Adrian Santana — OGILVIE

Adrian SantanaSS Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 21 S/R 5'11" / 155 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.3 · 2031

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .270 / .293

PA320

HR2

SB21

K%19

BB%6

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50↘45

PWR

25↘20

SPD

70→70

FLD

60→60

EYE

39↘35

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2031

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.1	$19M	+$18M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.3	$21M	+$20M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.3	$22M	+$21M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.1	$21M	+$16M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.9	$19M	+$13M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.6	$17M	+$8M
Totals		$22M		$119M	+$97M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	FCL Rays	47	41	6	1	0	0	5	13	1	3	0	.146	.255	.171	.426	.024	.214	28	11	.203	14	-5	+1	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
2024	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	455	431	81	16	2	0	20	104	2	51	9	.188	.227	.234	.462	.046	.247	23	4	.207	17	-43	+7	+0	+5	+13	-1.9
2025	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	409	378	84	10	2	2	22	63	1	47	8	.222	.267	.275	.542	.053	.256	15	5	.239	41	-27	+6	+0	+4	+12	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	21	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	63	56	15	2	0	0	4	9	1	6	2	.268	.328	.304	.631	.036	.312	14	6	.274	68	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	21	MLB	TB	257	239	56	9	1	2	15	47	1	15	3	.234	.282	.305	.588	.071	.279	18	6	.261	58	-12	+2	+2	+3	+7	0.2
TOT	21	MLB	TB	320	295	71	11	1	2	19	56	2	21	5	.241	.291	.305	.596	.064	.289	18	6	.264	60	-14	+2	+2	+3	+9	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 11%	TB	468	432	102	17	2	5	30	82	3	24	5	.236	.290	.319	.610	.083	.277	18	6	.274	68	-17	+3	+4	+5	+13	0.8
2028	23	MLB 28%	TB	520	475	115	19	2	8	36	90	4	24	5	.242	.301	.341	.642	.099	.279	17	7	.286	77	-13	+3	+4	+6	+15	1.4
2029	24	MLB 45%	TB	554	505	123	20	2	10	40	96	4	24	5	.244	.304	.350	.655	.107	.280	17	7	.294	83	-11	+3	+4	+6	+16	1.9
2030	25	MLB 60%	TB	574	522	129	21	3	11	43	99	4	23	5	.247	.309	.362	.671	.115	.281	17	7	.299	87	-9	+3	+5	+6	+16	2.1
2031	26	MLB 78%	TB	583	529	130	21	3	11	45	101	4	22	4	.246	.310	.359	.669	.113	.281	17	8	.301	88	-8	+3	+5	+6	+17	2.3
2032	27	MLB 92%	TB	585	531	130	21	3	11	45	101	4	20	4	.245	.309	.358	.666	.113	.281	17	8	.301	88	-8	+2	+5	+6	+17	2.3
2033	28	MLB	TB	581	526	128	21	2	11	46	102	4	19	3	.243	.309	.354	.663	.110	.281	18	8	.300	88	-8	+3	+4	+6	+16	2.1
2034	29	MLB	TB	571	517	125	20	2	11	45	102	4	17	3	.242	.307	.352	.659	.110	.280	18	8	.298	86	-9	+2	+3	+6	+16	1.9
