Victor Diaz
P
Dayton Dragons
+0.2
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%10.7%
IP33
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 27 | 0 | 39 | 190 | 46 | 33 | 0 | 17.9% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 7.78 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 3 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.15 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 22.3% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 38 | 166 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 22.5% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 23.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 23.0% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 0 | 44 | 215 | 40 | 43 | 1 | 18.6% | 20.0% | 0.5% | 7.42 | 4.31 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 0 | 200 | 985 | 183 | 197 | 5 | 18.6% | 20.0% | 0.5% | 7.42 | 4.31 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Victor Diaz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 22.3% | 11.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.30 | 23.3% | 13.1% | 103 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 94 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 92 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 91 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 91 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .340 | 4.56 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.66 | 3.90 | 132 | 91 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 91 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 91 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 91 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 91 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 91 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 90 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 90 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 90 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 90 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 90 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 183 | 89 |
| Zac Ryan R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .233 | 3.93 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.07 | 3.84 | 184 | 89 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 4.99 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.09 | 3.35 | 394 | 89 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 88 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||