Luis Fonseca — OGILVIE

Luis Fonseca P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 24 LHP 5'2" / 217 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.21

FIP4.21

K%20.8%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	11	11	39	162	40	8	2	100%	3.5	16.8%	6.2%	10.6%	1.8%	3.00	3.46	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	11	11	39	162	40	8	2	100%	3.5	16.8%	6.2%	10.6%	1.8%	3.00	3.46	—
2025	23	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	11	11	39	162	40	8	2	100%	3.5	24.7%	4.9%	19.8%	1.2%	3.00	2.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	23	0	39	154	44	15	4	0%	1.7	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	3.4%	3.89	4.75	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	23	0	39	154	44	15	4	0%	1.7	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	3.4%	3.89	4.75	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	CWS	9	0	16	65	21	3	1	0%	1.8	32.3%	4.6%	27.7%	1.5%	3.86	1.80	—
2026	24	A RAW	CWS	14	0	23	89	23	12	3	0%	1.6	25.8%	13.5%	12.4%	3.4%	3.91	4.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	37	0	39	165	35	11	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	7.0%	14.5%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	16	0	17	72	15	5	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	7.0%	14.5%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	70	15	5	2	0%	1.0	21.4%	7.0%	14.5%	2.9%	4.19	3.78	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	60	24	0%	1.1	21.4%	7.0%	14.5%	2.9%	4.19	3.78	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		34	11	78	316	59	28	8	32%	2.3	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	2.6%	3.45	4.08	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	28	200	807	149	71	21	32%	2.3	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	2.6%	3.45	4.08	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Fonseca (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.21	20.8%	6.9%	2.9%	—	4.16	21.4%	14.5%	39	-0.05	—	—	—
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	78
Andy Fisher L 2019 · 3.20 FIP	23	SU	3.20	22.8%	4.5%	2.6%	.242	3.66	23.5%	8.7%	89	+0.46	3.13	167	76
Ben Wereski L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	18.6%	7.6%	4.2%	.287	3.73	29.0%	21.6%	20	-1.05	3.73	132	76
Christian Jones L 2015 · 3.32 FIP	24	SU	3.32	18.5%	7.4%	1.6%	.319	4.00	15.0%	3.7%	89	+0.68	3.32	161	76
Michael Costanzo L 2019 · 3.37 FIP	23	SU	3.37	16.3%	6.3%	1.6%	.330	7.03	16.1%	3.3%	72	+3.66	3.28	129	76
Austin Hamilton L 2018 · 4.49 FIP	24	SW	4.49	14.6%	6.5%	3.3%	.323	4.02	17.3%	9.4%	68	-0.47	4.02	135	76
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	76
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	74
Trevor Lane L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	21.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.360	3.10	21.2%	12.6%	91	-0.46	2.13	246	74
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	74
Josh Dye L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	24	SU	3.51	22.0%	7.0%	2.5%	.298	5.34	16.6%	10.4%	79	+1.83	2.79	238	74
Haylen Green L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	16.9%	8.1%	2.4%	.291	4.09	18.6%	7.8%	49	+0.07	4.02	104	74
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	74
Michael Sansone L 2023 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	24.2%	5.2%	3.2%	.338	4.71	16.4%	10.0%	263	+1.23	3.15	291	74
Tyler Holton L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SW	3.35	22.0%	6.6%	2.3%	.393	3.41	22.0%	16.1%	224	+0.06	2.97	436	74
Ben Griset L 2016 · 3.37 FIP	24	SU	3.37	21.1%	9.1%	1.7%	.255	3.74	14.5%	3.6%	49	+0.37	2.91	148	73
Jordan Harrison L 2015 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	15.6%	9.0%	2.0%	.263	4.14	16.3%	0.5%	152	+0.10	3.80	244	73
Dalton Moats L 2019 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.5%	8.1%	3.8%	.286	4.48	22.2%	16.4%	83	-0.19	3.23	322	73
Sean Guenther L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SU	3.73	18.7%	6.4%	2.5%	.256	2.93	23.2%	16.9%	61	-0.80	2.93	339	73
Samuel Strickland L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	24	SW	4.87	19.5%	7.3%	4.5%	.337	3.53	20.1%	14.4%	148	-1.34	2.91	292	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	21.2%	6.9%	1.14	4.20
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19