2035	30	MLB	TB	561	508	122	20	2	10	44	102	4	16	2	.240	.306	.346	.652	.106	.279	18	8	.294	84	-10	+2	+2	+6	+16	1.6
2036	31	MLB	TB	547	495	117	19	2	9	43	102	4	14	2	.236	.303	.337	.640	.101	.278	19	8	.291	81	-12	+2	+1	+6	+15	1.3
2037	32	MLB	TB	529	479	113	18	2	9	42	101	3	13	1	.236	.302	.338	.640	.102	.277	19	8	.286	77	-14	+2	+1	+6	+15	1.0
2038	33	MLB	TB	499	454	104	16	2	8	39	99	3	11	0	.229	.294	.326	.620	.097	.275	20	8	.281	73	-15	+2	-0	+5	+14	0.6
2039	34	MLB	TB	453	412	92	14	2	6	35	93	3	10	0	.223	.289	.311	.600	.087	.274	21	8	.275	68	-16	+2	-1	+5	+13	0.2
2040	35	MLB	TB	397	362	79	12	1	5	30	86	2	9	0	.218	.282	.298	.580	.080	.272	22	8	.267	63	-17	+2	-2	+4	+11	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8590	7836	1836	295	35	129	625	1583	55	362	59	.234	.295	.330	.626	.096	.277	18	7	.282	74	-253	+49	+35	+92	+243	17.0
/ 162G	—			650	593	139	22	3	10	47	120	4	27	4	.234	.295	.332	.627	.098	.276	18	7	.282	74	-19	+4	+3	+7	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	FCL Rays	47	39	8	2	0	0	7	9	1	3	0	.205	.340	.256	.597	.051	.267	19	15	.290	80	-1	+1	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	455	417	100	21	3	0	34	72	2	51	9	.240	.300	.305	.605	.065	.289	16	7	.276	70	-16	+7	—	—	+13	0.4
2025	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	409	365	96	13	2	2	35	49	1	47	8	.263	.329	.326	.655	.063	.293	12	9	.295	84	-7	+6	—	—	+12	1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Santana (OGILVIE)	21	50→45	25→20	70	35	.224/.270/.293	.069	.274	2	16	19%	6%	55	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Willoughby 2011 · A	22	50→41	36→40	62→60	50	.232/.310/.308	.076	.297	2	28	21%	8%	76	+0.1	.204/.270/.269	.065	.263	2	18	21%	7%	49	-1.8	.190/.258/.245	.055	.244	1	17	21%	7%	35	-1.9
✕Pedro Toribio 2012 · A	22	47	39→40	63→60	46	.225/.273/.324	.099	.270	5	25	19%	6%	63	-0.8	.246/.276/.328	.082	.304	3	23	19%	4%	65	-0.7	.272/.292/.330	.058	.335	0	29	18%	2%	67	-0.2
✕Billy Hamilton 2012 · A	21	47→57	36→40	65→70	41	.221/.266/.289	.068	.310	3	41	28%	6%	51	-1.7	.244/.296/.324	.080	.327	3	70	24%	7%	73	-0.1	.249/.300/.335	.087	.320	4	80	22%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Tyler James 2018 · A	21	44	36→30	63→65	42	.205/.267/.282	.077	.295	2	25	29%	7%	51	-1.7	.219/.282/.293	.074	.330	4	28	32%	7%	60	-1.0	.230/.297/.289	.060	.352	4	45	33%	8%	61	-0.4
✕Everth Cabrera 2009 · A	22	48→58	38→40	60→65	43	.228/.283/.312	.085	.304	5	32	26%	6%	66	-0.6	.238/.305/.329	.091	.310	4	33	22%	8%	79	+0.3	.260/.326/.339	.079	.330	3	54	20%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Chris Garia 2015 · A	22	48→55	38→40	61→60	38	.227/.268/.310	.083	.307	5	29	27%	4%	58	-1.2	.225/.264/.336	.111	.295	9	25	26%	4%	63	-0.8	.216/.252/.343	.127	.274	11	27	25%	4%	56	-0.6
✕Randy Romero 2021 · A	21	50	37→40	59→60	46	.232/.275/.308	.075	.266	3	22	14%	5%	59	-1.1	.205/.248/.269	.064	.274	3	17	25%	5%	39	-2.5	.178/.217/.223	.045	.246	1	22	27%	4%	12	-1.1
✕Jesus Galindo 2013 · A	22	47→51	35→30	60→65	46	.217/.281/.276	.059	.277	2	36	21%	7%	55	-1.4	.227/.275/.291	.064	.310	3	31	26%	5%	56	-1.3	.228/.275/.288	.060	.316	2	31	27%	5%	52	-1.0
✕Yonny Hernández 2019 · AA	21	48→58	35→30	57→60	52	.223/.296/.286	.062	.272	2	27	18%	8%	65	-0.7	.231/.318/.286	.055	.296	2	27	20%	10%	74	-0.1	.238/.316/.298	.060	.299	3	17	20%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	46→39	38→40	62→60	49	.213/.292/.305	.092	.282	3	21	24%	9%	68	-0.5	.204/.275/.284	.080	.297	2	16	29%	8%	55	-1.4	.219/.291/.296	.077	.328	2	26	31%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Wes Rogers 2016 · A	22	46→51	39→40	64→65	43	.219/.275/.306	.087	.286	6	33	25%	6%	60	-1.0	.220/.275/.309	.089	.294	6	34	25%	6%	61	-1.0	.216/.270/.302	.086	.290	6	36	26%	6%	55	-1.1
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2015 · A	22	47	36→40	59→65	53	.217/.300/.288	.072	.271	2	30	20%	10%	67	-0.5	.206/.280/.274	.068	.278	2	17	24%	8%	55	-1.4	.170/.237/.218	.048	.234	0	10	25%	7%	17	-1.1
✕Randy Ventura 2017 · A	20	50→55	35→30	58→60	49	.235/.292/.294	.059	.288	2	27	18%	7%	64	-0.8	.235/.279/.278	.043	.320	2	20	25%	6%	53	-1.5	.229/.273/.258	.028	.322	1	19	27%	5%	43	-1.5
✕Ryan Brett 2013 · A	21	51→55	39→45	59→60	45	.241/.288/.332	.092	.293	5	26	20%	6%	72	-0.2	.248/.289/.357	.109	.301	8	23	20%	5%	79	+0.3	.248/.284/.359	.111	.298	9	21	20%	4%	74	-0.0
✕Leury García 2013 · AA	22	50→58	37→45	60	38	.235/.267/.311	.075	.314	3	28	26%	4%	57	-1.2	.229/.266/.311	.082	.316	5	30	28%	4%	56	-1.3	.272/.310/.392	.120	.338	12	22	22%	4%	95	+0.8
✕Derrick Robinson 2010 · A	22	45→50	36→40	60→65	41	.215/.254/.279	.065	.283	3	37	25%	5%	43	-2.2	.223/.266/.281	.058	.290	3	38	22%	5%	49	-1.8	.237/.290/.278	.041	.306	1	22	21%	7%	57	-0.8
✕Emilio Bonifácio 2006 · A	21	51→61	35→40	56→65	47	.238/.290/.299	.060	.297	2	25	20%	7%	64	-0.8	.259/.301/.338	.079	.333	4	30	22%	6%	79	+0.3	.269/.309/.349	.080	.345	3	31	22%	5%	81	+0.4
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	46	36→40	57→60	47	.215/.281/.293	.077	.280	1	18	22%	8%	59	-1.1	.228/.289/.316	.088	.298	4	17	23%	8%	69	-0.4	.245/.306/.339	.094	.314	6	23	22%	8%	78	+0.1
✕José Peraza 2014 · A	20	50→60	35→45	60→65	43	.235/.273/.298	.063	.279	2	31	17%	4%	56	-1.3	.263/.289/.342	.079	.305	3	36	14%	3%	74	-0.1	.273/.311/.358	.084	.306	7	25	13%	4%	84	+0.6
✕Eddy Diaz 2021 · A	21	49→53	37→40	61→65	52	.226/.294/.309	.083	.267	3	31	16%	8%	69	-0.4	.216/.272/.279	.063	.302	3	30	28%	5%	52	-1.6	.202/.259/.260	.057	.283	3	31	28%	5%	39	-1.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)