Zachary Redner — OGILVIE

Zachary Redner P Tri-City Dust Devils

+0.3 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2029

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.7%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.9%

IP50

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2029

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	20	A	Inland Empire 66ers	31	1	51	230	48	15	2	15.9%	7.4%	0.6%	4.94	3.00	+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	3	0	8	33	12	1	1	—	—	—	2.16	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	LAA	50	—	50	211	46	18	6	21.7%	8.8%	2.7%	4.25	4.25	+0.4
2026 Total	21	MLB	LAA	—	—	58	244	58	19	7	23.7%	8.0%	2.8%	3.95	3.64	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	LAA	52	—	52	222	50	19	6	22.7%	8.3%	2.7%	4.16	4.09	+0.5
2028	23	MLB	LAA	54	—	54	230	54	19	6	23.5%	8.1%	2.7%	4.06	3.99	+0.6
2029	24	MLB	LAA	56	—	56	236	57	19	6	24.1%	7.9%	2.7%	3.98	3.91	+0.7
2030	25	MLB	LAA	57	—	57	239	58	19	6	24.4%	7.8%	2.6%	3.92	3.87	+0.7
2031	26	MLB	LAA	57	—	57	239	59	19	6	24.6%	7.8%	2.6%	3.87	3.84	+0.7
2032	27	MLB	LAA	56	—	56	237	58	19	6	24.6%	7.8%	2.7%	3.86	3.85	+0.7
2033	28	MLB	LAA	55	—	55	234	58	18	6	24.6%	7.9%	2.7%	3.87	3.88	+0.7
2034	29	MLB	LAA	54	—	54	229	56	18	6	24.5%	8.0%	2.7%	3.90	3.93	+0.6
2035	30	MLB	LAA	53	—	53	222	54	18	6	24.3%	8.1%	2.8%	3.95	3.99	+0.6
2036	31	MLB	LAA	51	—	51	214	52	18	6	24.0%	8.2%	2.9%	4.02	4.06	+0.5
2037	32	MLB	LAA	49	—	49	206	49	17	6	23.8%	8.3%	2.9%	4.10	4.15	+0.4
2038	33	MLB	LAA	47	—	47	197	46	17	6	23.4%	8.5%	3.0%	4.19	4.25	+0.4
2039	34	MLB	LAA	44	—	44	187	43	16	6	23.1%	8.7%	3.1%	4.29	4.36	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			34	1	59	263	48	18	2	18.4%	6.8%	0.9%	4.55	2.89	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—			115	3	200	887	162	61	7	18.4%	6.8%	0.9%	4.55	2.89	+5.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zachary Redner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	21.7%	8.8%	2.7%	—	3.99	23.4%	15.3%	163	-0.26	—	—	—
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	93
Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	93
David Garner R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	92
Peyton Remy R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	21	SW	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.71	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.14	3.57	286	92
Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.10	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.65	4.45	283	91
Alexis Rivero R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	21	SW	3.86	19.3%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	5.05	14.0%	3.4%	143	+1.19	3.86	280	91
Yimmi Brasoban R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	21	SW	3.90	20.4%	10.2%	2.3%	.261	4.36	16.7%	5.3%	78	+0.46	3.33	149	91
Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	90
Will Latcham R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	22	SW	3.49	20.1%	9.4%	1.7%	.262	5.25	16.0%	4.7%	79	+1.76	3.49	134	90
RJ Petit R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	22	SW	4.50	20.3%	8.4%	3.7%	.270	3.45	22.5%	12.8%	177	-1.05	3.09	231	89
Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	89
Billy Corcoran R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	89
John Klein R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	21	SW	4.53	17.4%	11.4%	2.6%	.287	3.72	19.4%	10.1%	207	-0.81	3.22	260	89
Brett Standlee R 2028 · 4.11 FIP	23	SW	4.11	19.7%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	4.48	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.37	4.11	128	88
Nick Gallagher R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.56	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.32	4.10	196	88
Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	88
Jared Karros R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	22	SW	4.78	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.27	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	88
William Kempner R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	88
Jesus Lugo R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	21	SW	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.27	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.48	3.79	113	88
Dylan Simmons R 2028 · 3.83 FIP	23	SW	3.83	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	4.33	12.8%	0.9%	51	+0.50	3.83	102	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.7M
Totals		$8M		$19M	+$11M