Israel Alvarez — OGILVIE

Israel AlvarezSS DSL CLE Goryl

Age 18 S/R 5'9" / 136 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION140 act + 93 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .257 / .275

PA93

HR0

K%20

BB%5

BABIP263

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$4M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.5M
2037	Arb-3	$4M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$12M		$19M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL CLE Goryl	—	184	161	26	4	1	0	13	40	8	2	0	161	258	199	457	37	211	22	7	203	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL CLE Goryl	—	184	154	34	5	1	0	20	29	8	2	0	221	341	266	607	45	268	16	11	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	PIT	—	140	130	26	9	1	0	6	20	0	4	4	200	235	285	520	85	232	14	4	228	32	-11	-1	+0	+2	+4	-0.6
YTD	18	ROK	PIT	—	140	126	34	12	2	0	10	14	0	4	4	270	324	397	720	127	298	10	7	312	97	-0	-1	+0	+2	+4	0.4
ROS	18	ROK	PIT	0%	93	87	18	4	1	0	5	19	1	2	1	206	257	275	532	69	259	20	5	246	47	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
ROS	18	MLB	PIT	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		257	—	—	239	41	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	PIT	—	140	131	26	9	1	0	6	20	0	4	4	198	235	282	518	84	230	14	4	228	32	-11	-1	+0	+2	+4	-0.6
TOT	18	ROK	PIT	—	233	217	44	13	2	0	11	39	1	6	5	202	244	281	525	78	244	17	5	235	38	-16	-1	+0	+3	+7	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	PIT	34%	270	248	53	12	2	2	17	56	3	4	2	214	272	302	575	89	263	21	6	261	58	-13	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.2
2028	20	MLB	PIT	48%	391	358	79	17	3	5	25	81	5	5	2	221	281	327	608	106	267	21	6	272	66	-15	+0	+0	+4	+11	0.0
2029	21	MLB	PIT	54%	481	440	98	21	4	7	32	99	6	6	3	223	285	336	621	114	269	21	7	279	71	-16	+0	+0	+5	+14	0.3
2030	22	MLB	PIT	57%	544	495	111	23	4	9	37	111	7	7	3	224	288	341	629	117	271	20	7	283	75	-15	+0	+0	+6	+15	0.6
2031	23	MLB	PIT	58%	587	534	121	25	4	10	40	119	8	8	4	227	290	345	635	118	271	20	7	286	77	-15	+0	+0	+6	+17	0.8
2032	24	MLB	PIT	57%	614	559	129	27	5	11	42	124	8	8	4	231	294	356	650	125	272	20	7	288	79	-15	+0	+0	+7	+17	0.9
2033	25	MLB	PIT	57%	628	572	131	27	5	11	43	127	8	8	4	229	292	351	644	122	272	20	7	289	79	-15	+0	+0	+7	+18	1.0
2034	26	MLB	PIT	57%	635	579	132	27	5	12	43	128	8	8	4	228	290	354	645	126	272	20	7	290	80	-14	+0	+0	+7	+18	1.1
2035	27	MLB	PIT	55%	635	578	132	27	5	12	44	128	8	8	4	228	292	355	647	126	272	20	7	290	80	-14	+0	+0	+7	+18	1.1
2036	28	MLB	PIT	55%	630	573	130	27	5	11	44	128	8	8	4	227	291	349	640	122	272	20	7	289	79	-15	+0	-1	+7	+18	0.9
2037	29	MLB	PIT	53%	620	563	127	26	4	11	44	127	8	8	4	226	291	345	636	119	271	20	7	287	78	-15	+0	-1	+7	+18	0.8
2038	30	MLB	PIT	57%	609	553	124	26	4	10	43	127	8	7	4	224	290	340	630	116	270	21	7	285	76	-16	-0	-2	+7	+17	0.5
2039	31	MLB	PIT	60%	595	540	120	25	4	10	42	126	8	7	3	222	288	339	627	117	268	21	7	281	73	-18	+0	-3	+6	+17	0.3
2040	32	MLB	PIT	61%	576	523	114	23	4	9	41	124	7	6	3	218	284	329	613	111	265	22	7	275	69	-20	+0	-4	+6	+16	-0.1
2027	19	MLB	PIT	34%	93	86	19	4	1	1	6	19	1	1	1	221	280	326	605	105	262	20	6	252	51	-5	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
