Zachary Redner — OGILVIE

Zachary Redner P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A+ peak 0.6 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%15.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	51	230	48	15	2	3%	1.6	15.9%	7.4%	8.5%	0.6%	4.94	3.00	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	51	230	48	15	2	3%	1.6	15.9%	7.4%	8.5%	0.6%	4.94	3.00	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	1	51	230	48	15	2	3%	1.6	20.9%	6.5%	14.3%	0.9%	4.94	2.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	31	9	76	341	62	26	8	29%	2.5	14.0%	8.8%	5.2%	2.9%	5.07	4.64	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	31	9	76	341	62	26	8	29%	2.5	14.0%	8.8%	5.2%	2.9%	5.07	4.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	LAA	31	9	76	341	62	26	8	29%	2.5	18.2%	7.6%	10.6%	2.3%	5.07	3.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	LAA	75	0	78	331	57	27	9	0%	1.0	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.7%	4.62	4.54	+0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAA	78	0	81	344	64	27	9	0%	1.0	18.5%	8.0%	10.5%	2.7%	4.48	4.39	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAA	79	0	83	352	68	27	9	0%	1.1	19.2%	7.8%	11.5%	2.7%	4.37	4.30	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAA	80	0	84	356	70	27	9	0%	1.1	19.7%	7.6%	12.1%	2.6%	4.29	4.24	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAA	80	0	84	356	71	27	9	0%	1.1	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	2.6%	4.25	4.22	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAA	79	0	83	351	70	27	9	0%	1.1	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.25	4.25	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAA	77	0	81	340	67	27	10	0%	1.0	19.8%	7.8%	11.9%	2.8%	4.30	4.34	+0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAA	73	0	77	325	70	24	10	0%	1.1	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	2.9%	4.24	4.20	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAA	69	0	72	306	65	23	10	0%	1.0	21.2%	7.5%	13.6%	3.1%	4.32	4.38	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	LAA	37	0	39	165	29	14	4	0%	1.1	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.7%	4.62	4.54	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAA	56	0	59	249	46	20	7	0%	1.1	18.5%	8.0%	10.5%	2.7%	4.48	4.39	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAA	66	0	69	291	56	23	8	0%	1.0	19.2%	7.8%	11.5%	2.7%	4.37	4.30	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAA	71	0	75	317	62	24	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	7.6%	12.1%	2.6%	4.29	4.24	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAA	73	0	77	325	65	25	9	0%	1.1	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	2.6%	4.25	4.22	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAA	73	0	77	325	65	25	9	0%	1.1	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.25	4.25	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAA	71	0	75	317	63	25	9	0%	1.1	19.8%	7.8%	11.9%	2.8%	4.30	4.34	+0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAA	70	0	73	308	66	22	9	0%	1.0	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	2.9%	4.24	4.20	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAA	66	0	69	291	62	22	9	0%	1.0	21.2%	7.5%	13.6%	3.1%	4.32	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		584	0	613	2590	513	199	72	0%	1.1	19.8%	7.7%	12.1%	2.8%	4.33	3.92	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	65	23	0%	1.1	19.8%	7.7%	12.1%	2.8%	4.33	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		62	10	127	571	84	47	11	16%	2.1	14.7%	8.2%	6.5%	2.0%	5.02	3.98	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	16	200	897	132	74	18	16%	2.1	14.7%	8.2%	6.5%	2.0%	5.02	3.98	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zachary Redner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	15.2%	8.6%	2.7%	—	4.41	18.4%	10.4%	243	-0.36	—	—	—
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	90
Luis Payan R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	21	SU	3.99	13.8%	6.7%	2.2%	.360	4.08	16.0%	9.8%	79	+0.09	3.99	134	87
A.J. Bogucki R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	22	SW	3.84	15.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.308	4.40	19.2%	8.2%	87	+0.56	3.84	142	87
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	86
Nolan Kingham R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SW	4.70	12.1%	8.7%	2.8%	.338	4.22	13.1%	7.0%	260	-0.48	3.93	533	86
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	86
Francisco Moreno R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	21	SU	4.36	14.9%	11.5%	1.9%	.297	6.32	9.9%	-2.0%	84	+1.96	3.88	162	86
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	85
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	85
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	85
Frainger Aranguren R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	21	SU	4.06	14.6%	8.3%	2.1%	.305	4.81	13.1%	-1.9%	70	+0.75	3.20	234	85
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	85
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	85
Davis Martin R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SW	3.59	16.3%	8.2%	1.5%	.317	4.71	18.9%	10.7%	233	+1.12	3.56	738	85
Erick Casillas R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	20	SW	4.24	13.7%	9.0%	2.1%	.255	4.30	20.2%	13.3%	44	+0.06	4.24	142	85
Joseilyn Gonzalez R 2022 · 4.98 FIP	20	SU	4.98	14.5%	8.5%	3.7%	.321	5.20	14.5%	-3.2%	107	+0.22	4.98	168	84
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	84
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	84
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	84
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	77	19.4%	7.8%	1.07	4.37
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04