Victor Saez

C DSL Orioles Black

Age 19 R/R 5'9" / 162 lbs ROK HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1382ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Orioles O…	92	.211/.341/.263	1	2	20	—	.150/.253/.200
2026	18	ROKDSL Orioles B…	102	.244/.363/.314	0	6	23	—	.144/.245/.189
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBBAL	212	.206/.278/.276	1	5	59	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBBAL	38	.214/.286/.297	0	1	64	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBBAL	100	.218/.291/.311	1	3	69	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed62

Whiff%60

Z-Con%48

Chase%45

BB%44

K%35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJuan Kelly (age 19) · Carlos Franco (age 20) · Jose Vicente (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .275 / .273

PA55

HR0

K%28

BB%8

ISO70

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	76	16	1	0	1	14	22	1	2	0	211	341	263	604	53	283	24	15	288	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	102	86	21	4	1	0	15	25	1	6	4	244	363	314	677	70	344	25	15	318	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	80	12	1	0	1	10	27	1	2	0	150	253	200	453	50	199	29	11	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	102	90	13	2	1	0	11	30	1	6	4	144	245	189	434	44	218	29	11	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	80	12	1	0	1	10	27	1	2	0	150	253	200	453	50	212	29	11	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	76	16	1	0	1	14	22	1	2	0	211	341	263	604	53	283	24	15	288	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	102	90	13	2	1	0	11	30	1	6	4	144	245	189	434	44	217	29	11	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	—	102	86	21	4	1	0	15	25	1	6	4	244	363	314	677	70	344	25	15	318	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	81	12	1	0	1	10	27	1	2	0	148	253	198	450	49	199	29	11	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	102	89	13	2	1	0	11	30	1	6	4	146	245	191	436	45	218	29	11	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	92	81	12	1	0	1	10	27	1	2	0	148	253	198	450	49	199	29	11	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	102	89	13	2	1	0	11	30	1	6	4	146	245	191	436	45	218	29	11	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BAL	0%	212	191	39	6	1	1	17	59	2	5	1	206	278	276	553	70	287	28	8	255	59	-10	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	BAL	34%	110	99	21	3	1	1	9	30	1	3	1	211	284	291	575	80	289	27	8	263	64	-5	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	BAL	48%	206	185	40	6	1	3	17	56	2	6	2	215	288	305	593	89	290	27	8	271	69	-8	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	317	285	63	10	2	5	26	85	3	9	2	219	292	316	608	98	291	27	8	277	73	-10	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	401	361	80	12	3	7	33	106	4	11	3	222	295	326	621	104	292	26	8	282	77	-11	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	445	400	90	14	3	8	37	117	5	12	3	224	298	335	632	110	293	26	8	286	80	-11	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.8
2033	25	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	445	400	90	14	3	8	37	117	5	12	4	225	298	338	636	113	293	26	8	288	81	-10	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	445	400	91	14	3	9	37	117	5	12	4	225	299	340	639	115	293	26	8	288	81	-10	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2035	27	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	445	400	90	14	3	9	37	117	5	12	4	224	298	337	635	113	293	26	8	287	80	-10	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.8
2036	28	MLB MLE	BAL	59%	445	401	89	14	3	8	37	118	4	12	4	222	295	333	628	110	292	27	8	284	79	-11	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.6
2037	29	MLB MLE	BAL	61%	445	401	89	14	3	8	37	120	4	11	4	220	293	326	619	106	290	27	8	280	76	-13	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.4
