Adrian Belen — OGILVIE

Adrian Belen P ACL Royals

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%21.5%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	12	0	22	87	18	6	1	0%	1.9	14.1%	8.6%	5.4%	1.6%	3.22	3.89	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	12	0	22	87	18	6	1	0%	1.9	14.1%	8.6%	5.4%	1.6%	3.22	3.89	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	12	0	22	87	18	6	1	0%	1.9	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	1.1%	3.22	2.88	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	14	0	32	134	40	14	5	0%	2.3	20.3%	13.1%	7.2%	5.6%	3.69	6.09	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	14	0	32	134	40	14	5	0%	2.3	20.3%	13.1%	7.2%	5.6%	3.69	6.09	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	14	0	32	134	40	14	5	0%	2.3	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	3.7%	3.69	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	29	0	50	217	54	21	11	0%	1.7	17.1%	11.9%	5.2%	7.1%	5.62	7.03	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	29	0	50	217	54	21	11	0%	1.7	17.1%	11.9%	5.2%	7.1%	5.62	7.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	KC	19	0	35	152	46	15	10	0%	1.8	30.3%	9.9%	20.4%	6.6%	6.23	5.41	—
2026	21	A RAW	KC	10	0	15	65	8	6	1	0%	1.5	12.3%	9.2%	3.1%	1.5%	4.20	4.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	KC	49	0	51	215	49	22	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.0%	4.62	4.53	+0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	50	0	53	223	52	21	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	3.0%	4.45	4.35	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	KC	52	0	54	229	55	21	7	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.2%	14.8%	2.9%	4.32	4.23	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	KC	52	0	55	232	56	21	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	2.9%	4.23	4.16	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	KC	52	0	55	232	57	21	7	0%	1.1	24.5%	8.9%	15.6%	2.9%	4.18	4.14	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	KC	52	0	54	228	56	20	7	0%	1.0	24.5%	8.9%	15.5%	3.0%	4.18	4.18	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	KC	24	0	25	106	24	11	3	0%	1.0	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.0%	4.62	4.53	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	37	0	39	165	38	16	5	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	3.0%	4.45	4.35	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	KC	43	0	45	190	45	17	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.2%	14.8%	2.9%	4.32	4.23	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	KC	46	0	48	203	49	18	6	0%	1.0	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	2.9%	4.23	4.16	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	KC	48	0	50	211	52	19	6	0%	1.0	24.5%	8.9%	15.6%	2.9%	4.18	4.14	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	KC	48	0	50	211	52	19	6	0%	1.0	24.5%	8.9%	15.5%	3.0%	4.18	4.18	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		245	0	257	1086	261	100	32	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.2%	14.8%	2.9%	4.30	3.86	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	78	25	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.2%	14.8%	2.9%	4.30	3.86	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		55	0	104	438	77	51	24	0%	1.9	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	5.5%	4.51	6.12	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	0	200	845	148	98	47	0%	1.9	17.5%	11.6%	5.9%	5.5%	4.51	6.12	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Belen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	21.5%	11.4%	3.1%	—	4.37	23.3%	13.6%	158	-0.43	—	—	—
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	88
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	88
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	87
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	87
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	87
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	87
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	87
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	408	87
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	86
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	86
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	86
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	85
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	85
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	85
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	85
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	48	23.7%	9.4%	1.15	4.35
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41