Brandon Downer

P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	10	7	42	3.67	2.98	20.0%	7.4%	—	K 14.2% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.92
2026	23	MIX3 levels	30	2	66	6.95	5.18	16.7%	11.9%	—	K 12.7% · BB 13.4% · FIP 5.79
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	38	0	40	5.47	5.47	15.0%	12.1%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBAL	25	0	26	5.23	5.14	17.1%	11.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBBAL	38	0	40	5.07	5.01	18.4%	10.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRyan Vogelsong (age 24) · Brad Deppermann (age 25) · Reece Karalus (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.47

FIP5.47

K%15.0%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%2.9%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	42	175	35	13	2	70%	4.2	14.2%	9.0%	5.2%	1.6%	3.67	3.92	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	42	175	35	13	2	70%	4.2	14.2%	9.0%	5.2%	1.6%	3.67	3.92	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	7	42	175	35	13	2	70%	4.2	20.0%	7.4%	12.6%	1.1%	3.67	2.98	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	2	66	312	52	37	10	7%	2.2	12.7%	13.4%	-0.8%	3.7%	6.95	5.79	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	2	66	312	52	37	10	7%	2.2	12.7%	13.4%	-0.8%	3.7%	6.95	5.79	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	2	66	312	52	37	10	7%	2.2	16.7%	11.9%	4.8%	3.2%	6.95	5.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	38	0	40	169	25	20	5	0%	1.1	15.0%	12.1%	2.9%	3.1%	5.47	5.47	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	57	0	60	254	43	28	8	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.1%	6.1%	3.1%	5.23	5.14	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	57	0	60	254	47	28	8	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.9%	7.5%	3.1%	5.07	5.01	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	25	0	26	110	19	12	3	0%	1.0	17.1%	11.1%	6.1%	3.1%	5.23	5.14	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	38	0	40	169	31	18	5	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.9%	7.5%	3.1%	5.07	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	0	66	277	50	30	9	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	3.1%	5.13	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	153	92	27	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	3.1%	5.13	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		40	9	108	487	64	58	14	22%	2.7	13.2%	11.9%	1.4%	3.0%	5.68	5.12	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	17	200	905	120	107	27	22%	2.7	13.2%	11.9%	1.4%	3.0%	5.68	5.12	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Downer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.47	15.0%	12.1%	3.1%	—	5.08	17.8%	6.8%	120	-0.39	—	—	—
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	87
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	84
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	84
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	84
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	84
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	84
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	83
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	83
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	83
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	82
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	82
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	82
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	82
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	82
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	82
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	81
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	81
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	81
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	17.1%	11.3%	1.20	5.23
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*