Adrian Santana — OGILVIE

Adrian SantanaSS Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 21 S/R 5'11" / 155 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION213 act + 142 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .298 / .318

PA142

HR1

SB10

K%15

BB%6

BABIP291

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED70

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+2.3	$14M	+$11M
2031	Arb-2	$8M	+2.4	$13M	+$8M
2032	Arb-3	$12M	+2.4	$12M	+$6M
Totals		$27M		$70M	+$54M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	5	13	1	3	0	146	255	171	426	24	214	28	11	205	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	39	8	2	0	0	7	9	1	3	0	205	340	256	597	51	267	19	15	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	431	77	16	2	0	20	105	2	51	9	179	219	225	444	46	235	23	4	198	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	417	100	21	3	0	34	72	2	51	9	240	300	305	605	65	289	16	7	276	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	375	87	10	2	2	25	63	1	47	8	232	282	285	567	53	268	15	6	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	365	96	13	2	2	35	49	1	47	8	263	329	326	655	63	293	12	9	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A+	TB	—	213	195	55	4	1	2	12	29	4	21	5	282	336	344	680	62	321	14	6	305	92	-2	+2	+0	+2	+6	0.9
YTD	21	A+	TB	—	213	188	58	5	1	3	18	22	4	21	5	309	379	394	773	85	335	10	8	348	124	+6	+2	+0	+2	+6	1.7
ROS	21	A+	TB	0%	142	132	33	4	1	1	8	22	1	10	2	250	298	318	616	68	286	15	6	270	65	-6	+1	+1	+2	+4	0.2
ROS	21	MLB	TB	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						290	0	0	266	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	21	A+	TB	—	214	196	55	4	1	2	12	29	4	21	5	281	335	342	677	61	319	14	6	305	91	-2	+2	+0	+2	+6	0.9
TOT	21	A+	TB	—	355	327	88	8	2	3	20	51	5	31	7	269	321	333	654	64	309	14	6	291	81	-8	+3	+1	+4	+10	1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	TB	35%	476	442	108	14	2	4	27	75	4	24	5	244	294	312	606	68	285	16	6	278	71	-16	+3	+4	+5	+13	1.0
2028	23	MLB	TB	49%	520	479	120	16	3	7	32	82	4	24	5	251	303	340	643	90	286	16	6	290	80	-12	+3	+4	+6	+15	1.6
2029	24	MLB	TB	53%	554	509	129	17	3	9	35	88	5	24	5	253	308	352	660	98	288	16	6	297	86	-9	+3	+4	+6	+16	2.0
2030	25	MLB	TB	55%	574	527	135	18	3	11	37	91	5	23	5	256	311	364	675	108	288	16	6	301	89	-7	+3	+5	+6	+16	2.3
2031	26	MLB	TB	56%	583	535	137	19	3	11	38	92	5	22	5	256	311	364	676	108	288	16	7	303	90	-7	+2	+5	+6	+17	2.4
2032	27	MLB	TB	55%	585	536	136	18	3	11	39	93	5	21	4	254	310	360	670	106	288	16	7	303	90	-7	+3	+5	+6	+17	2.4
2033	28	MLB	TB	55%	581	532	135	18	3	11	39	93	5	20	4	254	311	361	672	107	288	16	7	302	89	-7	+2	+4	+6	+16	2.2
2034	29	MLB	TB	53%	571	522	133	18	3	11	39	92	5	18	4	255	313	364	677	109	287	16	7	300	88	-8	+2	+3	+6	+16	2.0
2035	30	MLB	TB	53%	561	513	128	17	2	10	38	92	5	16	3	250	308	349	656	99	286	16	7	298	86	-9	+2	+2	+6	+16	1.8
2036	31	MLB	TB	52%	547	500	123	16	2	9	37	92	5	14	3	246	304	340	644	94	284	17	7	294	83	-10	+2	+1	+6	+15	1.4
2037	32	MLB	TB	52%	529	484	118	15	2	9	36	91	4	12	3	244	302	339	640	95	282	17	7	289	79	-12	+1	+1	+6	+15	1.0
2038	33	MLB	TB	52%	499	458	110	14	2	8	34	88	4	10	2	240	298	332	630	92	279	18	7	282	74	-14	+1	-0	+5	+14	0.6
2039	34	MLB	TB	47%	453	417	96	11	2	6	30	83	3	8	2	230	287	309	596	79	274	18	7	274	68	-16	+1	-1	+5	+13	0.1
2027	22	MLB	TB	35%	165	154	38	5	1	1	9	26	1	8	2	247	293	312	604	65	289	16	5	274	68	-6	+1	+1	+2	+5	0.3
