Victor Diaz — OGILVIE

Victor Diaz P Dayton Dragons

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%20.1%

BB%18.2%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	27	0	39	190	46	33	0	0%	1.5	17.9%	20.5%	-2.6%	0.0%	7.78	4.18	—
2025	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	27	0	39	190	46	33	0	0%	1.5	17.9%	20.5%	-2.6%	0.0%	7.78	4.18	—
2025	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	27	0	39	190	46	33	0	0%	1.5	24.2%	17.4%	6.8%	0.0%	7.78	3.28	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	60	277	84	43	5	0%	1.6	25.6%	18.6%	7.0%	2.7%	4.33	4.79	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	60	277	84	43	5	0%	1.6	25.6%	18.6%	7.0%	2.7%	4.33	4.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CIN	31	0	51	229	76	37	5	0%	1.7	33.2%	16.2%	17.0%	2.2%	3.33	3.54	—
2026	23	AA RAW	CIN	6	0	9	48	8	6	0	0%	1.5	16.7%	12.5%	4.2%	0.0%	10.00	3.28	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	58	0	61	256	54	40	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	15.5%	5.6%	2.7%	5.27	5.15	-0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	58	0	61	259	56	36	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.7%	7.9%	2.7%	5.01	4.88	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	25	0	26	110	23	17	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	15.5%	5.6%	2.7%	5.27	5.15	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	39	0	41	173	37	24	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.7%	7.9%	2.7%	5.01	4.88	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	67	282	60	41	8	0%	1.0	21.4%	14.4%	7.0%	2.7%	5.11	4.61	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	123	24	0%	1.1	21.4%	14.4%	7.0%	2.7%	5.11	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		64	0	100	467	105	90	8	0%	1.6	22.4%	19.4%	3.1%	1.6%	5.69	4.55	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	0	200	937	210	181	15	0%	1.6	22.4%	19.4%	3.1%	1.6%	5.69	4.55	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Diaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	20.1%	18.2%	2.7%	—	5.01	21.4%	6.7%	122	-0.57	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	90
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	88
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	87
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	87
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	87
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	87
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	87
Mason McCullough R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	23	SU	4.60	20.8%	19.2%	1.5%	.340	3.93	26.7%	6.9%	77	-0.67	3.33	154	86
Carson Coleman R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	23	SU	4.41	21.1%	17.8%	1.5%	.347	2.40	30.2%	21.7%	63	-2.01	2.40	143	86
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	86
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	86
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	85
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	85
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	85
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	85
Michael Cederoth R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	21.6%	18.6%	1.5%	.286	5.60	21.6%	1.7%	35	+1.13	4.10	118	84
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	84
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	84
Juan Mendez R 2022 · 4.99 FIP	23	SU	4.99	21.0%	17.9%	2.5%	.279	5.12	22.5%	7.9%	82	+0.13	3.69	156	84
Adonis Villavicencio R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SU	4.65	21.5%	21.9%	1.1%	.316	3.93	18.0%	3.9%	90	-0.72	3.21	115	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	21.2%	15.2%	1.05	5.21
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84