Sean Guenther
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.3
WAR
Age 30
LHP
5'11" / 194 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA2.84
FIP4.16
xFIP4.38
SIERA4.70
K%21.7%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%14.1%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†4545
SL+1.3 (34%)
SI (41%)
FB-1.7 (44%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 4 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.82 | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 21 | 15 | 88 | 384 | 55 | 8 | 8 | 10.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.12 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 35 | 3 | 71 | 292 | 72 | 16 | 5 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 2.02 | 3.69 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 40 | 1 | 61 | 262 | 69 | 16 | 4 | 23.2% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 5.19 | 2.94 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 39 | 6 | 51 | 208 | 62 | 12 | 9 | 23.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 3.55 | 5.78 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 56 | 2 | 73 | 295 | 64 | 17 | 4 | 19.6% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 2.60 | 3.26 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 16 | 2 | 18 | 77 | 15 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 7 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 7 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 6.30 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.00 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | DET | — | — | 70 | 298 | 53 | 25 | 9 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 3.47 | 3.87 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 42 | 21 | 7 | 17.9% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | DET | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 17.5% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | DET | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 36 | 20 | 7 | 16.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.80 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | DET | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 33 | 19 | 7 | 16.2% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | DET | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 29 | 18 | 6 | 15.4% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 218 | 34 | 383 | 1603 | 296 | 89 | 46 | 18.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 3.64 | 3.82 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 114 | 18 | 200 | 837 | 155 | 46 | 24 | 18.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 3.64 | 3.82 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Guenther (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.68 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 168 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.62 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.46 | 3.62 | 113 | 80 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 79 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 79 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.03 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.70 | 2.38 | 306 | 79 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 78 |
| Roy Merritt L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 78 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 77 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 76 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 76 |
| Franklin Morales L 2025 · 3.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.33 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% | .271 | 4.03 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.33 | 101 | 76 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.69 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.23 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.54 | 3.69 | 146 | 75 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 75 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 75 |
| Marlon Arias L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 74 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.24 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.37 | 4.10 | 424 | 74 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 73 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.45 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +1.05 | 2.65 | 256 | 73 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 155 | 72 |
| Brian Duensing L 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 72 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.