2028	20	MLB	PIT	48%	189	173	37	8	1	2	12	39	2	2	1	214	273	306	579	92	266	21	6	261	58	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
2029	21	MLB	PIT	54%	261	239	53	11	2	4	17	54	3	3	2	222	282	335	617	113	268	21	7	268	63	-11	-0	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
2030	22	MLB	PIT	57%	308	280	62	13	2	5	21	63	4	4	2	221	285	336	621	114	269	20	7	272	67	-12	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.0
2031	23	MLB	PIT	58%	338	308	71	15	3	6	23	69	4	4	2	231	293	357	650	127	270	20	7	275	69	-12	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.1
2032	24	MLB	PIT	57%	350	318	73	15	3	6	24	71	5	5	2	230	294	352	646	123	271	20	7	277	70	-12	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.2
2033	25	MLB	PIT	57%	356	324	73	15	3	6	24	72	5	5	2	225	289	346	635	120	271	20	7	278	71	-12	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2034	26	MLB	PIT	57%	359	326	75	15	3	7	25	72	5	5	2	230	295	359	654	129	271	20	7	279	72	-12	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2035	27	MLB	PIT	55%	352	319	73	15	3	6	25	71	5	5	2	229	295	351	646	122	271	20	7	279	72	-11	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2036	28	MLB	PIT	55%	346	314	72	15	3	6	24	70	5	4	2	229	294	354	648	124	270	20	7	278	71	-11	+0	-0	+4	+10	0.2
2037	29	MLB	PIT	53%	332	301	68	14	2	6	24	68	4	4	2	226	292	346	637	120	270	20	7	276	70	-11	+0	-1	+4	+9	0.1
2038	30	MLB	PIT	57%	348	315	71	15	2	6	25	72	5	4	2	225	293	343	636	117	269	21	7	274	68	-13	+0	-1	+4	+10	-0.0
2039	31	MLB	PIT	60%	355	322	71	15	2	6	25	75	5	4	2	220	287	335	622	115	267	21	7	270	65	-14	+0	-2	+4	+10	-0.2
2040	32	MLB	PIT	61%	353	321	68	14	2	5	25	76	4	4	2	212	277	315	592	103	264	22	7	265	61	-16	+0	-2	+4	+10	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4340	3947	886	184	32	72	300	891	57	54	26	224	289	342	631	118	271	21	7	273	67	-160	+0	-6	+46	+123	0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	134	28	5	11	45	133	9	8	4	227	292	347	639	120	273	20	7	273	67	-24	+0	-1	+7	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	8092	7363	1645	341	60	130	555	1664	109	102	49	223	288	339	627	116	270	21	7	282	74	-241	+1	-10	+87	+229	6.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	131	27	5	10	45	134	9	8	4	222	287	335	622	113	269	21	7	282	74	-19	+0	-1	+7	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL CLE Goryl	—	184	154	34	5	1	0	20	29	8	2	0	221	341	266	607	45	268	16	11	289	79	-4	+0	—	—	+5	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,514	74	58	225	286	343	+48	+27	4.3	4.0
	/162	664	11	8	225	286	343	+7.1	+4.0	0.6	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Israel Alvarez (OGILVIE)	18	35	20	40	40	202/244/281	78	244	0	6	17%	5%	38	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Deivi Estrada 2019 · A	18	40	36→30	45→50	43	190/259/260	71	280	2	10	31%	7%	43	-2.2	210/287/274	64	290	3	9	26%	9%	58	-1.2	195/270/241	46	289	2	8	30%	8%	41	-0.7
✕Jose Perez 2022 · A	18	41	39→40	42→45	45	194/268/281	86	278	5	6	30%	8%	52	-1.6	200/299/287	87	269	5	7	25%	11%	68	-0.5	190/311/283	93	253	5	7	24%	13%	71	-0.1
✕Francisco Aponte 2009 · A	18	43	36→30	49→60	46	205/268/268	64	265	4	9	23%	7%	48	-1.9	230/305/289	59	291	2	17	20%	8%	69	-0.4	221/287/267	45	270	0	22	16%	8%	54	-0.5