2028	23	MLB	TB	49%	252	233	59	8	1	3	15	40	2	12	2	253	304	335	639	82	291	16	6	286	77	-7	+2	+2	+3	+7	0.7
2029	24	MLB	TB	53%	292	269	70	9	2	5	18	46	3	13	3	260	314	364	678	104	292	16	6	293	82	-6	+1	+2	+3	+8	0.9
2030	25	MLB	TB	55%	314	288	75	10	2	6	20	50	3	13	3	260	315	372	687	111	292	16	6	297	85	-5	+1	+2	+3	+9	1.1
2031	26	MLB	TB	56%	325	298	77	10	2	6	21	51	3	12	3	258	314	366	679	107	292	16	6	298	86	-5	+1	+3	+3	+9	1.2
2032	27	MLB	TB	55%	322	295	77	10	2	6	21	51	3	12	2	261	317	369	686	108	292	16	7	298	87	-5	+2	+3	+3	+9	1.2
2033	28	MLB	TB	55%	318	291	76	10	2	6	21	51	3	11	2	261	317	371	689	110	292	16	7	298	86	-5	+1	+2	+3	+9	1.1
2034	29	MLB	TB	53%	305	278	71	9	1	6	21	49	3	9	2	255	315	360	674	104	291	16	7	296	85	-5	+1	+2	+3	+9	0.9
2035	30	MLB	TB	53%	295	270	68	9	1	5	20	48	3	8	2	252	311	348	659	96	290	16	7	293	83	-6	+1	+1	+3	+8	0.8
2036	31	MLB	TB	52%	285	262	65	8	1	5	19	48	2	7	2	248	304	344	647	95	288	17	7	290	80	-7	+1	+1	+3	+8	0.6
2037	32	MLB	TB	52%	274	251	62	8	1	4	19	47	2	6	1	247	305	335	640	88	286	17	7	285	76	-7	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2038	33	MLB	TB	52%	258	237	58	7	1	4	17	46	2	5	1	245	301	333	634	89	283	18	7	279	71	-8	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.2
2039	34	MLB	TB	47%	214	196	46	5	1	3	14	39	2	4	1	235	292	316	609	82	278	18	7	271	65	-8	+0	-1	+2	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3620	3323	842	108	18	60	235	592	32	120	26	253	309	351	660	98	291	16	6	290	80	-80	+14	+18	+39	+103	9.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	151	19	3	11	42	106	6	22	5	253	309	350	659	97	290	16	6	290	80	-14	+2	+3	+7	+18	1.7
Career	—			—	8086	7433	1811	242	38	120	519	1355	64	347	69	244	299	335	634	91	282	17	6	285	77	-213	+42	+37	+87	+229	18.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	145	19	3	10	42	109	5	28	6	242	298	334	633	92	280	17	6	285	77	-17	+3	+3	+7	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	39	8	2	0	0	7	9	1	3	0	205	340	256	597	51	267	19	15	290	80	-1	+1	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	417	100	21	3	0	34	72	2	51	9	240	300	305	605	65	289	16	7	276	70	-16	+7	—	—	+13	0.4
2025	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	365	96	13	2	2	35	49	1	47	8	263	329	326	655	63	293	12	9	295	84	-7	+6	—	—	+12	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	11	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
	/162	664	7	18	271	314	372	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#2Alcides Escobarlast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,178 PA	12	6,178	45	178	258	295	345	+66	+92	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	5	19	258	295	345	+7.1	+9.9	2.1	pk7: 17
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	8	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
	/162	664	14	30	243	301	366	+2.4	+12.6	2.6	pk7: 11
#5Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#6José Perazalast yr '21 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,134 PA	6	2,134	35	76	266	307	373	+14	+31	8.6	8.6
	/162	664	11	24	266	307	373	+4.5	+9.7	2.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,619	62	122	251	304	350	+37	+28	8.3	7.4
	/162	664	11	22	251	304	350	+6.8	+5.1	1.5	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Santana (OGILVIE)	21	50→45	25→20	70	35	269/321/333	64	309	3	31	14%	6%	81	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Randy Romero 2021 · A	21	50	37→40	60	46	236/278/312	77	269	3	22	14%	5%	63	-0.9	202/245/265	63	275	3	17	26%	5%	37	-2.7	177/216/220	43	245	1	22	27%	4%	11	-1.1