2038	30	MLB MLE	BAL	62%	445	401	87	13	3	7	37	121	4	11	4	217	289	318	607	101	288	27	8	276	73	-14	+1	-2	+8	+10	0.2
2039	31	MLB MLE	BAL	63%	426	384	81	12	2	7	35	118	4	10	5	212	284	308	592	96	285	28	8	270	69	-16	+0	-3	+8	+9	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	BAL	34%	38	35	7	1	0	0	3	10	0	1	0	214	286	297	583	83	293	26	8	267	64	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	BAL	48%	100	91	20	3	1	1	8	27	1	3	1	218	291	311	602	92	294	27	8	274	69	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	172	154	34	5	1	3	14	46	2	5	1	222	295	323	618	101	295	27	8	280	73	-5	+1	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	227	204	46	7	2	4	19	60	2	6	2	225	298	333	631	108	296	26	8	286	77	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2032	24	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	252	226	52	8	2	5	21	66	3	7	2	228	301	342	643	114	297	26	8	290	80	-6	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	251	225	52	8	2	5	21	66	3	7	2	229	302	345	647	117	298	26	8	292	81	-6	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	251	225	52	8	2	5	21	66	3	7	2	229	302	348	649	119	297	26	8	293	81	-6	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	247	221	51	8	2	5	21	65	3	7	2	228	301	345	646	117	297	26	9	291	80	-6	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	BAL	59%	263	236	53	8	2	5	22	70	3	7	2	226	299	340	638	114	296	27	8	288	79	-7	+1	-0	+5	+6	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	BAL	61%	271	244	54	8	2	5	22	73	3	7	2	223	296	333	629	110	294	27	8	285	76	-8	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	BAL	62%	277	249	55	8	2	5	23	75	3	7	3	220	292	325	617	105	292	27	8	280	73	-9	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2039	31	MLB CTX	BAL	63%	269	243	52	8	1	4	22	74	2	6	3	216	287	315	602	99	289	28	8	273	69	-10	+0	-2	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2618	2353	528	80	19	47	217	698	28	70	22	224	298	334	632	110	297	27	8	285	74	-74	+5	-4	+47	+57	3.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	132	20	5	12	54	173	7	17	5	226	299	339	638	113	299	27	8	285	74	-18	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4824	4338	946	145	31	81	404	1294	48	130	44	218	292	322	614	104	290	27	8	277	74	-132	+8	-7	+83	+100	5.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	128	20	4	11	54	174	6	18	6	219	291	323	615	104	290	27	8	277	74	-18	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Orioles Black · 102 PAwOBA .311 → .202 (−109)K% 24.5% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.51%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	29.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.71%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	10.37%
HBP% /PA	0.98%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.69%
Singles /BIP	26.23%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.950	×1.008	17.07%
Doubles /BIP	6.56%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	3.77%
Triples /BIP	1.64%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .311 → .202; ISO .070 → .040; BABIP .344 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 92 PAwOBA .282 → .198 (−84)K% 23.9% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.91%	÷1.009	×1.220	—	—	28.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.22%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×1.022	10.88%
HBP% /PA	1.09%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.78%
Singles /BIP	25.93%	÷0.989	×0.680	×1.019	×1.022	18.56%
Doubles /BIP	1.85%	÷1.010	×0.600	×1.019	×1.022	1.15%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.019	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.85%	÷0.913	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.97%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .282 → .198; ISO .053 → .029; BABIP .283 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.0	2,673	46	70	221	291	327	+48	+32	5.1	4.6
