Victor Diaz
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 23 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
K%22.3%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 27 | 0 | 39 | 190 | 46 | 33 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.9% | 20.5% | -2.6% | 0.0% | 7.78 | 4.18 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 27 | 0 | 39 | 190 | 46 | 33 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.2% | 17.4% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 7.78 | 3.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 22 | 0 | 35 | 165 | 54 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.2% | 19.5% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 3.06 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.55 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 59 | 264 | 76 | 39 | 6 | — | — | 28.8% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | 3.65 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.3% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.17 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.00 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 75 | 355 | 76 | 71 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.3% | 20.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 5.54 | 4.42 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 131 | 0 | 200 | 951 | 203 | 191 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.3% | 20.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 5.54 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Victor Diaz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 22.3% | 11.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.37 | 22.9% | 12.3% | 24 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 93 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 91 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 91 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 90 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 90 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 90 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 89 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 89 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 88 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 88 |
| Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | .342 | 3.78 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 128 | -0.49 | 3.26 | 155 | 88 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 1.9% | .340 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.64 | 3.85 | 132 | 88 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | .324 | 4.02 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.65 | 3.50 | 152 | 88 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 88 |
| Joey Stock R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.38 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .275 | 5.22 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 95 | +1.84 | 3.38 | 121 | 87 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .278 | 6.27 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.82 | 4.27 | 103 | 87 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.76 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .254 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 6.3% | 154 | -0.24 | 4.09 | 183 | 87 |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 87 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 87 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 87 |