Victor Saez — OGILVIE

Victor SaezC DSL Orioles Black

Age 18 R/R 5'9" / 162 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 34 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .260 / .221

PA34

HR0

K%32

BB%9

BABIP290

ISO32

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$4M	+1.0	$3M	+$2M
Totals		$13M		$29M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	81	13	1	0	1	9	31	1	2	0	160	253	210	463	49	245	34	10	209	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	76	16	1	0	1	14	22	1	2	0	211	341	263	604	53	283	24	15	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	BAL	—	52	47	7	2	1	0	4	20	1	2	2	149	231	234	465	85	259	38	8	195	7	-5	-0	+0	+1	+1	-0.4
YTD	18	ROK	BAL	—	52	44	9	3	1	0	7	14	1	2	2	205	327	318	645	114	300	27	13	300	88	-1	-0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
ROS	18	ROK	BAL	0%	34	31	6	1	0	0	3	11	0	1	0	189	260	221	481	32	286	32	9	252	51	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
ROS	18	MLB	BAL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		290	—	—	247	47	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	BAL	—	52	48	7	2	1	0	4	20	1	2	2	146	231	229	460	83	250	38	8	195	7	-5	-0	+0	+1	+1	-0.4
TOT	18	ROK	BAL	—	86	78	13	3	1	0	7	31	1	3	2	165	242	229	471	64	273	36	8	218	25	-7	-0	+0	+2	+2	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	BAL	34%	174	156	32	6	1	2	14	51	2	2	1	205	279	295	574	90	286	29	8	262	59	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
2028	20	MLB	BAL	48%	317	285	60	10	2	5	25	91	4	4	2	211	283	312	596	102	288	29	8	271	66	-12	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.2
2029	21	MLB	BAL	54%	426	382	81	14	3	7	35	121	6	6	2	212	288	319	608	107	290	28	8	278	71	-14	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.6
2030	22	MLB	BAL	57%	504	451	98	17	4	9	41	141	7	7	3	217	293	333	625	115	291	28	8	282	74	-15	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.9
2031	23	MLB	BAL	58%	520	465	103	18	4	10	43	145	7	7	3	222	297	342	639	120	292	28	8	284	76	-14	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.0
2032	24	MLB	BAL	57%	520	465	103	18	4	10	43	145	7	7	3	222	297	342	639	120	292	28	8	286	77	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2033	25	MLB	BAL	57%	520	465	103	18	4	10	43	145	7	7	3	222	297	342	639	120	293	28	8	288	78	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2034	26	MLB	BAL	57%	520	465	104	18	4	11	43	145	7	7	3	224	299	351	650	127	292	28	8	288	79	-12	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2035	27	MLB	BAL	55%	520	465	102	17	4	11	43	145	7	7	3	219	295	344	639	125	292	28	8	289	79	-12	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2036	28	MLB	BAL	55%	520	464	102	17	4	11	44	146	7	7	2	220	297	345	642	125	292	28	8	287	78	-13	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.1
2037	29	MLB	BAL	53%	520	464	101	17	4	10	44	147	7	6	2	218	295	336	631	119	291	28	8	286	77	-14	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.0
2027	19	MLB	BAL	34%	60	54	11	2	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	204	283	296	580	93	290	30	8	257	55	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	20	MLB	BAL	48%	154	139	29	5	1	2	12	44	2	2	1	209	281	302	583	94	292	29	8	265	61	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2029	21	MLB	BAL	54%	231	207	45	8	2	4	19	65	3	3	1	217	293	333	626	116	294	28	8	271	66	-9	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2030	22	MLB	BAL	57%	285	256	56	10	2	5	23	80	4	4	1	219	293	332	625	113	295	28	8	275	69	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2031	23	MLB	BAL	58%	299	269	59	10	2	6	24	84	4	4	1	219	293	338	631	119	296	28	8	278	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2032	24	MLB	BAL	57%	296	266	59	10	2	6	24	83	4	4	1	222	296	342	638	120	297	28	8	280	72	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2033	25	MLB	BAL	57%	295	265	59	10	2	6	24	82	4	4	1	223	297	343	640	121	297	28	8	281	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2034	26	MLB	BAL	57%	294	264	58	10	2	6	24	82	4	4	1	220	295	341	635	121	297	28	8	282	74	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2035	27	MLB	BAL	55%	289	259	58	10	2	6	24	81	4	4	1	224	300	347	647	124	296	28	8	282	74	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2036	28	MLB	BAL	55%	286	256	57	10	2	6	24	80	4	4	1	223	299	348	647	125	296	28	8	281	73	-9	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.5
