Zachary Redner
P
Tri-City Dust Devils
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129119vR 110
ERA4.85
FIP4.85
K%15.2%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%6.1%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 51 | 230 | 48 | 15 | 2 | 3% | 1.6 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 0.5% | 4.94 | 2.99 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 51 | 230 | 48 | 15 | 2 | 3% | 1.6 | 20.9% | 6.5% | 14.3% | 0.9% | 4.94 | 2.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 21 | 5 | 46 | 196 | 37 | 17 | 3 | 24% | 2.2 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 4.14 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAA | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 27 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.2% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 4.85 | 4.85 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 88 | 373 | 64 | 33 | 8 | — | — | 17.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 4.85 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAA | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.23 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 145 | 73 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 6 | 97 | 426 | 65 | 37 | 5 | 12% | 1.9 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 4.56 | 3.54 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 12 | 200 | 881 | 134 | 76 | 10 | 12% | 1.9 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 4.56 | 3.54 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zachary Redner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.61 | 17.3% | 8.5% | 44 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Josnier Parra R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.51 | 15.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | .319 | 5.13 | 11.0% | 3.0% | 97 | +0.62 | 3.79 | 129 | 93 |
| Tyler Zombro R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.37 | 14.6% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.67 | 15.7% | 12.7% | 134 | -1.70 | 2.25 | 172 | 89 |
| Jack Carey R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.47 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 156 | -0.08 | 3.71 | 250 | 89 |
| Logan Lombana R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.63 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.97 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 123 | -0.66 | 3.82 | 155 | 89 |
| Frainger Aranguren R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.06 | 14.6% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.84 | 13.1% | -1.9% | 70 | +0.78 | 3.20 | 234 | 88 |
| Justin Lasko R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.72 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.78 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 152 | +1.06 | 3.72 | 173 | 87 |
| Joseilyn Gonzalez R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.03 | 14.5% | 8.5% | 3.8% | .321 | 5.14 | 14.5% | -3.2% | 107 | +0.11 | 5.00 | 148 | 87 |
| Luis F. Castillo R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.51 | 16.7% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .337 | 3.45 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 96 | -1.06 | 2.93 | 254 | 87 |
| Robbie Welhaf R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 14.0% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .309 | 3.26 | 18.1% | 15.0% | 90 | -0.80 | 3.26 | 121 | 87 |
| Francisco Moreno R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.19 | 14.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .297 | 6.09 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 84 | +1.90 | 3.86 | 162 | 86 |
| Matt Pidich R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.13 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 115 | -0.29 | 4.10 | 196 | 86 |
| Jaime Lugo R 2028 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.18 | 13.2% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.94 | 12.4% | 3.6% | 162 | -0.24 | 3.77 | 287 | 85 |
| Erick Casillas R 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.13 | 13.7% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .255 | 4.36 | 20.2% | 13.3% | 44 | +0.23 | 4.13 | 142 | 85 |
| Luis Payan R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 13.8% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .360 | 3.78 | 16.0% | 9.8% | 79 | -0.09 | 3.78 | 134 | 85 |
| Mariano Rivera R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.35 | 12.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.00 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 66 | -0.35 | 3.50 | 135 | 85 |
| Ryan McNeil R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.82 | 15.8% | 10.6% | 1.3% | .311 | 4.70 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 94 | +0.88 | 3.39 | 155 | 85 |
| Connor Eller R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.35 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% | .222 | 4.54 | 10.8% | -1.2% | 136 | +0.19 | 3.74 | 170 | 85 |
| Jake McCasland R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.86 | 14.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .348 | 3.94 | 15.8% | 8.2% | 317 | -0.92 | 3.27 | 367 | 85 |
| Jesus Brea R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.42 | 14.1% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.41 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 20 | -1.01 | 3.41 | 134 | 85 |
| Carlos Torres R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 1.8% | .315 | 4.35 | 15.0% | 8.4% | 106 | +0.41 | 3.60 | 168 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 43 | 16.3% | 9.0% | 1.05 | 4.76 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |