Nolan McCarthy — OGILVIE

Nolan McCarthyOF West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 196 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION109 act + 211 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .297 / .323

PA211

HR4

SB9

K%31

BB%10

BABIP297

ISO113

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	A+	DET	—	109	92	19	3	0	3	15	35	1	10	0	207	324	337	661	130	291	32	14	300	87	-2	+2	+0	-1	+3	0.3
YTD	24	A+	DET	—	109	86	23	4	0	4	21	25	1	10	0	267	417	453	870	186	328	23	19	389	156	+7	+2	+0	-1	+3	1.2
ROS	24	A+	DET	0%	211	186	39	7	1	4	21	65	2	9	1	210	297	323	619	113	291	31	10	281	73	-6	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.0
ROS	24	MLB	DET	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						286	0	0	270	65	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	A+	DET	—	110	93	19	3	0	3	15	35	1	10	0	204	321	333	654	129	286	32	14	299	87	-2	+2	+0	-1	+3	0.3
TOT	24	A+	DET	—	320	278	58	10	1	7	36	100	3	19	1	209	306	327	633	119	295	31	11	287	78	-8	+3	+0	-2	+9	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	DET	30%	365	323	68	12	1	8	36	109	3	11	1	211	296	328	624	118	293	30	10	287	78	-9	+2	+0	-2	+10	0.1
2028	26	MLB	DET	44%	457	405	88	16	2	10	45	134	4	14	1	217	302	341	643	123	293	29	10	290	80	-10	+2	+0	-3	+13	0.3
2029	27	MLB	DET	49%	512	451	99	18	2	12	51	149	5	16	2	220	306	348	654	129	293	29	10	292	82	-11	+2	+0	-3	+15	0.3
2030	28	MLB	DET	52%	543	479	104	19	2	12	54	158	5	16	2	217	303	340	643	123	292	29	10	292	82	-11	+2	-1	-3	+15	0.3
2031	29	MLB	DET	51%	557	491	105	19	2	12	56	163	5	15	2	214	301	334	635	120	291	29	10	290	80	-13	+2	-1	-3	+16	0.1
2027	25	MLB	DET	30%	111	98	20	4	0	2	11	33	1	3	0	204	291	306	597	102	288	30	10	276	69	-4	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	DET	44%	202	178	38	7	1	4	20	59	2	6	1	213	300	331	631	118	288	29	10	279	72	-6	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.1
2029	27	MLB	DET	49%	251	222	46	8	1	5	25	73	2	8	1	207	293	320	613	113	288	29	10	281	73	-8	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.1
2030	28	MLB	DET	52%	280	247	52	9	1	6	28	81	3	8	1	211	299	328	626	117	287	29	10	280	73	-9	+1	-0	-2	+8	-0.2
2031	29	MLB	DET	51%	287	253	53	9	1	6	29	84	3	8	1	209	298	324	622	115	286	29	10	279	71	-9	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1132	999	209	37	4	23	113	330	11	33	4	209	297	323	620	114	286	29	10	279	72	-36	+5	-1	-7	+32	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	119	21	2	13	65	189	6	19	2	207	295	319	613	111	283	29	10	279	72	-21	+3	-1	-4	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	2645	2335	503	91	10	58	263	778	24	81	9	215	301	337	639	122	294	29	10	290	80	-60	+13	-2	-16	+75	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	123	22	2	14	65	191	6	20	2	214	301	333	634	118	293	29	10	290	80	-15	+3	-1	-4	+18	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,132	25	34	217	299	341	-7	+0	0.5	0.5
	/162	664	15	20	217	299	341	-4.0	+0.0	0.3	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nolan McCarthy (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	209/306/327	119	295	7	19	31%	11%	78	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Rathjen 2014 · A	24	44→41	42→50	51→50	47	214/288/323	109	274	9	17	24%	8%	72	-0.2	210/270/352	142	276	16	11	29%	7%	72	-0.2	199/257/359	161	255	21	7	31%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Alerick Soularie 2023 · A	24	39	44→45	53→60	44	192/275/311	119	295	12	16	36%	9%	64	-0.8	197/281/310	113	291	12	26	34%	9%	66	-0.6	177/270/280	103	254	13	39	33%	10%	53	-0.5