✕Carlos Willoughby 2011 · A	22	50→42	36→40	62→60	49	232/308/311	79	296	2	28	21%	8%	76	+0.0	207/277/276	69	268	2	17	21%	8%	54	-1.4	197/272/260	63	253	1	17	20%	8%	45	-1.4
✕Pedro Toribio 2012 · A	22	48	40	65→60	45	228/274/334	105	272	6	27	18%	6%	66	-0.6	250/279/329	79	309	3	23	19%	4%	66	-0.6	280/299/338	58	344	0	29	18%	2%	72	-0.1
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2014 · A	21	46	36→40	57→65	50	215/283/286	72	264	2	25	19%	8%	59	-1.1	210/290/278	68	276	2	23	22%	9%	60	-1.0	196/288/254	58	259	1	30	22%	10%	50	-0.6
✕Tyler James 2018 · A	21	44	36→30	64→65	42	204/266/281	77	293	2	27	29%	7%	50	-1.7	220/283/294	74	332	4	27	32%	7%	61	-1.0	230/297/289	60	352	4	45	33%	8%	61	-0.4
●Billy Hamilton 2011 · A	20	44→54	37→40	62→70	39	207/251/284	77	292	3	28	29%	5%	43	-2.2	238/289/310	72	334	2	63	27%	7%	66	-0.6	249/300/336	88	321	4	80	22%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Jesus Galindo 2013 · A	22	49→52	35→40	60→65	47	229/292/293	65	289	2	35	21%	7%	64	-0.8	233/283/301	68	319	3	30	26%	5%	62	-0.9	233/282/296	62	323	2	31	27%	5%	56	-0.9
✕Yonny Hernández 2019 · AA	21	50→60	35→30	56→60	52	230/305/294	64	287	2	27	20%	9%	70	-0.3	235/323/292	57	302	2	27	20%	10%	78	+0.2	268/330/326	58	319	3	17	16%	7%	84	+0.3
●Emilio Bonifácio 2006 · A	21	51→61	35→40	57→65	46	237/287/297	60	301	2	26	21%	6%	63	-0.9	260/302/339	79	336	4	30	22%	5%	79	+0.3	273/340/354	81	349	3	41	21%	9%	96	+1.1
✕Derrick Robinson 2009 · A	21	45→50	35→40	59→65	41	210/255/269	59	292	1	32	28%	6%	41	-2.3	218/257/280	62	286	3	39	23%	5%	45	-2.1	237/289/277	40	305	1	22	21%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Chris Garia 2015 · A	22	48→55	38→40	62→60	38	229/271/312	84	315	5	30	28%	4%	59	-1.1	221/262/335	114	292	9	24	26%	5%	62	-0.9	213/251/343	130	274	10	27	25%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	45→38	38→40	63→60	49	212/292/308	96	281	3	21	24%	9%	69	-0.4	201/272/280	79	302	2	16	31%	8%	53	-1.5	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	47	36→40	58→60	48	218/284/296	79	282	1	19	22%	8%	62	-0.9	228/289/317	89	300	4	16	23%	8%	69	-0.4	245/306/339	94	314	6	23	22%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Adenson Chourio 2007 · A	21	47	33→30	54→60	45	219/279/265	46	288	1	28	23%	7%	51	-1.7	239/308/284	45	306	1	29	20%	8%	69	-0.4	243/313/273	31	316	1	34	21%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Everth Cabrera 2009 · A	22	51→60	39→40	61→65	43	238/293/326	89	318	5	34	26%	6%	73	-0.1	239/307/330	91	313	4	33	23%	8%	80	+0.4	262/328/346	84	335	4	54	21%	8%	89	+0.7
✕Randy Ventura 2017 · A	20	50→54	35→30	58→60	49	234/291/292	58	287	2	26	19%	7%	63	-0.8	229/272/270	41	320	1	19	27%	5%	49	-1.8	223/266/250	27	321	1	19	29%	5%	38	-1.7
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2010 · A	20	49→59	36→45	60	48	227/275/295	68	267	2	31	16%	6%	56	-1.3	244/293/341	97	285	8	24	16%	6%	76	+0.1	267/306/366	100	305	8	16	15%	5%	85	+0.5
✕Wes Rogers 2016 · A	22	47→48	38→40	65	43	223/280/308	85	293	5	35	25%	6%	63	-0.8	217/271/302	85	297	5	34	27%	6%	58	-1.2	209/263/288	80	288	5	36	28%	6%	48	-1.5
✕José Peraza 2014 · A	20	52→62	36→45	60→65	43	244/281/309	66	292	2	33	17%	4%	63	-0.9	265/291/347	82	307	4	36	14%	3%	76	+0.1	272/311/362	90	305	8	25	13%	4%	86	+0.7
✕Leury García 2011 · A	20	49→59	35→45	58→60	39	230/264/287	57	302	3	28	25%	4%	50	-1.8	231/264/305	74	319	4	27	27%	4%	54	-1.4	271/310/392	120	337	12	22	22%	4%	95	+0.8