6	100%	5.1	15.7%	5.6%	10.1%	1.4%	4.33	3.28	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	116	485	97	24	6	100%	5.1	20.0%	4.9%	15.1%	1.2%	4.33	2.72	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	159	675	114	32	20	97%	5.5	14.0%	4.7%	9.3%	3.4%	4.42	4.40	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	159	675	114	32	20	97%	5.5	14.0%	4.7%	9.3%	3.4%	4.42	4.40	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	159	675	114	32	20	97%	5.5	16.9%	4.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.42	3.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	COL	2	2	9	38	5	2	1	100%	4.5	12.3%	5.1%	7.2%	3.0%	4.71	4.71	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	114	480	64	26	14	100%	6.0	13.3%	5.5%	7.9%	3.0%	4.68	4.70	+0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	103	434	60	25	13	100%	6.0	13.8%	5.8%	8.1%	3.1%	4.71	4.75	+0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	93	394	55	24	13	100%	5.8	14.0%	6.1%	7.9%	3.3%	4.79	4.85	+0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	84	355	49	23	12	100%	6.0	13.9%	6.4%	7.4%	3.4%	4.92	5.02	+0.4
2032	31	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	75	317	43	21	12	100%	6.2	13.5%	6.8%	6.7%	3.7%	5.10	5.22	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	48	203	27	11	7	100%	6.0	13.3%	5.5%	7.9%	3.5%	4.93	4.95	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	64	270	37	16	10	100%	5.8	13.8%	5.8%	8.1%	3.6%	4.97	5.01	+0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	68	287	40	17	11	100%	6.2	14.0%	6.1%	7.9%	3.7%	5.06	5.12	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	67	283	39	18	11	100%	6.1	13.9%	6.4%	7.4%	4.0%	5.21	5.31	+0.3
2032	31	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	63	266	36	18	11	100%	6.3	13.5%	6.8%	6.7%	4.2%	5.41	5.53	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	311	1313	180	81	50	100%	6.0	13.7%	6.1%	7.6%	3.8%	5.12	4.81	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	116	52	32	100%	6.0	13.7%	6.1%	7.6%	3.8%	5.12	4.81	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		77	72	397	1651	236	89	41	94%	5.2	14.3%	5.4%	8.9%	2.5%	3.76	3.94	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	36	200	832	119	45	21	94%	5.2	14.3%	5.4%	8.9%	2.5%	3.76	3.94	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 80 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.03 (+0.24)K% 14.0% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.04%	—	×0.860	12.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.68%	—	×0.900	4.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 78 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.79 (+0.77)K% 19.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.82%	—	×0.810	16.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.80%	—	×1.100	5.29%
HR / BF /BF	3.60%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.32%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 77 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.10 (+0.60)K% 20.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.12%	—	×0.770	15.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.64%	—	×1.150	5.34%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.006	×1.250	1.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 39 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.63 (+0.48)K% 19.8% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.75%	—	×0.810	16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.100	6.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.103	×1.200	2.02%

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 115 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.91 (+0.90)K% 18.4% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.40%	—	×0.740	13.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.98%	—	×1.180	5.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷0.888	×1.300	2.22%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Brooks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	12.3%	5.1%	3.0%	—	4.76	13.7%	7.9%	310	+0.05	—	—	—
Kyle Snyder R 2003 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	10.7%	4.9%	3.0%	.280	4.22	16.6%	11.0%	96	-0.26	3.80	236	89
J.D. Martin R 2009 · 5.18 FIP	26	SP	5.18	10.9%	5.9%	4.1%	.263	4.79	14.6%	9.9%	48	-0.39	4.79	414	87
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	86
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	86
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	85
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	84
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	84
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	84
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	84
Nick Petree R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	11.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	122	84
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	83
Wes Obermueller R 2003 · 4.93 FIP	26	SP	4.93	11.2%	7.6%	3.3%	.301	4.77	11.1%	2.0%	183	-0.16	4.72	308	83
Felipe Arredondo R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	28	SP	3.93	12.8%	4.5%	2.5%	.355	4.33	16.0%	9.1%	153	+0.40	3.92	337	82
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	82
Dustin Beggs R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	15.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.329	5.09	11.3%	3.6%	48	+0.70	3.40	407	82
Hyrum Formo R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	10.5%	5.9%	2.3%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	107	82
Marco Quevedo R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	9.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.262	4.67	11.9%	6.3%	135	+0.54	4.13	300	81
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	81
Mario Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	12.6%	6.0%	2.8%	.302	4.20	16.2%	10.8%	233	-0.12	3.94	368	80
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP	4.61	16.0%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.54	21.7%	13.5%	105	-1.07	2.42	444	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	93	13.5%	5.9%	1.24	4.80
Jeff Karstens ('12)	3.0	99	13.1%	6.1%	1.22	4.44
Ed Lynch ('80-'87, 4 WAR*)	4.7	134	13.3%*	5.7%*	1.29*	4.60*
Mark Knudson ('85-'93, -0 WAR*)	2.4	96	12.2%*	5.9%*	1.44*	5.03*
John Halama ('06)	4.6	101	12.3%	6.9%	1.12	4.65
Gil Heredia ('01)	4.8	95	13.4%	5.4%	1.08	4.46
Bill Long ('85-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.6	130	14.8%*	6.2%*	1.31*	4.45*