Jhon Lucena — OGILVIE

Jhon LucenaOF DSL Cubs Red

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 159 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj PA

wRC+47

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .251 / .263

PA66

HR0

K%32

BB%6

ISO71

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	124	112	20	7	0	0	11	40	1	4	2	179	258	241	499	62	278	32	9	235	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	124	116	12	4	0	0	7	50	1	4	2	103	161	138	299	34	185	40	6	143	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	124	116	12	4	0	0	7	50	1	4	2	103	161	138	299	34	182	40	6	143	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	—	124	112	20	7	0	0	11	40	1	4	2	179	258	241	499	62	278	32	9	235	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	124	115	12	4	0	0	7	50	1	4	2	104	161	139	300	35	185	40	6	143	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	124	115	12	4	0	0	7	50	1	4	2	104	161	139	300	35	185	40	6	143	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	0%	234	215	41	9	1	1	15	75	2	3	1	194	253	265	519	71	288	32	6	237	47	-15	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	34%	122	112	23	5	1	1	8	39	1	1	0	199	260	279	539	80	290	32	7	246	53	-7	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.5
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	34%	42	39	8	2	0	0	3	13	0	0	0	199	260	279	539	80	290	31	7	246	53	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	42	39	8	2	0	0	3	13	0	0	0	205	262	256	518	51	308	31	7	246	24	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	604	124	31	0	0	46	201	0	0	0	205	262	257	518	51	308	31	7	246	24	-37	+0	+0	-4	+14	-2.7
Career	—	MLE		—	312	289	46	11	1	1	19	110	3	6	2	159	219	215	433	55	251	35	6	203	24	-11	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	602	96	23	2	2	40	229	6	12	4	159	219	214	433	55	252	35	6	203	24	-38	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jhon Lucena (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	192/251/263	71	288	0	1	32%	6%	47	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dennys Riera 2024 · A	19	31	36→40	48→50	42	157/222/222	65	212	4	6	27%	6%	27	-4.0	171/249/237	66	229	3	7	25%	6%	41	-3.0	156/245/214	58	204	3	7	23%	6%	36	-0.9
✕Simon Juan 2024 · A	19	35	37→45	50	38	171/231/239	68	259	4	10	34%	6%	34	-3.5	191/240/292	101	298	10	9	37%	5%	49	-2.4	180/226/285	105	283	12	10	39%	5%	39	-1.5
✕Romer Cuadrado 2017 · A	19	37→36	38→40	45	43	180/251/257	77	267	6	8	33%	8%	46	-2.6	202/259/294	92	320	8	7	37%	6%	57	-1.8	197/253/289	92	311	8	5	37%	6%	51	-1.5
✕Adonis Paula 2013 · A	19	36	36→40	48→40	38	174/232/240	66	253	3	8	31%	5%	34	-3.5	184/249/254	70	260	3	5	28%	6%	44	-2.8	164/227/230	66	246	3	2	33%	6%	29	-1.3
✕Ronny Brito 2018 · A	19	36	38→45	50	39	174/236/254	80	268	5	10	35%	7%	39	-3.1	201/250/308	107	346	11	5	42%	6%	57	-1.8	161/214/283	122	296	17	1	49%	6%	37	-1.2
✕Freili Encarnacion 2024 · A	19	39→33	37→50	52→50	37	185/252/253	68	288	4	11	35%	6%	45	-2.7	195/246/296	101	295	10	11	36%	4%	53	-2.1	184/237/297	113	271	13	10	36%	4%	47	-1.4
✕Leandro Santana 2016 · A	19	40→31	36→45	48→40	43	183/256/255	72	297	1	7	36%	8%	47	-2.6	182/237/266	84	302	8	4	40%	6%	42	-2.9	168/218/250	82	268	10	3	39%	5%	29	-1.9
✕Miguel Alfonzo 2007 · A	19	35	35→40	46→50	44	169/241/227	58	243	3	9	30%	8%	35	-3.4	198/272/274	76	309	6	10	35%	7%	58	-1.7	196/275/270	74	322	7	9	38%	7%	56	-0.8
✕J.V. Martinez 2018 · A	19	41→36	35→45	45→30	38	187/262/252	65	288	2	5	33%	6%	49	-2.4	195/256/294	99	278	9	3	31%	6%	56	-1.9	188/250/297	109	260	10	0	30%	6%	52	-1.3
✕Roni Cabrera 2023 · A	18	38	37→45	51→55	42	182/249/251	69	265	4	10	31%	7%	43	-2.8	183/257/282	99	270	8	12	33%	8%	54	-2.0	154/234/265	111	235	11	17	37%	8%	40	-0.8
✕Franklin Correa 2015 · A	19	37	38→40	48→50	43	179/253/258	79	261	5	10	32%	8%	47	-2.6	184/236/265	81	288	6	7	36%	5%	41	-3.0	155/195/226	71	251	6	4	39%	3%	15	-1.2
✕Cristopher Cespedes 2017 · A	19	33→35	37→45	48→40	37	167/220/236	69	236	5	6	30%	5%	29	-3.8	192/243/284	92	261	6	6	28%	5%	48	-2.5	189/240/297	107	260	8	4	29%	5%	48	-0.7
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	37	37→40	52→55	39	182/236/252	70	264	4	14	31%	6%	38	-3.2	194/241/254	60	283	3	7	31%	5%	40	-3.1	183/218/203	20	254	0	3	27%	4%	17	-1.3
✕Yordyn Calderon 2013 · A	19	33	39→45	46→50	43	168/240/251	83	236	7	10	31%	7%	41	-3.0	191/266/296	105	275	9	11	32%	7%	61	-1.5	185/266/298	114	262	10	13	31%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Omar Meregildo 2018 · A	20	35→31	36→50	47→30	41	172/239/241	69	258	3	6	33%	7%	38	-3.2	197/255/307	110	316	10	3	38%	7%	59	-1.7	174/242/299	125	281	15	1	41%	7%	50	-1.2
✕Bryan Gonzalez 2021 · A	19	37→36	40→45	48→50	41	182/247/274	92	262	8	7	32%	7%	48	-2.5	180/239/271	91	318	9	11	43%	7%	44	-2.8	180/230/300	120	302	15	14	44%	5%	44	-1.5
✕Enger Jimenez 2014 · A	19	33	38→40	47→50	38	166/215/247	82	232	6	9	30%	5%	29	-3.8	187/243/266	79	241	4	10	23%	6%	44	-2.8	184/243/261	77	228	3	12	20%	6%	40	-1.2
✕Yair Lopez 2011 · A	19	38	39→45	48→55	38	185/248/264	79	288	6	11	36%	6%	46	-2.6	182/222/269	87	292	7	10	38%	4%	36	-3.3	154/183/241	87	243	7	12	39%	3%	12	-1.3
✕Nerio Rodriguez 2019 · A	19	34	37→40	48→40	39	162/230/231	69	276	4	4	40%	8%	32	-3.7	191/261/276	85	309	6	4	37%	8%	54	-2.0	191/269/294	102	288	11	1	35%	9%	59	-0.6
✕Yimmelvyn Alonzo 2016 · A	19	37	36→40	50→45	39	176/244/244	69	266	3	6	33%	6%	40	-3.1	171/265/254	83	263	4	8	33%	10%	51	-2.2	132/253/223	90	201	5	10	32%	13%	39	-1.0