●Luis Lara 2023 · A	18	42→48	38→40	45→60	45	200/259/284	84	248	4	8	21%	6%	48	-1.9	212/278/277	65	276	3	25	23%	7%	54	-1.4	229/308/305	76	292	5	34	21%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Yonny Hernández 2016 · A	18	43→53	34→30	40→60	48	201/280/255	55	270	2	8	24%	8%	50	-1.7	219/296/276	57	268	1	22	17%	9%	62	-0.9	268/330/326	58	319	3	17	16%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Kleiber Rodriguez 2018 · A	19	37	35→30	46→40	46	175/250/234	59	244	2	5	27%	8%	33	-2.9	219/280/288	69	282	3	5	21%	7%	58	-1.2	240/298/301	61	284	2	4	15%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Eduardo Guerrero 2023 · A	18	48→38	35→30	45→50	44	226/282/281	55	302	3	8	25%	6%	57	-1.2	198/271/258	60	267	2	8	24%	8%	47	-1.9	196/291/251	55	273	4	10	26%	11%	53	-0.8
✕Enderson Delgado 2023 · A	18	42	35→45	45→30	41	196/262/252	56	273	2	6	28%	6%	42	-2.3	176/258/267	91	261	8	4	34%	7%	46	-2.0	172/264/273	101	236	12	1	30%	7%	48	-0.5
✕Diego Velasquez 2022 · A	18	40→50	34→40	46→55	43	189/242/236	46	248	2	5	24%	6%	28	-3.2	218/279/297	79	287	5	11	24%	7%	60	-1.0	239/309/308	69	304	4	19	21%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Carlos Ramirez 2007 · A	18	39	36→40	44→45	46	187/255/250	63	262	3	6	28%	8%	38	-2.6	221/282/291	70	277	2	5	20%	6%	59	-1.1	241/302/311	71	291	2	4	17%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Luis Joseph 2015 · A	18	40	35→30	36→50	39	191/231/252	62	259	2	6	26%	5%	27	-3.3	216/248/272	56	269	2	9	20%	4%	38	-2.6	223/244/272	49	266	2	11	16%	2%	33	-1.0
✕Ruben Santana 2017 · A	19	43	35→45	43→55	41	204/248/262	57	271	2	8	25%	5%	37	-2.7	233/288/312	79	284	1	11	17%	6%	67	-0.5	226/288/307	80	282	1	14	19%	7%	64	-0.2
✕Kelvin Fajardo 2014 · A	18	44	35→30	46→50	48	204/261/260	56	246	3	6	18%	7%	43	-2.2	222/278/270	48	270	1	6	17%	6%	52	-1.6	224/280/257	33	266	0	6	15%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Francis Grullon 2019 · A	18	39	35→45	47→55	45	184/247/246	62	246	2	9	25%	7%	33	-2.9	202/273/292	90	249	7	13	20%	8%	57	-1.2	192/274/289	97	228	9	18	19%	9%	56	-0.4
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2011 · A	18	43	35→40	47→65	48	203/275/262	59	265	2	16	23%	8%	50	-1.8	204/271/273	69	256	3	20	20%	7%	50	-1.7	210/296/279	69	262	2	36	19%	9%	60	-0.4
✕Juan Alonso 2022 · A	18	42→32	37→40	43→50	40	199/260/273	73	295	4	10	32%	6%	46	-2.0	184/285/263	79	357	5	9	44%	10%	56	-1.3	152/269/228	75	334	5	7	49%	11%	40	-1.1
✕Felipe Burin 2010 · A	18	42	36→40	42→45	46	198/250/263	64	243	3	5	19%	6%	38	-2.6	232/298/304	72	286	3	5	18%	8%	69	-0.4	236/304/302	66	296	2	3	19%	8%	71	-0.1
✕Emmanuel Morel 2015 · A	18	42	36→30	51→55	41	199/261/262	63	278	3	9	28%	6%	43	-2.2	192/267/250	58	298	2	16	33%	9%	43	-2.2	173/256/219	46	280	0	22	34%	9%	29	-0.9
✕Jandel Paulino 2019 · A	18	39	35→40	41→45	40	185/261/243	58	280	3	8	33%	7%	40	-2.4	212/286/295	83	307	6	6	31%	7%	63	-0.8	215/300/291	76	303	6	4	28%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Ramon Coronel 2010 · A	18	45	36→30	45	43	211/260/278	68	255	3	5	18%	4%	46	-2.0	227/269/285	58	279	2	8	18%	5%	51	-1.7	242/277/290	49	293	1	9	17%	4%	53	-0.4