Sean Guenther
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 30
LHP
5'11" / 194 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 64 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 122
ERA4.31
FIP4.52
K%17.4%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%10.1%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+1.3 (34%)
SI (41%)
FB-1.7 (44%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 4 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 75% | 2.8 | 26.2% | 2.4% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 0.82 | 1.19 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 4 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 75% | 2.8 | 26.2% | 2.4% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 0.82 | 1.37 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 15 | 88 | 384 | 55 | 8 | 8 | 71% | 4.2 | 10.5% | 2.5% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.29 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 15 | 88 | 384 | 55 | 8 | 8 | 71% | 4.2 | 14.3% | 2.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | 4.48 | 3.30 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 3 | 71 | 292 | 72 | 16 | 5 | 9% | 2.0 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 2.02 | 4.09 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 3 | 71 | 292 | 72 | 16 | 5 | 9% | 2.0 | 24.7% | 5.5% | 19.2% | 1.7% | 2.02 | 2.67 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 1 | 61 | 262 | 69 | 16 | 4 | 2% | 1.5 | 23.2% | 6.3% | 16.9% | 1.9% | 5.19 | 3.01 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 1 | 61 | 262 | 69 | 16 | 4 | 2% | 1.5 | 26.3% | 6.1% | 20.2% | 1.5% | 5.19 | 2.47 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 6 | 51 | 208 | 62 | 12 | 9 | 15% | 1.3 | 23.9% | 6.9% | 17.0% | 8.1% | 3.55 | 6.39 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 6 | 51 | 208 | 62 | 12 | 9 | 15% | 1.3 | 29.8% | 5.8% | 24.0% | 4.3% | 3.55 | 3.67 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 2 | 73 | 295 | 64 | 17 | 4 | 4% | 1.3 | 19.6% | 6.0% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 2.60 | 3.61 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 2 | 73 | 295 | 64 | 17 | 4 | 4% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 5.8% | 15.9% | 1.4% | 2.60 | 2.76 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 16 | 2 | 18 | 77 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 12% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 1.3% | 5.40 | 3.32 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 16 | 2 | 18 | 77 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 12% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 1.3% | 5.40 | 3.32 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 12 | 3 | 17 | 70 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 25% | 1.4 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | DET | 61 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 47 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | DET | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | DET | — | — | 81 | 341 | 62 | 25 | 10 | — | — | 18.2% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.45 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | DET | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 17.4% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.14 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 44 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 53 | 0 | 56 | 234 | 40 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | DET | 48 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 35 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | DET | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 129 | 1 | 145 | 614 | 102 | 49 | 14 | 1% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 4.88 | 3.99 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 1 | 200 | 846 | 140 | 67 | 19 | 1% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 4.88 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 223 | 35 | 390 | 1630 | 302 | 90 | 54 | 16% | 1.7 | 18.6% | 5.5% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 3.65 | 4.06 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 114 | 18 | 200 | 837 | 155 | 46 | 28 | 16% | 1.7 | 18.6% | 5.5% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 3.65 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Guenther (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.95 | 16.9% | 8.5% | 166 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 77 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.02 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .303 | 3.36 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.66 | 3.36 | 113 | 75 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 75 |
| Josh Outman L 2027 · 4.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.70 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | .323 | 5.71 | 12.8% | -1.0% | 86 | +1.01 | 4.70 | 106 | 74 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 74 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 74 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 73 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.69 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .315 | 4.13 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.56 | 4.07 | 424 | 73 |
| Franklin Morales L 2025 · 3.36 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.36 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | .271 | 4.06 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.36 | 101 | 73 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 73 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 72 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 72 |
| Brian Duensing L 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.70 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 198 | 71 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 71 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 70 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 69 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | .304 | 5.19 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +0.67 | 2.68 | 256 | 69 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 69 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.04 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 68 |
| Jose Alvarez L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 20.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | .319 | 3.46 | 16.5% | 9.0% | 80 | -0.31 | 2.82 | 375 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 58 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 1.25 | 4.65 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |