Joshua Francis — OGILVIE

Joshua Francis2B ACL Mariners

Age 19 S/R 5'11" / 155 lbs ROK K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION126 act + 12 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .250 / .182

PA12

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP289

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$12M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	67	53	9	1	1	0	13	21	1	2	1	170	343	226	570	57	281	31	19	284	78	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	156	136	37	4	3	1	15	20	4	10	0	272	361	368	729	96	310	13	10	331	110	+2	+2	—	—	+3	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	67	57	7	1	1	0	9	30	1	2	1	123	254	175	429	53	232	45	13	191	15	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	156	142	31	3	2	1	9	29	4	10	0	218	284	289	573	70	259	19	6	253	57	-8	+2	—	—	+3	-0.3
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	67	57	7	1	1	0	9	30	1	2	1	123	254	175	429	53	259	45	13	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	67	53	9	1	1	0	13	21	1	2	1	170	343	226	570	57	281	31	19	284	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	156	142	31	3	2	1	9	29	4	10	0	218	284	289	573	70	265	19	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	156	136	37	4	3	1	15	20	4	10	0	272	361	368	729	96	310	13	10	331	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	67	57	7	1	1	0	9	30	1	2	1	123	254	175	429	53	232	45	13	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	156	142	31	3	2	1	9	29	4	10	0	218	284	289	573	70	259	19	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	67	57	7	1	1	0	9	30	1	2	1	123	254	175	429	53	232	45	13	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	156	142	31	3	2	1	9	29	4	10	0	218	284	289	573	70	259	19	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	SEA	—	126	109	20	2	2	1	9	53	5	11	2	183	276	266	542	83	345	42	7	229	41	-9	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	SEA	—	126	103	27	3	3	1	14	37	5	11	2	262	374	379	753	117	400	29	11	336	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	SEA	0%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	182	250	182	432		291	33	8	249	55	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	SEA	—	138	120	22	2	2	1	10	57	5	11	2	183	274	258	532	75	339	41	7	231	42	-9	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SEA	34%	216	195	40	6	2	3	15	67	4	5	1	205	276	303	578	97	292	31	7	260	62	-10	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.4
2028	21	MLB MLE	SEA	48%	345	311	64	10	3	5	25	105	6	8	2	206	278	305	583	100	293	30	7	269	68	-13	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	SEA	54%	438	395	83	13	4	7	32	130	8	10	2	210	283	316	599	106	294	30	7	275	72	-14	+1	+0	+2	+9	-0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	SEA	57%	500	450	97	15	5	9	37	147	9	11	2	216	288	331	619	116	295	29	7	279	75	-15	+1	+0	+2	+11	-0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	SEA	57%	541	487	106	17	5	10	40	159	9	12	2	218	289	335	624	117	295	29	7	281	76	-15	+2	+0	+2	+12	-0.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	SEA	57%	564	507	110	17	5	11	42	165	10	12	2	217	290	335	625	118	295	29	7	282	77	-15	+2	+0	+2	+12	0.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	SEA	56%	577	519	112	18	5	11	43	169	10	13	3	216	288	333	622	118	295	29	7	282	77	-16	+1	+0	+2	+13	0.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	SEA	60%	580	521	113	18	5	11	44	170	10	13	3	217	290	334	624	117	295	29	8	282	77	-16	+1	+0	+2	+13	0.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	SEA	62%	577	518	112	18	5	11	44	170	10	12	2	216	290	334	624	118	295	29	8	281	77	-16	+2	-1	+2	+13	-0.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	SEA	63%	569	510	109	17	5	11	44	169	10	12	2	214	289	331	620	118	294	30	8	279	75	-17	+2	-1	+2	+12	-0.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	SEA	63%	559	501	106	16	5	10	43	167	10	11	2	212	287	323	610	112	292	30	8	277	73	-18	+1	-2	+2	+12	-0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	SEA	34%	74	68	14	2	1	1	5	23	1	2	0	206	270	309	579	103	290	31	7	245	62	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	SEA	48%	167	150	31	5	2	2	12	51	3	4	1	207	279	307	585	100	291	31	7	254	68	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	SEA	54%	238	215	45	7	2	4	17	71	4	5	1	209	280	316	596	107	291	30	7	260	72	-8	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	SEA	57%	283	255	55	9	3	5	21	83	5	6	1	216	288	333	622	118	292	29	7	264	75	-8	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	SEA	57%	306	275	59	9	3	6	23	90	5	7	1	215	287	335	622	120	293	29	8	266	76	-9	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	SEA	57%	319	286	62	10	3	6	24	93	6	7	1	217	291	336	627	119	293	29	8	267	77	-9	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	SEA	56%	326	293	63	10	3	6	24	95	6	7	1	215	288	331	619	116	293	29	7	267	77	-9	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	SEA	60%	347	312	66	10	3	6	26	102	6	8	2	212	285	321	605	109	293	29	7	267	77	-9	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.0
2035	28	MLB CTX	SEA	62%	356	320	69	11	3	7	27	105	6	8	2	216	289	334	623	119	292	29	8	266	77	-10	+1	-0	+1	+8	-0.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	SEA	63%	357	320	67	10	3	6	28	106	6	7	1	209	285	316	601	106	291	30	8	264	75	-11	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	SEA	63%	355	319	66	10	3	6	27	106	6	7	1	207	281	313	595	107	290	30	8	262	73	-11	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3128	2813	597	93	29	55	234	925	54	68	12	212	285	325	610	112	293	30	7	264	73	-93	+9	-3	+11	+68	-0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	123	19	6	11	49	192	11	14	2	210	284	320	604	109	290	30	8	264	73	-19	+2	-1	+2	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5701	5124	1092	169	52	100	428	1681	101	131	24	213	287	325	612	112	294	29	8	277	73	-166	+15	-4	+20	+119	-1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	124	19	6	11	49	192	12	15	3	212	287	322	609	110	294	30	8	277	73	-20	+2	-0	+2	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.9	3,257	58	70	215	284	329	+12	+7	0.9	1.1
/162	664	12	14	+2.4	+1.4	0.2	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joshua Francis (OGILVIE)	19	45	25	55	35	194/264/274	80	291	1	5	32%	7%	55	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→45	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	55	-2.0	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	223/334/268	45	305	1	34	23%	14%	77	-0.2
✕Emmanuel Morel 2015 · A	18	42	36→30	51→55	41	199/261/262	63	278	3	9	28%	6%	50	-2.3	192/267/250	58	298	2	16	33%	9%	50	-2.3	173/256/219	46	280	0	22	34%	9%	37	-0.9
✕Diego Velasquez 2023 · A	19	42→52	34→40	50	44	199/256/250	51	261	2	7	24%	6%	45	-2.7	234/298/318	84	300	6	14	22%	7%	77	-0.3	245/313/315	70	311	3	18	20%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Ismael Dionicio 2010 · A	19	41	36→30	48→55	41	189/254/254	65	292	2	12	34%	7%	46	-2.6	212/265/261	49	292	1	16	26%	6%	51	-2.3	243/295/288	46	321	0	23	23%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Juan Mosquera 2007 · A	19	38	35→30	49→55	44	180/246/238	57	263	3	15	31%	8%	38	-3.2	201/290/246	45	281	1	14	26%	10%	58	-1.7	210/308/237	27	280	0	17	22%	11%	61	-0.5
✕Fidel Mejia 2018 · A	19	45	34→30	45→40	42	208/258/264	56	283	1	9	26%	6%	49	-2.4	214/261/282	68	298	4	4	28%	6%	54	-2.0	215/260/277	61	298	4	2	28%	5%	49	-0.9
✕Luis Barahona 2013 · A	19	40	35→30	53→50	43	190/243/255	65	258	1	13	26%	6%	41	-3.0	217/273/280	63	297	2	12	26%	7%	58	-1.7	233/290/282	49	313	0	17	24%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Reivaj Garcia 2021 · A	19	45→55	35→30	49→50	41	211/254/274	63	276	2	8	24%	5%	49	-2.4	207/250/279	72	308	5	9	32%	5%	49	-2.4	246/281/304	58	312	2	12	21%	4%	64	-0.9
✕Jilbert Rosario 2014 · A	19	46	36→30	52→55	46	216/291/285	69	292	3	15	25%	8%	67	-1.1	221/290/273	52	289	2	19	22%	8%	63	-1.4	225/295/260	35	292	0	25	21%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Francisco Aponte 2009 · A	18	43	36→30	49→60	46	205/268/268	64	265	4	9	23%	7%	54	-2.0	230/305/289	59	291	2	17	20%	8%	73	-0.6	224/288/270	46	274	0	22	17%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Gabriel Maciel 2018 · A	19	49→52	36→30	47→55	43	232/276/296	64	295	4	13	22%	6%	62	-1.4	233/286/296	63	302	3	14	22%	6%	66	-1.1	217/280/282	64	280	3	19	22%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	53	-2.1	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	71	-0.8	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Jorky Infante 2010 · A	19	41	37→30	51→50	43	198/254/268	70	273	4	9	28%	7%	49	-2.4	205/265/260	55	256	3	12	20%	7%	51	-2.3	201/262/238	38	245	2	14	18%	7%	43	-0.9
✕Bengie González 2009 · A	19	41→51	34→40	51→50	47	194/264/244	51	272	2	11	28%	8%	47	-2.5	207/258/252	45	280	1	12	25%	6%	46	-2.6	255/307/351	95	309	4	12	18%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Hancer Vargas 2008 · A	19	46	33→30	46→50	44	217/264/255	38	274	2	11	21%	6%	48	-2.5	209/256/264	55	271	3	11	22%	5%	48	-2.5	198/239/231	32	242	0	15	17%	4%	32	-0.9
✕Dervy Ventura 2023 · A	19	43→50	36→40	50→55	48	201/279/276	75	282	2	6	28%	9%	60	-1.6	217/294/306	89	287	6	14	24%	9%	73	-0.6	220/305/307	86	295	7	22	25%	10%	74	-0.3
✕Cole Tucker 2015 · A	19	44→47	37→45	50→55	45	209/273/283	74	281	5	13	26%	7%	59	-1.6	226/271/302	76	301	4	18	24%	6%	61	-1.5	209/274/322	113	274	9	12	26%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2017 · A	19	36→45	35→40	51→50	36	176/222/238	62	270	2	9	34%	5%	29	-3.8	196/257/273	77	270	5	9	27%	7%	51	-2.3	199/285/288	89	292	7	15	31%	10%	63	-0.8
✕Anderson Feliz 2011 · A	19	41→51	40	51→50	39	199/247/293	95	284	7	12	32%	6%	51	-2.2	197/254/284	87	304	5	12	34%	7%	52	-2.2	203/265/289	86	328	5	16	37%	8%	55	-0.5
✕Robert Garcia 2014 · A	20	46	36→30	51→60	42	212/280/275	63	313	3	14	31%	7%	60	-1.6	235/293/305	70	313	4	20	25%	5%	72	-0.7	227/277/280	53	331	3	22	31%	4%	57	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps