Ryan Smith — OGILVIE

Ryan Smith P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 67 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152144vR 136

ERA6.28

FIP6.28

K%16.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-3.9%

ROS IP67

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2020

CMD2525

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	34	0	55	256	56	41	5	0%	1.6	16.2%	18.9%	-2.7%	2.5%	3.13	5.51	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	34	0	55	256	56	41	5	0%	1.6	16.2%	18.9%	-2.7%	2.5%	3.13	5.51	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	34	0	55	256	56	41	5	0%	1.6	21.9%	16.0%	5.9%	2.0%	3.13	4.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	64	0	67	283	45	57	8	0%	1.0	16.1%	20.0%	-3.9%	3.0%	6.28	6.28	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	65	0	68	287	50	51	8	0%	1.0	17.4%	17.6%	-0.2%	3.0%	5.95	5.86	-1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	65	0	68	287	52	49	8	0%	1.0	18.1%	16.9%	1.2%	3.0%	5.77	5.72	-0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	64	0	67	283	52	47	9	0%	1.0	18.3%	16.6%	1.7%	3.0%	5.69	5.69	-0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	274	50	45	9	0%	1.0	18.3%	16.6%	1.8%	3.1%	5.71	5.74	-0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	28	0	29	122	21	22	4	0%	1.0	17.4%	17.6%	-0.2%	3.0%	5.95	5.86	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	43	0	45	190	34	32	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	16.9%	1.2%	3.0%	5.77	5.72	-0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	50	0	52	220	40	36	7	0%	1.0	18.3%	16.6%	1.7%	3.0%	5.69	5.69	-0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	52	0	55	232	43	38	7	0%	1.1	18.3%	16.6%	1.8%	3.1%	5.71	5.74	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	762	138	128	23	0%	1.0	18.1%	16.8%	1.3%	3.0%	5.76	5.36	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	153	142	25	0%	1.1	18.1%	16.8%	1.3%	3.0%	5.76	5.36	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		34	0	55	256	41	48	6	0%	1.6	16.2%	18.9%	-2.7%	2.5%	3.13	5.51	-3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	0	200	937	152	177	24	0%	1.6	16.2%	18.9%	-2.7%	2.5%	3.13	5.51	-2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.28	16.1%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.76	17.9%	0.9%	203	-0.52	—	—	—
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	89
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	88
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	87
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	84
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	84
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	84
Kelvin Vasquez R 2017 · 6.26 FIP	24	SU	6.26	15.0%	23.2%	2.7%	.247	5.06	14.5%	-0.2%	48	-1.20	5.01	180	83
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	83
Jairo Beras R 2019 · 5.47 FIP	24	SU	5.47	15.0%	20.3%	1.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	110	83
Leandro Linares R 2018 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	16.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	1.93	134	83
Austin Pettibone R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	23	SU	5.11	14.6%	16.2%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	142	82
Austin Glorius R 2017 · 6.09 FIP	24	SU	6.09	18.7%	21.0%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	141	82
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	82
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	82
Chay Yeager R 2024 · 5.60 FIP	21	SU	5.60	13.1%	15.7%	2.9%	.261	4.20	22.8%	12.5%	56	-1.40	4.20	110	81
Jake Gozzo R 2021 · 7.10 FIP	24	SU	7.10	14.3%	30.2%	2.5%	.200	5.35	15.8%	-0.7%	129	-1.75	4.32	162	81
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	80
Roman Phansalkar R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	24	SU	6.38	13.5%	18.4%	3.8%	.245	4.77	17.4%	4.0%	147	-1.61	4.33	164	80
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	80
Abel Brito R 2024 · 6.24 FIP	23	SU	6.24	14.0%	23.6%	2.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	147	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	17.6%	17.5%	1.16	5.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68