Alex Madera

SS Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 L/R 5'10" / 179 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2030MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	25	AACHC	267	.303/.414/.348	0	15	92	—	.281/.357/.323
2026	25	A+CHC	135	.278/.385/.322	0	4	70	—	.240/.319/.273
2027PROJ2% MLB	26	MLBCHC	5	.219/.303/.276	0	0	67	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	27	MLBCHC	72	.219/.303/.280	0	2	68	-0.0
2029PROJ40% MLB	28	MLBCHC	127	.219/.302/.282	1	3	68	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Chase%98

Whiff%93

BB%90

Z-Con%87

wRC+76

wOBA68

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsIan Parmley (age 26) · Ender Chavez (age 26) · Jordan Cowan (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .303 / .276

PA5

HR0

K%20

BB%20

BABIP301

ISO59

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 28

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER28

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	25	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	267	221	67	8	1	0	42	58	0	15	3	303	414	348	763	45	404	22	16	351	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	135	115	32	3	1	0	20	28	0	4	2	278	385	322	707	43	368	21	15	332	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	267	235	66	8	1	0	28	71	0	15	3	281	357	323	681	43	382	27	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	135	121	29	2	1	0	14	36	0	4	2	240	319	273	591	33	339	27	10	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	402	356	94	10	2	0	42	106	0	19	5	264	342	303	645	39	372	26	10	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	402	336	99	11	2	0	62	86	0	19	5	295	405	339	744	45	391	21	15	344	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	402	357	94	10	2	0	42	106	0	19	5	263	342	303	644	39	368	26	10	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	402	357	94	10	2	0	42	106	0	19	5	263	342	303	644	39	368	26	10	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	2%	380	337	73	12	2	1	39	97	1	9	2	216	301	271	572	55	298	26	10	267	67	-15	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	2%	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	219	303	276	579	57	301	20	20	269	67	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	27%	269	238	52	9	1	1	28	68	1	6	2	217	301	275	577	59	297	25	10	268	68	-10	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	40%	319	282	60	10	1	1	33	81	1	7	2	217	300	278	578	61	296	25	10	268	68	-12	+1	-1	+3	+7	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	45%	344	305	65	11	1	2	35	88	1	7	2	216	299	278	577	63	295	26	10	268	67	-13	+1	-1	+4	+7	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	51%	359	319	68	12	1	2	36	93	1	6	2	215	296	278	574	63	293	26	10	266	66	-14	+0	-2	+4	+8	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	27%	72	65	13	2	0	0	7	18	0	2	0	219	303	280	583	61	300	25	10	271	68	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	40%	127	112	25	4	1	1	13	32	1	3	1	219	302	282	584	63	299	25	10	271	68	-5	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	45%	154	136	30	5	1	1	16	39	1	3	1	218	301	283	583	65	298	25	10	270	67	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	51%	183	162	35	6	1	1	18	47	1	3	1	217	298	282	580	65	296	26	10	268	66	-7	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	536	475	103	17	3	3	54	136	3	11	3	217	301	284	585	67	295	25	10	270	71	-21	+1	-2	+6	+12	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	126	21	4	4	65	165	4	13	4	219	302	290	592	71	297	25	10	270	71	-25	+1	-2	+7	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	1943	1721	387	60	7	7	200	500	5	51	15	225	307	280	587	55	310	26	10	273	71	-60	+2	-4	+17	+33	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	129	20	2	2	67	167	2	17	5	224	307	276	583	52	309	26	10	273	71	-25	+1	-2	+7	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
/162	664	3	3	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	2.7	1,763	7	55	223*	283*	300*	+10	+9	-0.2	1.3
