Sean Guenther — OGILVIE

Sean Guenther P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 30 LHP 5'11" / 194 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.24

FIP4.42

K%16.8%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

SL+1.3 (34%)

SI (41%)

FB-1.7 (44%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	4	3	11	42	11	1	0	75%	2.8	26.2%	2.4%	23.8%	0.0%	0.82	1.19	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	4	3	11	42	11	1	0	75%	2.8	26.2%	2.4%	23.8%	0.0%	0.82	1.37	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	15	88	384	55	8	8	71%	4.2	10.5%	2.5%	8.0%	2.9%	4.48	4.11	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	15	88	384	55	8	8	71%	4.2	14.3%	2.1%	12.2%	2.1%	4.48	3.30	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	3	71	292	72	16	5	9%	2.0	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	2.5%	2.02	3.73	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	3	71	292	72	16	5	9%	2.0	24.7%	5.5%	19.2%	1.7%	2.02	2.67	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	61	262	69	16	4	2%	1.5	23.2%	6.3%	16.9%	1.8%	5.19	2.93	+1.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	1	61	262	69	16	4	2%	1.5	26.3%	6.1%	20.2%	1.5%	5.19	2.47	+1.5
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	6	51	208	62	12	9	15%	1.3	22.6%	6.0%	16.6%	7.2%	3.55	5.89	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	6	51	208	62	12	9	15%	1.3	22.6%	6.0%	16.6%	7.2%	3.55	5.89	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	6	51	208	62	12	9	15%	1.3	29.8%	5.8%	24.0%	4.3%	3.55	3.67	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	2	73	295	64	17	4	4%	1.3	18.7%	5.3%	13.4%	1.9%	2.60	3.22	+1.2
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	2	73	295	64	17	4	4%	1.3	18.7%	5.3%	13.4%	1.9%	2.60	3.22	+1.2
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	2	73	295	64	17	4	4%	1.3	21.7%	5.8%	15.9%	1.4%	2.60	2.76	+1.6
2025	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	2	18	77	15	7	1	12%	1.1	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	1.3%	5.40	3.32	+0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	2	18	77	15	7	1	12%	1.1	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	1.3%	5.40	3.32	+0.3
2025	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	2	18	77	15	7	1	12%	1.1	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	1.3%	5.40	3.32	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	1	52	219	35	16	1	2%	1.3	16.0%	7.3%	8.7%	0.5%	5.05	2.93	+1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	12	3	17	70	15	5	2	25%	1.4	17.8%	6.4%	11.4%	3.1%	5.40	4.14	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	12	3	17	70	15	5	2	25%	1.4	17.8%	6.4%	11.4%	3.1%	5.40	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	DET	12	3	17	70	15	5	2	25%	1.4	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	2.9%	5.40	3.76	—
ROS	30	MLB MLE	DET	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.8%	6.8%	10.1%	2.7%	4.24	4.42	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	23	95	19	7	3	—	—	20.2%	7.0%	13.2%	2.8%	5.10	4.21	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	DET	57	0	60	253	42	19	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	7.4%	9.4%	3.0%	4.48	4.64	-0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	DET	53	0	56	234	39	19	8	0%	1.0	16.4%	7.9%	8.5%	3.2%	4.71	4.87	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	DET	21	0	22	93	16	7	3	0%	1.0	16.7%	7.4%	9.4%	3.0%	4.48	4.64	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	DET	30	0	31	131	22	10	4	0%	1.0	16.4%	7.9%	8.5%	3.2%	4.71	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	1	105	444	72	33	8	1%	1.2	16.3%	7.5%	8.8%	1.8%	4.83	3.67	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		173	2	200	846	137	63	15	1%	1.2	16.3%	7.5%	8.8%	1.8%	4.83	3.67	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		223	35	390	1630	296	85	47	16%	1.7	18.2%	5.2%	13.0%	2.9%	3.65	3.81	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	18	200	837	152	44	24	16%	1.7	18.2%	5.2%	13.0%	2.9%	3.65	3.81	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Guenther (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	16.8%	6.8%	2.7%	—	4.75	16.6%	9.0%	116	+0.33	—	—	—
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	76
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	76
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	75
Josh Edgin L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SU	4.02	16.3%	10.2%	1.8%	.303	3.63	29.2%	20.0%	43	-0.39	3.63	113	75
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	74
Franklin Morales L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SU	3.37	15.9%	5.4%	1.7%	.271	4.02	15.0%	7.0%	39	+0.65	3.37	101	74
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	74
Fernando Abad L 2016 · 3.77 FIP	30	SU	3.77	20.7%	10.1%	2.1%	.271	2.95	21.8%	17.1%	88	-0.82	2.37	306	73
David Huff L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	30	SW	3.40	17.1%	3.8%	2.3%	.271	4.06	19.5%	14.6%	52	+0.66	3.40	158	72
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	71
Brian Duensing L 2015 · 4.47 FIP	32	SU	4.47	11.5%	8.1%	2.4%	.252	3.76	20.2%	11.8%	137	-0.71	2.57	198	71
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	71
Dan Jennings L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	30	SU	4.32	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.88	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.44	3.11	244	71
Vidal Nuño L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	30	SU	4.57	20.7%	8.1%	4.0%	.315	4.17	20.6%	15.0%	125	-0.40	4.00	424	70
Buddy Boshers L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	22.9%	6.6%	2.2%	.314	3.73	25.3%	14.9%	55	+0.51	2.80	223	70
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	70
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	69
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	68
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	68
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2019 · 3.68 FIP	29	SU	3.68	17.1%	5.3%	2.5%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	322	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	16.7%	7.3%	1.15	4.47
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66