Ryan Andrade

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ATB	23	23	119	2.87	3.32	18.3%	9.6%	—	K 13.6% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.01
2026	23	A+TB	33	0	40	7.59	5.90	22.5%	12.0%	—	K 17.3% · BB 13.8% · FIP 6.98
2027PROJ	24	MLBTB	54	0	57	5.92	5.92	13.7%	14.4%	-0.8
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTB	45	0	47	5.66	5.60	15.6%	13.2%	-0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBTB	69	0	72	5.49	5.44	16.6%	12.7%	-0.7

Next 3 projected WAR -2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control40Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsVictor Santos (age 24) · Wirkin Estevez (age 24) · Cooper Adams (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 129

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%13.7%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%-0.7%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	119	491	90	47	5	100%	5.2	13.6%	11.3%	2.3%	1.1%	2.87	4.01	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	119	491	90	47	5	100%	5.2	13.6%	11.3%	2.3%	1.1%	2.87	4.01	—
2025	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	23	23	119	491	90	47	5	100%	5.2	18.3%	9.6%	8.8%	1.0%	2.87	3.32	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	33	0	40	191	43	23	10	0%	1.2	17.3%	13.8%	3.5%	6.5%	7.59	6.98	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	33	0	40	191	43	23	10	0%	1.2	17.3%	13.8%	3.5%	6.5%	7.59	6.98	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	33	0	40	191	43	23	10	0%	1.2	22.5%	12.0%	10.5%	5.2%	7.59	5.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TB	54	0	57	241	33	35	8	0%	1.1	13.7%	14.4%	-0.7%	3.2%	5.92	5.92	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	103	0	108	458	71	60	15	0%	1.1	15.6%	13.2%	2.4%	3.2%	5.66	5.60	-1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	103	0	108	458	76	58	15	0%	1.1	16.6%	12.7%	3.9%	3.2%	5.49	5.44	-1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	102	0	107	451	76	57	15	0%	1.0	16.9%	12.6%	4.3%	3.2%	5.43	5.42	-1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	TB	99	0	104	437	74	55	15	0%	1.0	16.9%	12.6%	4.3%	3.3%	5.45	5.48	-1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	TB	94	0	99	418	69	53	15	0%	1.1	16.6%	12.8%	3.8%	3.5%	5.54	5.61	-1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	TB	89	0	93	393	64	51	14	0%	1.0	16.3%	13.1%	3.2%	3.7%	5.69	5.78	-1.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	45	0	47	198	31	26	6	0%	1.0	15.6%	13.2%	2.4%	3.2%	5.66	5.60	-0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	69	0	72	304	50	39	10	0%	1.0	16.6%	12.7%	3.9%	3.2%	5.49	5.44	-0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	79	0	83	350	59	44	11	0%	1.1	16.9%	12.6%	4.3%	3.2%	5.43	5.42	-0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	TB	83	0	87	367	62	46	12	0%	1.0	16.9%	12.6%	4.3%	3.3%	5.45	5.48	-0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	TB	83	0	87	367	61	47	13	0%	1.0	16.6%	12.8%	3.8%	3.5%	5.54	5.61	-1.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	TB	80	0	84	355	58	46	13	0%	1.1	16.3%	13.1%	3.2%	3.7%	5.69	5.78	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		437	0	459	1936	320	248	65	0%	1.0	16.5%	12.8%	3.7%	3.4%	5.53	5.17	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	108	28	0%	1.1	16.5%	12.8%	3.7%	3.4%	5.53	5.17	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		56	23	159	682	100	82	18	41%	2.8	14.6%	12.0%	2.6%	2.7%	4.07	4.84	-7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	29	200	856	125	103	23	41%	2.8	14.6%	12.0%	2.6%	2.7%	4.07	4.84	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Andrade (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	13.7%	14.4%	3.2%	—	5.49	16.3%	3.5%	324	-0.43	—	—	—
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	86
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	86
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	84
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	83
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	81
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	81
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	80
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	80
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	80
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	79
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	78
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	78
Corey Avant R 2024 · 4.76 FIP	22	SW	4.76	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	.394	4.57	19.9%	6.4%	221	-0.19	3.69	292	78
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	78
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	78
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	77
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	77
Daniel Concepcion R 2016 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	13.0%	10.6%	4.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	110	77
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	77
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	97	16.2%	13.0%	1.29	5.57
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Charlie Bishop ('52-'55, -1 WAR*)	1.5	98	16.9%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.49*
Paul Abbott ('04)	3.6	80	15.6%	12.3%	1.26	4.92
Mike Kekich ('65-'77, -7 WAR*)	4.3	108	17.8%*	11.4%*	1.17*	5.83*
Rube Fischer ('41-'46, -4 WAR*)	1.9	96	18.0%*	12.5%*	1.14*	6.04*