/162	664	3	21	+3.8	+3.5	-0.1	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.8	542	2	11	217	296	279	+6	+6	0.0	0.0
/162	664	3	13	+7.1	+7.4	0.0	pk7: 0
#5David Howard'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	11	23	220*	280*	301*	+10	+23	-1.6	-0.8
/162	664	4	9	+3.7	+8.5	-0.6	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Madera (OGILVIE)	26	42	28	56	58	214/299/269	54	298	1	6	25%	10%	67	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ian Parmley 2016 · AA	26	43	35→30	51→50	46	204/264/258	53	274	3	13	25%	8%	49	-2.4	231/273/296	65	327	3	15	28%	5%	61	-1.5	244/278/304	60	346	2	17	29%	4%	61	-0.6
✕Ender Chavez 2007 · AA	26	49→48	35→30	48→55	49	227/290/284	57	287	3	16	21%	8%	65	-1.2	231/306/302	71	292	4	14	20%	9%	76	-0.4	249/347/297	48	305	0	14	16%	11%	90	+0.1
✕Jordan Cowan 2021 · AA	26	50→51	36→30	50	47	233/291/293	60	293	4	13	21%	7%	68	-1.0	220/286/302	82	289	6	16	24%	8%	68	-1.0	212/283/286	74	280	4	18	24%	8%	60	-0.7
✕Evan Marzilli 2017 · AAA	26	42→46	37→40	49→50	46	199/276/277	79	285	3	14	29%	9%	59	-1.6	202/280/288	86	296	6	13	31%	9%	63	-1.3	203/282/290	87	286	6	14	29%	9%	62	-0.8
✕Jake Palomaki 2022 · AA	27	43	35→30	50	49	200/276/259	59	260	2	18	22%	8%	55	-1.9	241/305/313	72	306	4	14	21%	8%	78	-0.3	273/335/326	53	340	2	14	19%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Mickey McDonald 2021 · AA	26	44→53	35→30	51→50	41	205/262/262	57	299	2	14	31%	7%	50	-2.3	234/305/309	75	324	4	17	27%	8%	77	-0.3	242/317/312	69	332	3	19	26%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Adam Heisler 2014 · AAA	26	44→45	38→40	55	46	211/274/297	86	279	5	20	25%	7%	63	-1.4	222/279/323	101	290	7	15	24%	7%	70	-0.8	236/279/354	118	289	6	17	20%	5%	72	-0.2
✕Stephen Gaylor 2017 · AA	25	48	34→30	49→55	43	225/276/274	49	292	2	18	23%	6%	57	-1.8	216/268/284	68	288	4	15	25%	6%	57	-1.8	202/252/252	49	269	0	18	23%	5%	40	-0.9
✕Ryan Walker 2018 · AA	26	47→52	36→40	51→50	46	221/281/291	70	292	3	13	24%	7%	63	-1.3	213/275/303	90	272	8	11	23%	7%	65	-1.2	187/248/253	66	226	9	9	21%	7%	40	-1.0
✕Stephen Perez 2017 · AA	26	44→48	36→30	51→50	48	209/274/276	68	269	4	14	23%	8%	58	-1.7	204/273/273	69	282	5	13	27%	8%	57	-1.8	184/258/232	48	263	4	14	29%	8%	42	-1.1
✕Patrick Biondi 2017 · A	26	49→44	36→30	54→60	44	229/284/295	65	306	3	24	25%	6%	65	-1.2	221/285/275	54	304	3	28	26%	7%	61	-1.5	214/283/243	30	294	1	38	25%	8%	51	-1.0
✕Alfredo Lopez 2016 · AA	26	46	36→30	48→50	47	218/275/285	68	272	3	14	20%	7%	60	-1.6	239/283/307	68	287	4	16	17%	6%	68	-1.0	260/297/304	44	305	1	19	15%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Brett Vertigan 2017 · AA	26	47→53	36→40	53→50	45	222/274/288	65	286	3	15	22%	6%	59	-1.6	213/273/282	69	288	2	12	25%	7%	59	-1.7	207/274/271	64	282	1	11	25%	8%	54	-1.2
✕Danny Black 2015 · AAA	26	43→50	37→40	53→55	45	204/265/278	74	277	4	12	27%	7%	55	-2.0	209/275/300	91	291	6	11	28%	8%	64	-1.3	191/268/261	71	283	0	8	30%	10%	49	-0.5
✕Forrestt Allday 2017 · AAA	26	49→47	36→30	43→50	49	227/301/290	62	291	3	11	22%	8%	72	-0.7	232/307/292	60	287	3	12	19%	8%	75	-0.5	231/312/281	50	286	3	12	18%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Ethan Chapman 2015 · AA	25	47	34→30	48→55	45	221/273/269	48	292	2	18	24%	6%	55	-2.0	219/272/286	67	300	5	16	27%	6%	59	-1.6	230/283/297	67	321	7	29	29%	5%	68	-0.6
✕Kobe Kato 2024 · A	25	46	37→40	52→55	51	214/292/293	79	277	4	20	23%	9%	69	-0.9	207/285/301	94	302	7	23	31%	9%	69	-0.9	182/271/278	96	281	8	32	35%	10%	56	-0.5
✕Stephen Wickens 2015 · AA	26	47→45	37→40	50→55	47	220/283/292	72	271	4	15	20%	6%	65	-1.2	219/280/302	83	277	6	17	22%	7%	66	-1.1	228/295/295	67	281	1	23	18%	7%	67	-0.6
✕J.D. Orr 2022 · AA	25	51	36→30	54→65	47	235/294/310	75	312	3	24	24%	8%	72	-0.7	214/294/279	65	295	3	37	26%	9%	67	-1.1	199/291/245	46	277	1	51	25%	10%	56	-0.8
✕Kennard Jones 2008 · AAA	26	47→57	36→30	47→50	46	221/283/286	65	300	3	16	26%	8%	63	-1.4	224/279/310	86	288	6	15	23%	7%	67	-1.1	243/289/324	80	289	3	17	16%	6%	74	-0.2

Alex Madera

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps