Jake Brooks
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.5 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
K%13.8%
BB%6.1%
K-BB%7.7%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 0.0% | 16.7% | -16.7% | 0.0% | 11.57 | 5.21 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 0.0% | 16.7% | -16.7% | 0.0% | 11.57 | 5.67 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 120 | 479 | 91 | 23 | 7 | 91% | 5.2 | 13.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 2.18 | 4.09 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 120 | 479 | 91 | 23 | 7 | 91% | 5.2 | 19.0% | 4.8% | 14.2% | 1.5% | 2.18 | 2.92 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 116 | 485 | 97 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 1.4% | 4.33 | 3.24 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 116 | 485 | 97 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.0% | 4.9% | 15.1% | 1.2% | 4.33 | 2.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 17 | 17 | 89 | 379 | 77 | 18 | 13 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.1% | 5.3% | 10.8% | 4.3% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 40 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 157 | 667 | 117 | 35 | 20 | — | — | 17.5% | 5.3% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.64 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 13.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 53 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 337 | 60 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.9% | 5.6% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.12 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 77 | 327 | 59 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 5.9% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.21 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 56 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 12 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.9% | 5.6% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 44 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.1% | 5.9% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 45 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 34 | 34 | 206 | 871 | 152 | 52 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.10 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 50 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 65 | 61 | 328 | 1355 | 202 | 77 | 35 | 94% | 5.0 | 14.9% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 3.99 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 37 | 200 | 827 | 123 | 47 | 21 | 94% | 5.0 | 14.9% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Brooks (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 2.5% | — | 4.23 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 238 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.15 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .307 | 4.55 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.40 | 4.15 | 219 | 90 |
| Max Beatty R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.32 | 11.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | .264 | 3.69 | 13.2% | 6.8% | 46 | -0.63 | 3.69 | 117 | 86 |
| Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 86 |
| Wily Peralta R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.64 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .314 | 4.52 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.12 | 4.02 | 748 | 85 |
| Shane Greene R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 85 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.54 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.4% | .301 | 7.32 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.78 | 3.54 | 122 | 85 |
| Javier Solano R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 11.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .331 | 4.06 | 12.3% | 7.3% | 275 | -0.93 | 3.63 | 506 | 84 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .297 | 3.33 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.90 | 2.82 | 536 | 84 |
| Jake McCasland R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.02 | 15.9% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .355 | 4.54 | 12.8% | 3.3% | 106 | +0.52 | 3.27 | 367 | 83 |
| Casey Delgado R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.29 | 14.3% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .283 | 4.02 | 13.7% | 3.9% | 259 | -0.27 | 4.01 | 364 | 83 |
| Josh Prevost R 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.67 | 12.4% | 5.5% | 1.7% | .369 | 3.46 | 13.7% | 7.8% | 71 | -0.21 | 3.46 | 221 | 83 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 83 |
| Hyrum Formo R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 10.5% | 5.9% | 2.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 107 | 83 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 16.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | .352 | 4.50 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 124 | +0.94 | 3.56 | 270 | 83 |
| Colin Welmon R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.69 | 12.0% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 142 | 83 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.15 | 12.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | .276 | 4.75 | 15.1% | 6.4% | 83 | -0.40 | 4.75 | 175 | 83 |
| Nick Petree R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.12 | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 122 | 82 |
| David Reyes R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 10.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.76 | 13.0% | 6.8% | 263 | -0.70 | 3.31 | 465 | 82 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 81 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2029 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 79 | 16.6% | 6.0% | 1.03 | 4.32 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Alex Claudio ('21) | 5 | 59 | 16.3% | 6.1% | 0.76 | 3.66 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Brandon Kintzler ('21) | 6 | 50 | 16.2% | 6.3% | 0.91 | 3.57 |