Juan Alva

IF FCL Marlins

Age 21 L/R 6'1" / 183 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKDSL Miami	201	.323/.447/.429	1	19	74	—	.224/.330/.282
2026	20	ROKMIA	139	.318/.475/.458	4	13	91	—	.227/.338/.319
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBMIA	249	.221/.298/.306	3	6	73	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBMIA	67	.218/.296/.305	1	2	77	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBMIA	151	.221/.298/.314	2	4	81	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wRC+92

Whiff%91

Z-Con%89

wOBA88

BB%87

K%86

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsChandler Simpson (age 22) · Carlos Rodríguez (age 22) · Yoel Yanqui (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 116 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .296 / .303

PA116

HR1

K%25

BB%8

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	201	161	52	12	1	1	27	30	9	19	4	323	447	429	875	106	381	15	13	393	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	139	107	34	3	0	4	30	19	2	13	2	318	475	458	933	140	357	14	22	425	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	170	38	8	1	0	18	35	9	19	4	224	330	282	612	59	261	17	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	139	119	27	2	0	3	18	27	2	13	2	227	338	319	657	92	271	19	13	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	170	38	8	1	0	18	35	9	19	4	224	330	282	612	59	273	17	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	201	161	52	12	1	1	27	30	9	19	4	323	447	429	875	106	381	15	13	393	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	139	119	27	2	0	3	18	27	2	13	2	227	338	319	657	92	270	19	13	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	139	107	34	3	0	4	30	19	2	13	2	318	475	458	933	140	357	14	22	425	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	172	38	8	1	0	18	35	9	19	4	221	330	279	609	58	261	17	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	139	118	27	2	0	3	18	27	2	13	2	229	338	322	660	93	271	19	13	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	201	172	38	8	1	0	18	35	9	19	4	221	330	279	609	58	261	17	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	139	118	27	2	0	3	18	27	2	13	2	229	338	322	660	93	271	19	13	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	249	223	49	8	1	3	21	62	3	6	1	221	298	306	604	84	291	25	8	277	73	-8	+1	+0	+0	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	195	173	39	7	1	2	17	48	3	5	1	225	302	318	620	93	292	25	9	283	77	-5	+1	+0	+0	+4	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	311	277	64	11	2	5	27	75	4	8	1	228	304	328	632	100	293	24	9	287	81	-7	+1	+0	+0	+7	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	392	350	80	14	2	6	34	94	5	10	2	230	307	335	642	106	294	24	9	291	83	-8	+1	+0	+0	+8	0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	439	392	91	15	3	8	38	105	6	11	2	231	308	341	649	110	294	24	9	294	85	-8	+1	+0	+0	+10	0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	467	418	96	16	3	8	40	112	6	11	2	232	308	345	653	113	293	24	9	296	86	-8	+1	+0	+0	+10	0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	479	429	100	17	3	9	41	115	6	11	2	231	307	342	650	111	293	24	9	294	85	-8	+1	+0	+0	+10	0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	483	432	99	17	3	8	42	117	6	11	2	229	305	337	643	109	292	24	9	291	83	-10	+1	-1	+0	+10	0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	478	428	96	16	2	8	41	117	6	10	2	226	302	331	634	105	291	24	9	288	81	-11	+1	-1	+0	+10	-0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	471	423	94	16	2	7	40	117	5	9	2	223	299	323	622	100	289	25	8	283	78	-13	+1	-2	+0	+10	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	67	60	13	2	0	1	6	16	1	2	0	218	296	305	600	87	283	24	9	275	77	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	151	135	30	5	1	2	13	37	2	4	1	221	298	314	612	93	284	25	9	280	81	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	207	184	41	7	1	3	18	50	3	5	1	223	300	321	622	99	285	24	9	283	83	-4	+1	+0	+0	+4	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	240	214	48	8	1	4	21	58	3	6	1	224	301	327	628	103	285	24	9	286	85	-4	+1	+0	+0	+5	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	260	233	51	8	1	4	22	62	3	6	1	225	302	330	632	106	284	24	8	287	86	-4	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	263	235	51	8	1	4	23	63	3	6	1	224	301	328	629	104	284	24	9	286	85	-5	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	264	236	51	8	1	4	23	64	3	6	1	222	299	323	622	102	283	24	9	283	83	-5	+1	-0	+0	+6	0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	255	228	50	8	1	4	22	63	3	5	1	219	296	317	613	98	282	25	9	280	81	-6	+1	-1	+0	+6	-0.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	248	222	49	8	1	4	21	62	3	5	1	217	293	310	602	93	280	25	8	275	78	-7	+1	-1	+0	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1955	1747	384	62	8	30	169	475	24	45	8	220	297	316	613	96	283	24	9	282	82	-40	+6	-2	+0	+42	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	128	21	3	10	56	158	8	15	3	220	298	318	616	98	284	24	9	282	82	-13	+2	-1	+0	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4171	3714	847	143	23	65	366	991	60	121	22	228	307	331	639	103	292	24	9	290	82	-81	+11	-4	+0	+83	1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	132	22	4	10	57	154	9	19	3	228	307	332	638	104	292	24	9	290	82	-14	+2	-1	+0	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Jimmy Burke'01-'05 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,093 PA	3.2	2,093	1	86	236*	296*	348*	+7	+4	2.7	2.7
