Adrian Belen

P ACL Royals

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	12	22	3.22	2.88	20.7%	6.9%	—	K 14.1% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.89
2025	20	ROKKC	14	32	3.69	3.95	29.9%	10.4%	—	K 20.3% · BB 13.1% · FIP 6.09
2026	21	MIX2 levels	29	50	5.62	5.07	24.9%	9.7%	—	K 17.1% · BB 11.9% · FIP 7.03
2027PROJ	22	MLBKC	24	25	5.12	5.12	19.1%	11.6%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBKC	22	23	4.91	4.83	20.5%	10.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBKC	31	33	4.74	4.65	21.3%	9.9%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMike Morrison (age 22) · Ismael Cabrera (age 22) · Jordan Mikel (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%19.1%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	12	0	22	87	18	6	1	0%	1.9	14.1%	8.6%	5.4%	1.6%	3.22	3.89	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	12	0	22	87	18	6	1	0%	1.9	14.1%	8.6%	5.4%	1.6%	3.22	3.89	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	12	0	22	87	18	6	1	0%	1.9	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	1.1%	3.22	2.88	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	14	0	32	134	40	14	5	0%	2.3	20.3%	13.1%	7.2%	5.6%	3.69	6.09	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	14	0	32	134	40	14	5	0%	2.3	20.3%	13.1%	7.2%	5.6%	3.69	6.09	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	14	0	32	134	40	14	5	0%	2.3	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	3.7%	3.69	3.95	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	50	217	54	21	11	0%	1.7	17.1%	11.9%	5.2%	7.1%	5.62	7.03	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	50	217	54	21	11	0%	1.7	17.1%	11.9%	5.2%	7.1%	5.62	7.03	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	50	217	54	21	11	0%	1.7	24.9%	9.7%	15.2%	5.1%	5.62	5.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	KC	24	0	25	106	20	12	3	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	3.2%	5.12	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	44	0	46	196	40	21	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.2%	4.91	4.83	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	KC	45	0	48	201	43	20	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.74	4.65	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	KC	46	0	48	204	44	19	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	3.1%	4.62	4.55	0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	KC	46	0	48	204	45	19	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.56	4.52	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	22	0	23	97	20	10	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.2%	4.91	4.83	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	KC	31	0	33	139	30	14	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.74	4.65	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	KC	37	0	39	165	36	16	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.5%	12.3%	3.1%	4.62	4.55	0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	KC	40	0	42	177	39	17	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.56	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		131	0	137	580	125	56	18	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.7%	11.8%	3.1%	4.68	4.23	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	82	26	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.7%	11.8%	3.1%	4.68	4.23	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		55	0	104	438	77	51	24	0%	1.9	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	5.5%	4.51	6.12	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	0	200	845	148	98	47	0%	1.9	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	5.5%	4.51	6.12	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Belen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	19.1%	11.6%	3.2%	—	4.67	21.2%	11.3%	142	-0.45	—	—	—
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	93
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	91
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	90
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	89
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	89
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Dawil Almonte R 2024 · 4.88 FIP	22	SU	4.88	17.9%	10.7%	3.5%	.267	4.31	12.6%	0.7%	58	-0.57	3.59	138	88
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	88
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	87
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	87
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	87
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	86
Anyelo Leclerc R 2015 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	16.2%	9.8%	3.7%	.326	4.65	15.9%	6.1%	96	-0.35	4.65	140	86
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	86
Jose Quezada R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	22	SU	5.31	18.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.219	3.86	22.2%	10.3%	121	-1.45	3.77	188	86
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	525	86
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	86
Juan Mercedes R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	22	SU	4.55	18.4%	11.2%	2.9%	.333	6.13	11.2%	-11.1%	12	+1.58	4.33	116	86
Brooks Wilson R 2018 · 5.17 FIP	22	SU	5.17	15.8%	10.3%	3.8%	.229	3.11	21.3%	12.5%	131	-2.06	2.92	194	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	43	21.2%	10.0%	1.22	4.75
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*