Adrian Santana — OGILVIE

Adrian SantanaSS Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 21 S/R 5'11" / 155 lbs A+ HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION383 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .300 / .222

PA10

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP297

ISO57

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED70

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+1.2	$7M	+$1M
2032	Arb-3	$13M	+1.2	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$17M		$30M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	39	8	2	0	0	7	9	1	3	0	205	340	256	597	51	267	19	15	290	82	-1	+1	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	417	100	21	3	0	34	72	2	51	9	240	300	305	605	65	289	16	7	276	73	-14	+7	—	—	+10	0.2
2025	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	365	96	13	2	2	35	49	1	47	8	263	329	326	655	63	293	12	9	295	86	-7	+6	—	—	+9	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	5	13	1	3	0	146	255	171	426	24	212	28	11	203	24	-4	+1	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	431	81	16	2	0	20	104	2	51	9	188	227	234	462	46	248	23	4	209	28	-39	+7	—	—	+10	-2.3
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	376	87	10	2	2	24	64	1	47	8	231	279	285	564	53	263	16	6	251	56	-21	+6	—	—	+9	-0.6
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	5	13	1	3	0	146	255	171	426	24	214	28	11	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	47	39	8	2	0	0	7	9	1	3	0	205	340	256	597	51	267	19	15	290	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	431	81	16	2	0	20	104	2	51	9	188	227	234	462	46	247	23	4	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	417	100	21	3	0	34	72	2	51	9	240	300	305	605	65	289	16	7	276	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	376	87	10	2	2	24	64	1	47	8	231	279	285	564	53	268	16	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	365	96	13	2	2	35	49	1	47	8	263	329	326	655	63	293	12	9	295	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	5	13	1	3	0	146	255	171	426	24	212	28	11	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	430	81	16	2	0	20	104	2	51	9	188	227	235	462	47	248	23	4	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	381	87	10	2	2	24	64	1	47	8	228	279	281	560	52	263	16	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	5	13	1	3	0	146	255	171	426	24	212	28	11	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	430	81	16	2	0	20	104	2	51	9	188	227	235	462	47	248	23	4	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	381	87	10	2	2	24	64	1	47	8	228	279	281	560	52	263	16	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	TB	—	383	353	95	13	1	2	22	55	5	30	5	269	321	329	650	59	313	14	6	290	82	-8	+4	+0	+4	+8	0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ RAW	TB	—	241	215	68	7	1	3	19	23	4	23	5	316	381	400	781	84	342	10	8	351	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	AA RAW	TB	—	142	126	31	8	0	0	14	20	1	7	0	246	326	310	636	63	292	14	10	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A+ MLE	TB	0%	10	9	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	222	300	222	522		290	20	10	273	71	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	21	A+ MLE	TB	—	393	362	97	13	1	2	23	57	5	31	5	268	321	326	646	58	312	15	6	290	82	-8	+4	+0	+4	+9	0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TB	35%	485	450	112	17	2	4	28	75	4	24	4	249	299	322	621	73	287	15	6	279	75	-14	+3	+4	+5	+11	0.8
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	49%	531	489	124	19	2	7	33	82	4	24	4	254	306	344	650	90	289	15	6	291	83	-10	+3	+4	+6	+12	1.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	TB	53%	562	516	132	20	2	9	36	87	5	24	4	256	311	355	665	99	290	15	6	299	89	-8	+3	+4	+6	+12	1.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	TB	55%	579	531	136	21	2	10	38	90	5	24	4	256	312	360	672	104	290	16	7	304	92	-6	+3	+5	+6	+13	2.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	TB	56%	587	538	138	21	2	11	39	91	5	23	4	257	313	364	677	108	290	16	7	305	93	-5	+3	+5	+6	+13	2.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	TB	55%	587	537	138	21	2	11	40	92	5	22	4	257	314	365	679	108	290	16	7	306	93	-5	+3	+5	+6	+13	2.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	TB	55%	582	532	137	21	2	11	40	92	5	20	3	258	315	367	682	109	290	16	7	305	92	-5	+3	+4	+6	+13	2.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	TB	53%	572	523	133	20	2	10	39	91	5	18	3	254	312	358	670	103	289	16	7	303	91	-6	+2	+3	+6	+12	1.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	TB	53%	562	513	131	20	2	10	39	91	5	16	3	255	314	361	675	105	288	16	7	300	89	-7	+2	+2	+6	+12	1.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	TB	52%	547	499	126	19	2	9	38	90	5	14	2	253	312	353	665	100	286	16	7	296	87	-9	+2	+1	+6	+12	1.3
2037	32	MLB MLE	TB	52%	529	484	119	17	2	8	36	89	4	12	2	246	303	339	642	93	284	17	7	291	83	-11	+2	+1	+6	+11	0.9
2038	33	MLB MLE	TB	52%	499	458	111	16	2	7	34	87	4	10	2	242	300	332	632	90	281	17	7	284	79	-13	+1	-0	+5	+11	0.4
2039	34	MLB MLE	TB	47%	453	416	97	13	1	6	31	82	3	8	1	233	291	312	604	79	276	18	7	276	73	-15	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	TB	35%	168	155	39	6	1	1	10	26	1	8	1	252	301	323	624	71	295	15	6	280	75	-5	+1	+1	+2	+4	0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	49%	258	238	61	10	1	3	16	40	2	12	2	256	309	345	653	88	297	16	6	292	83	-5	+2	+2	+3	+6	0.7
2029	24	MLB CTX	TB	53%	297	273	71	11	1	5	19	46	3	13	2	260	315	363	678	103	298	15	6	300	89	-4	+2	+2	+3	+6	1.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	TB	55%	317	290	77	12	1	6	21	49	3	13	2	266	322	376	698	110	298	15	7	305	92	-3	+2	+2	+3	+7	1.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	TB	56%	327	299	78	12	1	6	22	51	3	13	2	261	318	368	686	107	298	16	7	306	93	-3	+2	+3	+4	+7	1.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	TB	55%	323	295	77	12	1	6	22	50	3	12	2	261	319	369	688	108	298	15	7	306	93	-3	+2	+3	+3	+7	1.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	TB	55%	318	290	76	12	1	6	22	50	3	11	2	262	321	372	693	110	298	16	7	306	92	-3	+1	+2	+3	+7	1.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	TB	53%	305	278	73	11	1	6	21	49	3	10	2	263	321	374	695	112	297	16	7	304	91	-3	+1	+2	+3	+7	1.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	TB	53%	295	270	70	11	1	5	20	48	3	9	1	259	317	363	680	104	296	16	7	301	89	-4	+1	+1	+3	+6	0.9
2036	31	MLB CTX	TB	52%	285	261	67	10	1	5	20	47	2	7	1	257	314	360	675	103	294	16	7	297	87	-5	+1	+1	+3	+6	0.7
2037	32	MLB CTX	TB	52%	274	251	63	10	1	4	19	46	2	6	1	251	309	347	655	96	292	17	7	292	83	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2038	33	MLB CTX	TB	52%	258	236	59	9	1	4	18	45	2	5	1	250	309	347	656	97	288	17	7	285	79	-7	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.2