/162	664	0	27	+2.3	+1.4	0.9	pk7: 3
#4Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.1	2,070	34	48	229	302	335	+0	+0	2.0	2.0
/162	664	11	15	+0.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 2
#5John Kerr'23-'34 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,631 PA	2.5	1,631	6	26	238*	297*	338*	+7	+3	0.7	1.1
/162	664	2	11	+2.9	+1.3	0.3	pk7: 2
#6Carlos Febles'98-'03 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,892 PA	2.8	1,892	24	68	239*	316*	342*	+6	-4	0.5	0.5
/162	664	8	24	+2.2	-1.5	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Alva (OGILVIE)	21	55	25	60	50	219/296/303	84	291	1	3	25%	8%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	48→58	38→30	56→70	48	226/293/312	85	299	4	17	24%	8%	73	-0.6	267/311/317	50	307	1	59	12%	6%	80	-0.2	302/334/348	46	335	0	63	9%	5%	94	+0.8
✕Carlos Rodríguez 2023 · A	22	47→57	39→40	52→55	44	222/282/309	86	303	5	16	27%	7%	68	-1.0	253/306/331	78	303	4	15	17%	7%	82	-0.0	258/310/330	72	296	5	18	14%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Yoel Yanqui 2018 · A	22	47→52	38→40	56→50	50	222/291/309	87	285	4	12	22%	9%	72	-0.7	226/279/313	87	310	6	11	27%	7%	68	-1.0	219/276/310	91	303	7	11	28%	7%	65	-0.8
✕BJ Boyd 2014 · A	21	48→57	38→45	54→50	44	219/284/305	86	322	4	15	31%	8%	68	-1.0	224/274/302	78	294	5	10	24%	6%	63	-1.3	259/306/366	107	315	10	10	20%	5%	87	+0.2
✕Brent Keys 2012 · A	22	46→56	35→30	51→50	48	215/287/274	58	284	3	14	24%	8%	63	-1.4	272/328/340	68	307	3	12	12%	7%	92	+0.7	282/343/338	56	313	2	12	10%	8%	94	+0.6
✕Forrest Wall 2017 · A	21	47→55	40→45	52→70	43	226/279/321	95	294	7	17	25%	6%	70	-0.9	222/278/324	102	303	9	19	28%	7%	70	-0.8	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Rashad Brown 2016 · A	22	52	35→30	54→55	44	242/288/300	58	306	2	12	21%	5%	68	-1.0	224/268/289	65	306	2	14	26%	5%	58	-1.7	218/261/267	49	304	0	18	27%	4%	47	-1.5
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2021 · A	22	48→58	36→40	54→60	48	224/283/291	67	266	2	17	16%	6%	64	-1.3	236/292/320	84	308	5	24	23%	6%	74	-0.5	260/318/350	90	329	5	34	21%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Darrell Ceciliani 2012 · A	22	48→56	39→45	52→55	44	225/285/312	87	301	6	16	26%	7%	70	-0.8	247/294/342	95	330	6	18	26%	5%	80	-0.2	259/299/367	108	345	9	26	26%	4%	86	+0.2
✕Raynel Delgado 2021 · A	21	47→56	37→40	50→60	42	220/272/295	75	312	4	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	203/267/292	89	295	7	14	31%	7%	59	-1.6	246/311/338	92	338	7	32	27%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	197/266/263	67	278	4	12	29%	8%	53	-2.1	208/305/278	70	291	4	26	27%	9%	72	-0.7	223/339/272	49	296	2	35	22%	11%	80	-0.0
✕Travis Jankowski 2013 · A	22	50→60	37→40	53→65	40	236/271/315	79	305	4	17	24%	4%	65	-1.2	253/305/322	69	324	2	35	21%	7%	79	-0.2	268/334/344	76	339	3	37	20%	8%	94	+0.5
✕Jake Shaffer 2009 · A	21	43→53	38→45	52→45	42	207/257/288	81	283	5	15	28%	6%	54	-2.0	250/282/362	112	317	9	7	23%	4%	80	-0.2	265/295/386	122	329	9	6	22%	3%	87	+0.3
✕Andy Sugilio 2018 · A	21	47→50	37→40	55→50	42	225/265/304	79	283	4	15	22%	5%	60	-1.6	234/263/305	71	308	4	14	24%	4%	59	-1.7	236/264/296	59	316	4	15	26%	3%	55	-1.1
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2010 · A	21	48→58	40	53→55	48	229/290/321	92	280	7	19	20%	7%	74	-0.5	243/313/310	67	292	3	20	16%	8%	80	-0.1	247/319/303	56	295	2	22	15%	8%	77	-0.3
✕Theo Bowe 2012 · A	21	47→57	36→30	51→60	44	217/276/280	63	298	3	19	27%	7%	59	-1.6	230/285/300	70	305	4	31	24%	7%	67	-1.1	236/291/299	63	308	4	41	23%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Corey Adamson 2014 · A	22	46→51	37→40	53→50	46	215/283/292	77	295	4	18	27%	8%	65	-1.2	228/292/337	109	303	9	15	26%	7%	78	-0.3	230/294/356	127	297	11	15	25%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Brennon Lund 2017 · A	22	51→56	38→45	53→50	41	241/282/324	84	308	6	14	23%	5%	71	-0.8	241/293/337	96	322	7	14	26%	6%	78	-0.3	238/293/340	103	320	7	14	27%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Luis Durango 2023 · A	20	45	35→30	53→70	48	209/290/266	57	271	3	24	22%	8%	63	-1.4	216/288/274	58	294	2	32	25%	6%	63	-1.3	249/303/294	44	325	0	54	21%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Dru Baker 2022 · A	22	45→55	38→40	56→60	41	213/265/295	82	297	4	14	29%	6%	59	-1.7	241/298/346	105	336	10	30	29%	7%	83	+0.1	250/304/340	90	346	8	39	28%	6%	80	-0.1

Juan Alva

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps