Cristopher Cespedes
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROKAZL Indians B… | 207 | .326/.392/.543 | 6 | 4 | 62 | — | .204/.255/.335 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+/A2 orgs | 413 | .241/.307/.432 | 15 | 5 | 51 | — | .190/.239/.327 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA/A2 orgs | 113 | .223/.354/.330 | 2 | 0 | 58 | — | .182/.283/.242 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | DSL Indians | — | 241 | 210 | 44 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 210 | 303 | 348 | 650 | 138 | 278 | 27 | 9 | 293 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | DSL Indians | — | 134 | 127 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 220 | 261 | 307 | 568 | 87 | 274 | 22 | 2 | 258 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | DSL Indians | — | 195 | 172 | 54 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 314 | 385 | 523 | 909 | 209 | 345 | 14 | 8 | 393 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | — | 145 | 130 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 223 | 294 | 323 | 617 | 100 | 289 | 23 | 8 | 278 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Indians Blue | — | 207 | 184 | 60 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 326 | 392 | 543 | 936 | 217 | 425 | 26 | 9 | 404 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 126 | 114 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 323 | 439 | 761 | 175 | 360 | 30 | 6 | 332 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 287 | 259 | 60 | 15 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 73 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 232 | 301 | 429 | 729 | 197 | 274 | 25 | 8 | 322 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 91 | 76 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 330 | 329 | 659 | 132 | 245 | 23 | 15 | 307 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 22 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 333 | 455 | 333 | 788 | 545 | 32 | 18 | 374 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 241 | 216 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 78 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 134 | 214 | 213 | 427 | 79 | 182 | 32 | 6 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 134 | 128 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 148 | 187 | 203 | 390 | 55 | 191 | 28 | 1 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 195 | 177 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 203 | 266 | 316 | 582 | 113 | 226 | 17 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians 1 | — | 145 | 134 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 164 | 217 | 239 | 456 | 75 | 232 | 34 | 5 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians Blue | — | 207 | 191 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 78 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 204 | 255 | 335 | 590 | 131 | 307 | 38 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 126 | 116 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 250 | 328 | 578 | 129 | 307 | 40 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 287 | 269 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 97 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 186 | 234 | 327 | 561 | 141 | 249 | 34 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 91 | 80 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 264 | 237 | 501 | 75 | 230 | 29 | 11 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 22 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 263 | 364 | 263 | 627 | 515 | 41 | 14 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 241 | 216 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 78 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 134 | 214 | 213 | 427 | 79 | 196 | 32 | 6 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Indians | — | 241 | 210 | 44 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 210 | 303 | 348 | 650 | 138 | 278 | 27 | 9 | 293 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 134 | 128 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 148 | 187 | 203 | 390 | 55 | 200 | 28 | 1 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Indians | — | 134 | 127 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 220 | 261 | 307 | 568 | 87 | 274 | 22 | 2 | 258 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 195 | 177 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 203 | 266 | 316 | 582 | 113 | 236 | 17 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Indians | — | 195 | 172 | 54 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 314 | 385 | 523 | 909 | 209 | 345 | 14 | 8 | 393 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians 1 | — | 145 | 134 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 164 | 217 | 239 | 456 | 75 | 244 | 34 | 5 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians 1 | — | 145 | 130 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 223 | 294 | 323 | 617 | 100 | 289 | 23 | 8 | 278 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians Blue | — | 207 | 191 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 78 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 204 | 255 | 335 | 590 | 131 | 312 | 38 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians Blue | — | 207 | 184 | 60 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 326 | 392 | 543 | 936 | 217 | 425 | 26 | 9 | 404 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 385 | 73 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 148 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 190 | 239 | 327 | 566 | 138 | 271 | 36 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 413 | 373 | 90 | 24 | 1 | 15 | 32 | 111 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 241 | 307 | 432 | 739 | 190 | 300 | 27 | 8 | 325 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 113 | 99 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 182 | 283 | 242 | 526 | 61 | 270 | 31 | 12 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 113 | 94 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 223 | 354 | 330 | 684 | 106 | 297 | 25 | 16 | 320 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 241 | 217 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 78 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 134 | 214 | 212 | 426 | 78 | 182 | 32 | 6 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 134 | 127 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 150 | 187 | 205 | 391 | 55 | 191 | 28 | 1 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians | — | 195 | 178 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 202 | 266 | 315 | 580 | 112 | 226 | 17 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians 1 | — | 145 | 135 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 163 | 217 | 237 | 454 | 74 | 232 | 34 | 5 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians Blue | — | 207 | 192 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 78 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 203 | 255 | 333 | 588 | 130 | 307 | 38 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 385 | 73 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 148 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 190 | 239 | 327 | 566 | 138 | 267 | 36 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 113 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 184 | 283 | 245 | 528 | 61 | 285 | 31 | 12 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1448 | 1330 | 236 | 54 | 9 | 22 | 80 | 458 | 24 | 19 | 15 | 177 | 237 | 281 | 518 | 104 | 248 | 32 | 6 | 226 | 39 | -105 | -2 | +0 | -16 | +31 | -9.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 106 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 206 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 178 | 238 | 281 | 519 | 104 | 249 | 32 | 6 | 226 | 39 | -47 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -4.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AABowie Baysox · 91 PAwOBA .300 → .243 (−57)K% 23.1% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 10.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.36% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 16.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.055 | ×0.860 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 6.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.170 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.45% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .300 → .243; ISO .132 → .096; BABIP .245 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 22 PAwOBA .365 → .298 (−67)K% 31.8% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.82% | ÷1.061 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.979 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 12.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 54.55% | ÷0.955 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 51.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.128 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 91, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 112, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .365 → .298; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .545 → .515. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 287 PAwOBA .313 → .243 (−70)K% 25.4% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.44% | ÷1.027 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.01% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 5.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.74% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×0.990 | 17.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷1.055 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×0.990 | 6.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.910 | ×1.036 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.035 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 4.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 107, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .313 → .243; ISO .197 → .143; BABIP .274 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 126 PAwOBA .328 → .245 (−83)K% 30.2% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.16% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 40.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.35% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.37% | ÷1.026 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 19.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.84% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 9.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.95% | ÷1.041 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 3.14% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .328 → .245; ISO .175 → .125; BABIP .360 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Indians Blue · 207 PAwOBA .399 → .260 (−139)K% 26.1% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 20.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 9.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 3.55% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .399 → .260; ISO .217 → .140; BABIP .425 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKAZL Indians 1 · 145 PAwOBA .275 → .194 (−80)K% 23.4% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 4.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.032 | ×0.995 | 16.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.032 | ×0.995 | 6.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.032 | ×0.995 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.81% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .275 → .194; ISO .100 → .068; BABIP .289 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 DSLDSL Indians · 195 PAwOBA .386 → .252 (−135)K% 13.8% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.85% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 5.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.028 | ×0.995 | 15.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.028 | ×0.995 | 5.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.028 | ×0.995 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 1.61% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .386 → .252; ISO .209 → .118; BABIP .345 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 DSLDSL Indians · 134 PAwOBA .251 → .163 (−88)K% 22.4% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.39% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.99% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 16.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.98% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .251 → .163; ISO .087 → .045; BABIP .274 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).