Jake Brooks — OGILVIE

Jake Brooks P Hartford Yard Goats

+1.3 WAR

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2027

ERA4.19

FIP4.19

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.6%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%11.5%

IP116

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.6peak

2027

K†4545

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	22	ROK	FCL Marlins	2	0	2	12	0	2	0	—	—	—	11.57	—	—
2024	23	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	23	21	120	479	91	23	7	13.6%	5.9%	2.5%	2.18	4.05	+1.7
2025	24	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	23	116	485	97	24	6	15.7%	5.6%	1.5%	4.33	3.28	+2.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	3	3	14	57	24	2	2	34.1%	3.9%	4.2%	3.86	3.02	+0.3
ROS	25	MLB	COL	21	21	116	489	91	35	12	18.6%	7.1%	2.5%	4.19	4.19	+1.5
2026 Total	25	MLB	COL	—	—	130	546	115	37	14	21.1%	6.7%	2.6%	4.15	4.06	+1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	COL	22	22	123	518	101	37	13	19.5%	7.1%	2.6%	4.16	4.14	+1.6
2028	27	MLB	COL	23	23	126	532	105	38	14	19.7%	7.2%	2.6%	4.16	4.16	+1.6
2029	28	MLB	COL	23	23	126	532	105	39	14	19.8%	7.3%	2.7%	4.18	4.19	+1.6
2030	29	MLB	COL	22	22	123	520	103	38	14	19.7%	7.3%	2.7%	4.22	4.24	+1.5
2031	30	MLB	COL	22	22	120	505	98	38	14	19.5%	7.4%	2.8%	4.27	4.30	+1.4
2032	31	MLB	COL	21	21	115	487	94	37	14	19.3%	7.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.37	+1.2
2033	32	MLB	COL	20	20	111	467	89	36	14	19.0%	7.7%	2.9%	4.41	4.46	+1.1
2034	33	MLB	COL	19	19	106	446	83	35	13	18.7%	7.9%	3.0%	4.50	4.56	+0.9
2035	34	MLB	COL	18	18	100	424	78	34	13	18.3%	8.1%	3.1%	4.60	4.67	+0.7
2036	35	MLB	COL	17	17	95	399	72	33	13	17.9%	8.3%	3.2%	4.71	4.79	+0.5
2037	36	MLB	COL	16	16	88	374	65	32	13	17.5%	8.6%	3.3%	4.84	4.92	+0.3
2038	37	MLB	COL	15	15	82	347	59	31	12	17.1%	8.9%	3.5%	4.98	5.07	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			51	47	252	1033	161	59	21	15.5%	5.8%	2.1%	3.35	3.64	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—			40	37	200	819	128	47	17	15.5%	5.8%	2.1%	3.35	3.64	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Brooks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	18.6%	7.1%	2.5%	—	4.16	19.7%	12.5%	375	-0.03	—	—	—
Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	25	SP-	4.16	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.02	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.14	3.45	274	92
Casey Delgado R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	25	SP-	3.90	14.3%	5.6%	2.4%	.283	4.08	13.7%	3.9%	259	+0.18	3.90	364	91
Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.24 FIP	25	SP-	3.24	18.3%	7.1%	1.4%	.291	3.82	13.8%	5.0%	105	+0.58	3.24	211	91
Patrick Johnson R 2028 · 3.89 FIP	27	SP-	3.89	17.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.286	4.13	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.24	3.89	248	90
Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	90
Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP-	3.85	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.58	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.73	3.85	141	89
Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	25	SP-	3.97	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.23	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.26	3.97	171	89
Brennan Smith R 2026 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP-	3.27	15.7%	6.4%	1.2%	.291	10.48	6.4%	-6.6%	14	+7.21	3.27	116	89
Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	89
Jared Mortensen R 2028 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	5.02	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.60	4.42	200	89
Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	25	SP-	4.23	19.5%	8.7%	3.1%	.309	3.76	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.47	3.22	907	88
Jason Forjet R 2026 · 3.36 FIP	25	SP-	3.36	17.0%	5.3%	1.9%	.290	4.48	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.12	3.36	197	88
Joe Wieland R 2026 · 3.45 FIP	25	SP-	3.45	16.6%	5.4%	1.9%	.352	4.28	18.6%	11.3%	124	+0.83	3.45	270	88
Wes Parsons R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP-	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.00	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.44	3.00	483	88
Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	25	SP-	4.06	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.28	3.77	725	88
Ian Mejia R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	25	SP-	3.95	17.0%	8.1%	2.3%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	373	88
Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	25	SP-	4.04	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.89	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.85	3.58	204	88
Terance Marin R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP-	3.60	13.4%	6.1%	1.6%	.291	4.98	11.2%	3.5%	110	+1.38	3.60	322	88
Garrett Edwards R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	88
Gabriel Arias R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP-	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	195	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.6	$14M	+$13M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.2	$11M	+$9M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.1	$11M	+$8M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.9	$5M	+$1M
Totals		$11M		$67M	+$56M