/162	664	11	17	+11.9	+8.0	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Saez (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	204/275/273	69	287	0	1	28%	8%	59	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Kelly 2013 · A	19	37→47	35→45	47→45	48	176/243/232	56	227	2	6	23%	8%	36	-3.3	191/269/255	64	241	3	8	20%	9%	52	-2.2	215/276/341	126	296	11	3	30%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Carlos Franco 2012 · A	20	35→45	37→45	52→45	39	172/228/241	69	254	5	9	33%	6%	33	-3.6	203/261/274	71	290	4	8	29%	7%	53	-2.1	214/266/324	110	318	13	2	35%	6%	64	-1.1
✕Jose Vicente 2015 · A	19	40→39	35→50	46→30	43	188/234/251	63	233	2	6	20%	5%	37	-3.3	197/250/284	87	251	6	4	23%	6%	51	-2.3	209/240/342	133	275	15	1	29%	4%	57	-0.7
✕Rainer Nunez 2021 · A	20	36→46	38→45	39→30	42	177/227/252	75	224	6	4	24%	5%	35	-3.4	223/269/348	125	291	14	2	28%	5%	73	-0.6	237/278/350	113	315	14	1	28%	5%	74	-0.5
✕Roberto Perez 2008 · A	19	34	37→40	48→30	42	168/240/236	68	248	5	4	32%	7%	37	-3.3	168/239/242	74	220	6	3	25%	7%	38	-3.2	140/217/207	68	172	7	1	23%	8%	22	-1.6
✕Elehuris Montero 2017 · A	18	36→46	35→55	45→30	45	174/240/232	58	233	3	3	25%	7%	36	-3.4	213/267/327	114	280	10	3	27%	6%	68	-1.0	237/297/419	182	300	24	1	29%	6%	101	+1.1
✕Erick Gonzalez 2011 · A	20	36	34→30	43→50	45	174/239/226	52	241	2	7	27%	7%	34	-3.5	196/288/262	66	246	2	10	19%	11%	61	-1.5	180/304/238	59	213	1	14	14%	15%	61	-0.6
✕Daniel Arribas 2012 · A	19	38→40	35→40	39→45	43	179/241/234	55	243	2	5	26%	6%	36	-3.4	206/268/265	59	271	3	7	23%	7%	53	-2.1	210/274/266	56	281	3	7	25%	7%	55	-0.7
✕David Washington 2010 · A	19	40→38	35→55	49→45	33	181/232/236	55	319	3	6	42%	6%	32	-3.6	192/248/295	103	309	10	6	38%	6%	53	-2.1	198/259/360	162	317	21	5	42%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Mike McDade 2009 · A	20	37→47	37→50	47→30	35	183/222/256	73	273	5	3	34%	4%	33	-3.6	222/263/353	131	317	15	2	33%	4%	72	-0.7	252/298/377	125	322	14	1	25%	5%	89	+0.4
✕David Medina 2009 · A	20	34→42	36→45	45→40	43	164/244/230	65	258	4	5	35%	9%	37	-3.3	201/260/298	97	309	8	4	35%	7%	58	-1.7	196/247/303	107	299	9	2	36%	6%	51	-1.2
✕Danny Contreras 2017 · A	19	35	35→40	49→50	48	167/241/230	63	226	2	8	26%	8%	36	-3.4	184/252/258	74	252	6	6	27%	8%	47	-2.6	192/231/274	82	255	14	2	30%	5%	39	-0.7
✕Luis Tejada 2011 · A	18	37→44	34→45	38→50	43	175/245/226	52	248	1	5	28%	7%	36	-3.3	189/251/259	70	265	4	12	28%	6%	45	-2.7	216/264/322	106	271	10	7	23%	5%	62	-0.8
✕Kelly Aponte 2011 · A	20	36	39→40	49→45	37	177/229/259	82	276	6	4	37%	6%	37	-3.3	195/266/282	87	265	7	6	27%	8%	57	-1.8	174/267/258	85	216	8	5	22%	10%	53	-0.8
✕Derlin Figueroa 2022 · A	18	34→38	34→45	42→50	47	165/247/220	55	243	2	6	31%	9%	36	-3.4	190/262/294	104	257	10	9	29%	8%	59	-1.7	179/248/292	114	235	13	11	29%	8%	51	-1.0
✕Mario Gonzalez 2011 · A	19	39	33→30	43→40	48	181/245/225	44	228	1	5	20%	7%	36	-3.4	194/288/262	68	235	4	5	17%	10%	62	-1.4	163/296/228	64	185	4	3	13%	14%	61	-0.6
✕Jake Gatewood 2016 · A	20	36→40	40→50	43→45	31	174/218/262	87	302	8	7	43%	5%	33	-3.6	191/229/306	115	300	11	5	39%	4%	48	-2.5	180/226/307	128	284	15	5	41%	5%	46	-2.0
✕Joseph Miranda 2014 · A	19	36	37→40	47→40	42	174/230/247	73	240	3	5	28%	6%	34	-3.5	179/227/256	77	229	4	4	22%	6%	35	-3.4	161/205/234	74	196	4	2	20%	5%	22	-1.5
✕Luis Pimentel 2009 · A	20	39	34→40	48→50	49	177/237/230	53	209	2	6	16%	7%	34	-3.5	199/254/275	76	232	6	7	16%	6%	50	-2.3	197/252/275	78	222	7	6	15%	5%	50	-0.8
✕Dalton Smith 2014 · A	20	38	37→40	44→30	36	184/231/256	72	278	5	5	34%	5%	37	-3.3	193/249/279	86	277	7	5	31%	6%	50	-2.3	164/225/245	81	225	8	1	30%	6%	32	-1.3

Victor Saez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps