Victor Saez — OGILVIE

Victor SaezC DSL Orioles Black

Age 18 R/R 5'9" / 162 lbs ROK HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION102 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP288

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	76	16	1	0	1	14	22	1	2	0	211	341	263	604	53	283	24	15	288	81	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	81	13	1	0	1	9	31	1	2	0	160	253	210	463	49	236	34	10	205	25	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	81	13	1	0	1	9	31	1	2	0	160	253	210	463	49	245	34	10	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	76	16	1	0	1	14	22	1	2	0	211	341	263	604	53	283	24	15	288	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	82	13	1	0	1	9	31	1	2	0	159	253	207	460	49	236	34	10	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	82	13	1	0	1	9	31	1	2	0	159	253	207	460	49	236	34	10	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	BAL	—	102	92	15	3	1	0	9	36	1	6	4	163	245	217	462	54	268	35	9	207	26	-9	-0	+0	+2	+2	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	BAL	—	102	86	21	4	1	0	15	25	1	6	4	244	363	314	677	70	344	25	15	318	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	ROK MLE	BAL	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		285	33	11	250	55	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	18	ROK MLE	BAL	—	111	100	16	3	1	0	10	39	1	6	4	160	243	210	453	50	262	35	9	210	29	-9	-0	+0	+2	+2	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BAL	34%	185	166	34	6	1	2	15	54	2	5	2	205	279	289	568	84	287	29	8	262	64	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
2028	20	MLB MLE	BAL	48%	325	291	62	10	2	5	27	92	4	9	3	213	289	313	602	100	289	28	8	272	70	-11	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	432	388	84	14	3	7	36	120	5	12	4	216	291	322	614	106	290	28	8	279	75	-13	+1	+0	+8	+9	0.5
2030	22	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	508	454	99	16	3	9	43	140	6	14	5	218	294	326	620	108	291	28	8	284	78	-13	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.8
2031	23	MLB MLE	BAL	58%	520	465	103	17	3	10	44	142	6	14	5	222	297	335	633	114	292	27	8	287	80	-12	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.9
2032	24	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	520	465	104	17	3	11	44	142	6	14	5	224	299	344	643	120	293	27	8	289	82	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.0
2033	25	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	520	464	104	17	3	11	44	142	7	14	5	224	301	345	646	121	293	27	8	291	83	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2034	26	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	520	464	104	17	3	11	44	142	7	14	5	224	301	345	646	121	293	27	8	292	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2035	27	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	520	463	103	17	3	11	45	142	7	14	5	222	301	343	644	121	293	27	9	292	84	-10	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	520	463	103	17	3	11	45	143	7	14	5	222	301	343	644	121	292	28	9	291	83	-11	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.0
2037	29	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	520	464	102	16	3	11	45	144	6	14	5	220	297	338	635	119	291	28	9	289	82	-11	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.9
2038	30	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	520	463	102	16	3	11	46	145	6	14	5	220	299	339	638	119	290	28	9	286	80	-13	+1	-2	+9	+11	0.7
2039	31	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	504	449	97	15	3	10	44	142	6	13	4	216	295	330	624	114	288	28	9	282	77	-14	+1	-3	+9	+11	0.4
2040	32	MLB MLE	BAL	59%	489	437	92	14	3	9	43	140	6	12	4	211	290	318	608	108	284	29	9	276	73	-16	+1	-4	+9	+11	0.1
2041	33	MLB MLE	BAL	61%	473	423	86	13	2	8	41	138	6	12	4	203	283	300	583	97	280	29	9	270	69	-18	+1	-4	+8	+10	-0.2
2027	19	MLB CTX	BAL	34%	64	58	12	2	0	1	5	19	1	2	1	207	281	293	574	86	291	30	8	258	64	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	BAL	48%	157	141	30	5	1	2	13	44	2	4	1	213	288	305	593	92	293	28	8	267	70	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	234	209	46	8	1	4	20	65	3	6	2	220	297	325	623	105	294	28	9	274	75	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2030	22	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	288	258	59	10	2	6	24	79	4	8	3	229	304	353	657	124	295	27	8	279	78	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	BAL	58%	299	268	60	10	2	6	25	82	4	8	3	224	300	343	643	119	296	27	8	282	80	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2032	24	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	296	265	60	10	2	6	25	81	4	8	3	226	303	347	650	121	297	27	8	284	82	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	295	264	60	10	2	6	25	80	4	8	3	227	304	348	652	121	297	27	8	286	83	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	294	263	60	10	2	7	25	80	4	8	3	228	305	361	666	133	297	27	9	287	83	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	289	258	60	10	2	7	25	79	4	8	3	233	310	368	678	136	297	27	9	287	84	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	286	255	57	9	2	6	25	79	4	8	3	224	303	345	648	122	297	28	9	286	83	-6	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.6