✕Barrett Barnes 2015 · A	24	42→48	44→45	51→50	42	210/273/325	116	283	12	14	30%	7%	66	-0.6	223/289/345	122	293	11	12	26%	7%	77	+0.1	215/293/346	131	300	13	7	30%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	43→42	43→50	51→55	47	212/285/327	114	283	10	10	27%	8%	71	-0.3	202/288/323	121	269	12	14	28%	10%	72	-0.2	197/277/356	159	247	21	23	29%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Jhonny Santos 2021 · A	24	43	44→50	50	42	214/274/332	117	291	11	16	30%	7%	67	-0.5	213/263/380	167	277	22	6	31%	6%	76	+0.1	189/238/374	185	227	28	1	31%	6%	61	-0.6
✕Dwanya Williams-Sutton 2021 · A	24	41	41→45	50	45	190/309/282	92	303	8	10	35%	10%	72	-0.2	207/308/334	127	335	14	13	39%	9%	85	+0.7	165/295/298	133	275	17	18	41%	11%	70	-0.1
✕Kyle Datres 2021 · A	25	39→40	45→50	51→55	41	198/264/325	127	271	12	15	31%	6%	62	-0.9	206/284/345	139	284	16	22	32%	8%	76	+0.1	198/283/340	141	269	18	27	32%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→37	43→60	54→50	48	193/272/304	111	262	10	14	29%	9%	60	-1.0	191/270/313	122	269	12	13	31%	9%	62	-0.9	207/269/398	192	270	24	15	32%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Kyle Gaedele 2014 · A	24	44→43	42→45	55→50	42	210/274/325	116	302	9	17	32%	7%	66	-0.6	200/268/341	141	320	15	12	40%	8%	68	-0.5	176/260/344	168	320	21	7	48%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Quincy Hamilton 2022 · A	24	46→44	40→50	51→50	46	220/295/307	87	301	7	15	28%	8%	70	-0.3	219/300/362	143	286	16	14	28%	9%	87	+0.8	207/292/361	154	264	18	14	28%	9%	80	+0.3
✕Preston Scott 2018 · A	24	45	45→50	49→50	42	220/287/349	129	295	11	10	28%	6%	78	+0.2	203/259/304	101	314	8	9	36%	5%	54	-1.4	179/229/263	84	296	6	8	39%	4%	27	-2.0
✕Cody Cipriano 2009 · A	24	40→48	45	55→45	46	199/274/329	130	265	11	12	28%	8%	67	-0.5	219/289/330	111	313	8	8	30%	8%	73	-0.1	224/298/330	106	321	7	7	30%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	45	223/293/342	119	282	12	16	24%	7%	79	+0.3	210/268/294	84	282	6	12	26%	6%	55	-1.4	194/247/254	61	264	3	10	27%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Chris Meyers 2023 · A	24	42→44	44→55	51→45	42	209/269/330	121	281	12	9	29%	7%	65	-0.7	226/282/380	154	300	19	5	30%	6%	84	+0.6	223/282/380	157	291	20	3	30%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Brandon Lockridge 2021 · A	24	40→50	44→50	50→65	36	200/251/322	121	295	11	12	35%	5%	55	-1.4	227/276/357	130	327	14	22	33%	6%	75	-0.0	251/318/335	84	356	3	53	28%	8%	83	+0.3
✕Stefan Trosclair 2018 · A	24	43→42	47→50	50	45	217/293/356	139	283	15	9	28%	8%	82	+0.5	218/282/357	139	301	15	7	31%	6%	78	+0.2	208/270/353	144	290	16	4	32%	5%	69	-0.3
✕Luis Santana 2023 · A	24	43	44→45	48→50	43	215/283/333	118	286	12	11	28%	7%	72	-0.2	206/263/326	120	268	13	7	28%	5%	62	-0.9	190/242/307	117	240	15	5	27%	4%	45	-1.1
✕Jared Oliva 2019 · A	23	46→45	42→50	56→65	43	219/288/328	109	304	8	24	29%	7%	72	-0.2	218/277/322	104	307	8	25	30%	6%	66	-0.6	227/296/370	142	284	15	55	24%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Devin Shines 2013 · A	24	42	44→50	50	37	211/263/328	117	296	12	11	32%	5%	62	-0.9	198/251/296	98	285	9	9	32%	6%	48	-1.9	155/208/229	74	220	6	7	31%	6%	11	-1.5
✕Colin Davis 2023 · A	24	40	43→50	49→50	42	200/260/311	111	272	11	11	30%	7%	56	-1.3	186/247/306	120	255	14	11	32%	6%	50	-1.8	144/217/244	100	209	14	11	37%	6%	19	-1.1