Jonathan Todd
P
Vancouver Canadians
Age 24
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.88
FIP4.88
K%22.9%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 54.5% | 9.1% | 45.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.35 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 54.5% | 9.1% | 45.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.10 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 32 | 0 | 45 | 199 | 59 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.8% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 4.76 | 6.52 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 32 | 0 | 45 | 199 | 59 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.6% | 10.1% | 19.6% | 4.0% | 4.76 | 4.11 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 24 | 0 | 42 | 173 | 42 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 18.7% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.64 | 5.44 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TOR | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 55 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.88 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 99 | 414 | 97 | 49 | 14 | — | — | 23.5% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 5.12 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.9% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 57 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 44 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 0 | 108 | 454 | 107 | 45 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.29 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 84 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 59 | 0 | 90 | 383 | 84 | 50 | 20 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 4.08 | 5.83 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 131 | 0 | 200 | 848 | 185 | 112 | 45 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 4.08 | 5.83 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Todd (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 3.6% | — | 4.67 | 23.5% | 13.6% | 172 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 92 |
| Cody Tucker R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 90 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 90 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 90 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 89 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 89 |
| Simon Miller R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.08 | 22.7% | 11.1% | 4.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 102 | 89 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 88 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 88 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 87 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 87 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 87 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 86 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.38 | 15.5% | 5.5% | 20 | +0.10 | 4.28 | 195 | 86 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.89 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.73 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 95 | +0.84 | 3.78 | 217 | 86 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 86 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 86 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 86 |
| Steven Wilson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.13 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .271 | 3.80 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.33 | 3.36 | 311 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 23.3% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.74 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |