Luis Fonseca
P
FCL Blue Jays
Age 24
LHP
5'2" / 217 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 23 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98108vR 117
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
K%22.8%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays Red | 11 | 11 | 39 | 162 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 3.5 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 1.9% | 3.00 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays Red | 11 | 11 | 39 | 162 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 3.5 | 24.7% | 4.9% | 19.8% | 1.2% | 3.00 | 2.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 18 | 0 | 31 | 127 | 37 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 4.94 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 0 | 23 | 98 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 54 | 225 | 59 | 20 | 7 | — | — | 26.4% | 8.8% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 0 | 24 | 99 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 3.86 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 80 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 11 | 70 | 289 | 53 | 23 | 8 | 38% | 2.4 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 4.15 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 31 | 200 | 826 | 152 | 66 | 24 | 38% | 2.4 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Fonseca (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.24 | 23.2% | 14.5% | 24 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 79 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2029 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 75 |
| Tyler Holton L 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.18 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .393 | 3.47 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 224 | +0.29 | 3.02 | 409 | 74 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.67 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 208 | +0.95 | 2.03 | 402 | 73 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 73 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 73 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 73 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 73 |
| Ben Griset L 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.43 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .255 | 3.64 | 14.5% | 3.6% | 49 | +0.21 | 2.91 | 148 | 73 |
| Samuel Strickland L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 4.5% | .337 | 3.71 | 20.5% | 14.3% | 133 | -1.15 | 3.09 | 277 | 73 |
| Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 73 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 73 |
| Christian Jones L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.30 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 1.5% | .319 | 4.09 | 15.0% | 3.7% | 89 | +0.79 | 3.30 | 161 | 72 |
| Matt Walker L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.74 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .338 | 4.62 | 12.7% | 2.7% | 41 | -0.12 | 4.27 | 156 | 72 |
| Braulio Lara L 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 72 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 72 |
| Randy Labaut L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.06 | 23.2% | 14.0% | 3.9% | .240 | 4.73 | 19.5% | 5.0% | 190 | -0.33 | 1.91 | 302 | 72 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 72 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.75 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.21 | 3.54 | 146 | 72 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.23 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 3.54 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 62 | -1.69 | 3.54 | 186 | 72 |