2037	29	MLB	BAL	53%	278	248	55	9	2	6	24	79	4	3	1	222	301	347	647	125	295	28	9	279	72	-9	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2767	2484	546	94	19	54	227	778	38	37	10	220	295	338	633	118	296	28	8	278	71	-91	+3	-1	+49	+78	4.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	128	22	4	13	53	183	9	9	2	219	294	337	631	118	295	28	8	278	71	-21	+1	-0	+12	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	5187	4639	1008	172	38	97	430	1464	69	70	27	217	293	333	627	116	293	28	8	282	74	-151	+3	-2	+93	+147	9.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	127	22	5	12	54	183	9	9	3	219	295	336	631	117	295	28	8	282	74	-19	+1	-0	+12	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	76	16	1	0	1	14	22	1	2	0	211	341	263	604	53	283	24	15	288	79	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,848	53	38	218	291	335	+51	+28	5.3	4.9
	/162	664	12	9	218	291	335	+11.9	+6.5	1.2	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Saez (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	165/242/229	64	273	0	3	36%	8%	25	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	43→40	38→55	48→50	43	202/265/291	89	290	5	5	30%	7%	53	-1.5	195/240/313	118	278	11	5	32%	5%	47	-1.9	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	40→45	49→30	44	198/265/288	89	272	7	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	202/288/300	98	309	8	4	34%	10%	66	-0.6	205/306/334	128	325	13	2	37%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	40	38→55	49→45	43	195/258/270	75	266	5	11	28%	7%	44	-2.1	205/253/318	113	280	11	7	30%	5%	55	-1.4	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→55	45→40	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	29	-3.2	211/250/329	118	282	13	5	29%	5%	56	-1.3	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Daniel Santos 2017 · A	18	40	35→45	51→40	43	188/256/247	59	280	3	8	32%	8%	37	-2.6	189/258/268	79	267	5	6	29%	6%	44	-2.1	173/243/251	78	245	5	4	30%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	36	-2.7	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	53	-1.5	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	44	-0.5
✕Richard Ramirez 2023 · A	18	37	37→55	47→40	38	176/239/249	73	297	5	6	40%	8%	30	-3.1	195/259/306	111	313	11	5	38%	8%	55	-1.4	199/259/329	129	331	13	2	41%	6%	57	-0.5
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2018 · A	18	45	37→55	51→40	37	209/263/281	71	306	3	8	31%	5%	49	-1.8	197/253/262	65	271	2	5	27%	5%	40	-2.4	183/253/290	107	242	12	2	29%	6%	49	-0.6
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	47→45	37	205/260/286	81	312	4	7	34%	5%	49	-1.8	227/275/314	87	287	6	8	22%	5%	63	-0.9	241/291/328	87	291	6	8	19%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→47	36→55	49→30	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	43	-2.2	204/277/283	79	275	6	5	26%	8%	56	-1.3	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Rey Duran 2008 · A	19	41	39→50	49→40	44	194/268/278	84	288	7	6	33%	8%	51	-1.7	201/256/316	115	261	13	5	27%	6%	56	-1.3	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	38	-2.6	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	49	-1.8	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Hector Garcia 2008 · A	18	38	40→45	49→40	41	188/237/274	86	249	7	6	27%	6%	36	-2.7	212/263/289	77	269	6	4	22%	6%	51	-1.7	222/269/309	87	270	7	1	20%	5%	56	-0.4
✕Alejandro Flores 2014 · A	18	41	37→50	48→40	43	196/253/264	68	270	4	7	28%	7%	40	-2.4	190/255/273	83	275	7	6	31%	7%	44	-2.1	199/256/338	139	264	14	3	29%	6%	57	-0.5