Jake Brooks — OGILVIE

Jake Brooks P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION146 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%13.8%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	2	0	2	12	0	2	0	0%	1.2	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	11.57	5.21	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	2	0	2	12	0	2	0	0%	1.2	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	11.57	5.21	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	2	0	2	12	0	2	0	0%	1.2	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	11.57	5.67	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	120	479	91	23	7	91%	5.2	13.6%	5.9%	7.7%	2.2%	2.18	3.91	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	120	479	91	23	7	91%	5.2	13.6%	5.9%	7.7%	2.2%	2.18	3.91	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	120	479	91	23	7	91%	5.2	19.0%	4.8%	14.2%	1.5%	2.18	2.92	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	116	485	97	24	6	100%	5.1	15.7%	5.6%	10.1%	1.4%	4.33	3.28	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	116	485	97	24	6	100%	5.1	15.7%	5.6%	10.1%	1.4%	4.33	3.28	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	116	485	97	24	6	100%	5.1	20.0%	4.9%	15.1%	1.2%	4.33	2.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	27	27	146	627	103	31	18	100%	5.4	13.4%	5.0%	8.5%	3.3%	4.70	4.43	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	27	27	146	627	103	31	18	100%	5.4	13.4%	5.0%	8.5%	3.3%	4.70	4.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	COL	15	15	78	333	66	16	12	100%	5.2	19.8%	4.8%	15.0%	3.6%	4.71	4.01	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	COL	12	12	67	294	37	15	6	100%	5.6	12.6%	5.1%	7.5%	2.0%	4.68	3.80	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	COL	1	1	7	31	4	2	1	100%	7.4	13.8%	5.8%	8.0%	2.5%	4.42	4.42	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	153	658	107	33	19	—	—	16.3%	5.0%	11.3%	2.9%	4.68	4.43	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	143	603	93	36	15	100%	5.9	15.4%	5.9%	9.5%	2.5%	4.36	4.33	+1.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	141	594	94	37	16	100%	6.1	15.9%	6.2%	9.7%	2.6%	4.36	4.36	+0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	136	576	93	37	16	100%	5.9	16.1%	6.4%	9.7%	2.7%	4.40	4.44	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	130	550	88	37	16	100%	5.9	16.0%	6.7%	9.3%	2.9%	4.50	4.57	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	122	517	81	36	16	100%	6.1	15.6%	7.0%	8.7%	3.1%	4.65	4.74	+0.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	114	482	73	35	16	100%	6.0	15.2%	7.3%	7.9%	3.3%	4.83	4.94	-0.1
2033	32	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	106	446	66	34	16	100%	5.9	14.8%	7.7%	7.1%	3.6%	5.03	5.17	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	63	266	41	16	8	100%	6.3	15.4%	5.9%	9.5%	2.9%	4.57	4.54	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	89	376	60	23	11	100%	5.9	15.9%	6.2%	9.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	+0.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	103	435	70	28	14	100%	6.1	16.1%	6.4%	9.7%	3.2%	4.63	4.67	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	106	448	72	30	15	100%	5.9	16.0%	6.7%	9.3%	3.3%	4.74	4.81	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	105	443	69	31	16	100%	5.8	15.6%	7.0%	8.7%	3.6%	4.91	5.00	+0.2
2032	31	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	101	426	65	31	16	100%	5.9	15.2%	7.3%	7.9%	3.8%	5.11	5.22	-0.0
2033	32	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	96	405	60	31	17	100%	6.0	14.8%	7.7%	7.1%	4.1%	5.33	5.47	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	111	664	2802	437	190	97	100%	6.0	15.6%	6.8%	8.8%	3.5%	4.85	4.54	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	132	57	29	100%	6.0	15.6%	6.8%	8.8%	3.5%	4.85	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		75	71	384	1603	225	88	39	95%	5.1	14.1%	5.5%	8.5%	2.4%	3.84	3.93	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	37	200	835	117	46	20	95%	5.1	14.1%	5.5%	8.5%	2.4%	3.84	3.93	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Brooks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	13.8%	5.8%	2.5%	—	4.38	15.8%	9.6%	420	-0.04	—	—	—
Jordan Pries R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	14.0%	7.5%	2.6%	.307	4.43	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.14	4.29	219	91
Josh Roeder R 2018 · 4.74 FIP	25	SP	4.74	12.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.276	4.71	15.1%	6.4%	83	-0.03	4.71	175	88
Max Beatty R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP	4.31	11.8%	3.7%	3.2%	.264	3.88	13.2%	6.8%	46	-0.43	3.88	117	87
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	86
Wily Peralta R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	12.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.314	4.43	18.5%	8.4%	312	-0.07	3.98	748	86
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	85
Casey Delgado R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	25	SP	3.88	14.3%	5.6%	2.3%	.283	4.08	13.7%	3.9%	259	+0.20	3.88	364	85
Shane Greene R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	13.0%	6.6%	3.0%	.309	3.60	24.1%	15.6%	191	-0.90	2.86	484	84
Dallas Beeler R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SP	3.47	15.1%	7.6%	1.2%	.301	7.35	10.0%	1.5%	11	+3.88	3.47	122	84
Javier Solano R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	11.0%	6.2%	3.6%	.331	4.12	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.84	3.67	506	84
Josh Prevost R 2016 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP	3.62	12.4%	5.5%	1.6%	.369	3.49	13.7%	7.8%	71	-0.13	3.49	221	84
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	83
Jake McCasland R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP	4.03	15.9%	7.5%	2.4%	.355	4.34	12.8%	3.3%	106	+0.31	3.07	367	83
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	83
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	83
Joe Wieland R 2015 · 3.38 FIP	25	SP	3.38	16.6%	5.4%	1.8%	.352	4.27	18.6%	11.3%	124	+0.89	3.38	270	83
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	83
David Reyes R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	10.4%	5.0%	3.0%	.267	3.86	13.0%	6.8%	263	-0.67	3.42	465	83
Hyrum Formo R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	10.5%	5.9%	2.3%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	107	83
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.27	13.7%	6.7%	376	-0.13	3.78	501	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	122	15.5%	6.6%	1.12	4.55
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20