2037	29	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	278	249	56	9	2	6	24	77	3	7	2	225	301	349	650	124	296	28	9	284	82	-6	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2038	30	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	274	245	55	9	2	6	24	77	3	7	2	224	301	351	652	127	294	28	9	281	80	-7	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2039	31	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	285	255	56	9	2	6	25	80	3	7	2	220	297	341	638	122	292	28	9	277	77	-8	+1	-2	+5	+6	0.2
2040	32	MLB CTX	BAL	59%	289	259	55	9	1	6	25	83	3	7	2	212	289	324	614	112	288	29	9	271	73	-9	+1	-2	+5	+6	0.1
2041	33	MLB CTX	BAL	61%	289	259	53	8	1	5	25	84	3	7	2	205	282	301	583	97	284	29	9	265	69	-11	+1	-3	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3917	3506	779	128	24	80	335	1089	49	103	35	222	299	341	640	119	297	28	9	279	78	-100	+7	-8	+70	+85	5.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	129	21	4	13	56	181	8	17	6	222	299	338	637	117	297	28	9	279	78	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	7177	6408	1393	223	41	138	616	2002	88	191	66	217	295	330	624	112	291	28	9	283	78	-183	+11	-15	+127	+154	9.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	126	20	4	12	56	181	8	17	6	217	295	328	623	110	292	28	9	283	78	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#6Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.0	4,003	77	107	219	292	332	+71	+36	8.3	6.9
/162	664	13	18	+11.9	+6.0	1.4	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Saez (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	197/268/270	73	285	1	3	30%	8%	55	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Lopez 2016 · A	18	41	36→50	49→45	47	196/260/260	65	259	4	13	25%	8%	49	-2.4	201/257/293	92	274	8	9	28%	6%	56	-1.9	161/223/251	90	239	8	7	35%	7%	32	-1.1
✕Jose Paez 2012 · A	18	36	36→45	51→50	41	173/241/239	66	265	4	16	34%	7%	38	-3.2	220/268/311	91	310	5	12	29%	5%	63	-1.4	226/270/319	93	319	4	12	29%	5%	61	-0.5
✕Daniel Santos 2017 · A	18	40	35→45	51→40	43	188/256/247	59	280	3	8	32%	8%	45	-2.7	189/258/268	79	267	5	6	29%	6%	51	-2.3	173/243/251	78	245	5	4	30%	6%	41	-0.8
✕Alejandro Selen 2007 · A	18	39	35→50	51→30	41	183/255/247	64	290	2	11	35%	8%	45	-2.7	203/258/279	76	265	4	7	24%	5%	53	-2.1	221/258/362	141	318	15	1	34%	3%	69	-0.4
✕Jorge Alcantara 2010 · A	18	44	38→45	51→50	41	207/269/289	82	311	6	11	33%	7%	59	-1.7	209/275/309	100	307	7	11	32%	7%	66	-1.1	189/260/299	110	270	7	17	30%	8%	58	-0.6
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2017 · A	18	37	35→40	51→60	40	176/238/231	55	271	2	17	34%	7%	34	-3.5	204/268/282	78	293	5	21	30%	8%	57	-1.8	193/264/273	80	285	7	32	32%	8%	52	-0.7
✕Yeremy Cabrera 2023 · A	18	37→42	38→45	53→60	48	181/263/263	82	240	5	13	26%	8%	52	-2.2	207/289/321	114	272	11	17	26%	9%	75	-0.5	202/287/312	110	269	12	24	27%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	52	-2.2	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	68	-1.0	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	72	-0.3
✕René Pinto 2015 · A	18	43	37→55	51→40	41	204/249/275	71	265	4	7	24%	5%	47	-2.5	217/260/333	116	271	10	5	23%	5%	65	-1.2	232/273/330	99	296	7	1	23%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Rafael Herrera 2019 · A	18	43	35→40	52→50	45	200/267/266	67	269	2	12	25%	7%	53	-2.1	218/286/298	80	291	4	12	24%	8%	68	-1.0	229/304/310	81	297	4	17	22%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Delino DeShields 2012 · A	19	40→50	40→45	50→65	41	195/252/281	86	270	8	16	30%	6%	51	-2.2	228/294/330	102	309	8	38	27%	7%	78	-0.3	236/312/340	103	313	6	38	24%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	45	-2.7	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	55	-2.0	224/262/324	100	290	5	8	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	37→47	43→50	52→30	40	187/247/297	110	260	10	10	31%	6%	53	-2.1	196/245/302	106	303	10	7	37%	5%	53	-2.1	225/276/346	121	319	13	2	32%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	43	-2.8	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	58	-1.7	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	50	-0.6
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2010 · A	19	38	38→45	51→50	38	189/234/265	77	255	6	13	28%	4%	40	-3.0	216/275/340	124	268	12	12	23%	6%	74	-0.6	220/275/339	119	277	13	9	24%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Riley Unroe 2014 · A	18	42→48	37→45	51→55	47	196/275/269	72	289	3	9	31%	9%	57	-1.8	195/258/260	65	272	4	9	28%	7%	48	-2.5	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Manuel Pena 2022 · A	18	41→47	40→45	50	42	201/257/287	86	280	8	15	30%	7%	54	-2.0	198/247/280	82	297	6	9	33%	6%	48	-2.5	225/259/347	121	301	14	5	30%	4%	66	-0.9
✕Mariel Bautista 2016 · A	18	41→36	38→45	50	40	197/258/282	85	286	5	8	31%	6%	54	-2.0	226/275/318	92	287	6	14	22%	5%	68	-1.0	239/283/340	101	289	8	18	19%	4%	74	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps