Jonathan Todd — OGILVIE

Jonathan Todd P Vancouver Canadians

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%22.9%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	3	0	3	11	6	1	0	0%	1.0	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.35	—
2024	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	3	0	3	11	6	1	0	0%	1.0	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.35	—
2024	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	3	0	3	11	6	1	0	0%	1.0	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	32	0	45	199	59	20	8	0%	1.4	22.8%	11.6%	11.3%	5.9%	4.76	5.86	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	32	0	45	199	59	20	8	0%	1.4	22.8%	11.6%	11.3%	5.9%	4.76	5.86	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	32	0	45	199	59	20	8	0%	1.4	29.6%	10.1%	19.6%	4.0%	4.76	4.11	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	40	0	61	272	61	42	9	0%	1.5	17.5%	17.5%	0.0%	4.1%	4.75	6.07	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	40	0	61	272	61	42	9	0%	1.5	17.5%	17.5%	0.0%	4.1%	4.75	6.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	TOR	27	0	45	192	44	29	5	0%	1.7	22.9%	15.1%	7.8%	2.6%	3.80	4.51	—
2026	24	AA RAW	TOR	13	0	16	80	17	13	4	0%	1.2	21.2%	16.2%	5.0%	5.0%	7.47	6.11	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TOR	57	0	60	254	59	26	9	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.3%	13.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.65	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	57	0	60	254	60	26	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.2%	13.4%	3.3%	4.64	4.61	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	TOR	25	0	26	110	26	11	4	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.3%	13.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.65	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	38	0	40	169	40	17	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.2%	13.4%	3.3%	4.64	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	278	65	28	9	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	3.3%	4.67	4.25	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	85	27	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	3.3%	4.67	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		75	0	109	482	99	72	23	0%	1.5	20.6%	14.9%	5.7%	4.7%	4.62	5.84	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	0	200	884	182	131	42	0%	1.5	20.6%	14.9%	5.7%	4.7%	4.62	5.84	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Todd (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	22.9%	11.2%	3.4%	—	4.63	23.4%	13.2%	120	-0.21	—	—	—
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	91
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	91
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	90
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	89
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	89
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	88
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	88
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	88
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	88
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	87
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	87
Chris Mauloni R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	23	SU	4.82	25.6%	11.5%	4.4%	.333	5.67	17.6%	1.4%	71	+0.85	4.82	129	87
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	86
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	86
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	86
Alec Barger R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	24	SU	4.19	23.9%	11.4%	3.0%	.365	4.58	19.8%	7.4%	132	+0.39	3.85	242	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	23.3%	10.5%	1.30	4.73
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64