2039	34	MLB CTX	TB	47%	214	196	48	7	1	3	14	39	2	4	1	245	302	337	639	92	283	18	7	277	73	-7	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3639	3332	859	133	13	60	244	586	32	123	20	258	315	360	674	102	295	16	7	298	81	-56	+17	+19	+39	+79	9.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	154	24	2	11	44	105	6	22	4	259	316	361	678	103	297	16	7	298	81	-10	+3	+3	+7	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	7996	7343	1810	272	29	115	521	1322	63	341	57	246	302	338	640	92	285	17	7	288	81	-114	+32	+36	+76	+154	18.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	146	22	2	9	42	107	5	28	5	245	300	333	633	89	282	16	6	288	81	-10	+3	+3	+7	+14	1.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#2Alcides Escobarlast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,178 PA	9.3	6,178	45	178	258	295	345	+66	+92	19.2	18.2
/162	664	5	19	+7.1	+9.9	2.1	pk7: 17
#3Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
/162	664	17	9	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	4.2	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
/162	664	14	30	+2.4	+12.6	2.5	pk7: 11
#6José Perazalast yr '21 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,134 PA	3.2	2,134	35	76	266	307	373	+14	+31	8.6	8.6
/162	664	11	24	+4.5	+9.7	2.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.5	3,640	60	123	253	306	353	+37	+28	9.7	8.5
/162	664	11	22	+6.8	+5.1	1.8	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Santana (OGILVIE)	21	50→45	25→20	70	35	245/294/302	57	290	1	21	15%	6%	71	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Willoughby 2011 · A	22	50→44	36→40	62→60	49	232/308/311	79	296	2	28	21%	8%	78	-0.3	208/277/274	66	271	2	17	22%	8%	59	-1.7	199/272/257	58	258	1	17	21%	8%	50	-1.6
✕Randy Romero 2021 · A	21	50	37→40	60	46	236/278/312	77	269	3	22	14%	5%	67	-1.1	202/245/267	65	275	3	17	26%	5%	45	-2.7	178/216/225	47	246	1	22	27%	4%	22	-1.1
✕Jesus Galindo 2013 · A	22	48→51	35→30	60→65	46	225/286/286	62	288	2	35	22%	6%	65	-1.2	231/280/297	66	318	3	30	26%	5%	64	-1.3	231/279/292	61	321	2	31	27%	5%	60	-1.0
●Emilio Bonifácio 2006 · A	21	51→61	35→40	57→65	46	237/287/297	60	301	2	26	21%	6%	67	-1.1	261/303/340	79	336	3	30	22%	5%	82	-0.0	270/336/350	80	345	3	41	21%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2014 · A	21	46	36→40	57→65	50	215/283/286	72	264	2	25	19%	8%	63	-1.3	210/290/278	68	276	2	23	22%	9%	65	-1.2	196/288/254	58	259	1	30	22%	10%	56	-0.6
✕Pedro Toribio 2012 · A	22	48	40	65→60	45	228/274/334	105	272	6	27	18%	6%	70	-0.8	246/275/326	80	306	3	23	20%	4%	68	-1.0	271/291/330	59	338	0	29	19%	2%	70	-0.3
✕Tyler James 2018 · A	21	44	36→30	64→65	42	204/266/281	77	293	2	27	29%	7%	56	-1.9	220/283/294	74	332	4	27	32%	7%	65	-1.2	230/297/289	60	352	4	45	33%	8%	65	-0.5
✕Yonny Hernández 2019 · AA	21	49→59	35→30	56→60	52	228/304/291	62	282	2	27	19%	9%	73	-0.6	235/323/289	54	300	2	27	20%	10%	80	-0.2	265/327/322	57	316	2	17	16%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Billy Hamilton 2011 · A	20	44→54	37→40	62→70	39	207/251/284	77	292	3	28	29%	5%	50	-2.3	236/288/308	72	330	2	63	27%	7%	70	-0.9	241/300/326	84	310	4	55	22%	8%	76	-0.4
✕Chris Garia 2015 · A	22	48→54	38→40	62→60	38	229/270/309	81	310	5	30	27%	4%	63	-1.4	224/264/336	112	293	9	24	26%	5%	68	-1.0	218/256/346	128	277	10	27	25%	4%	63	-0.6
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2010 · A	20	49→59	36→40	60	48	227/275/295	68	267	2	31	16%	6%	61	-1.5	246/293/337	91	288	6	24	16%	6%	78	-0.3	268/307/357	89	308	6	16	14%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Everth Cabrera 2009 · A	22	51→59	39→40	61→65	43	238/293/326	89	318	5	34	26%	6%	76	-0.4	240/307/329	89	313	4	33	22%	8%	82	+0.0	263/328/345	82	334	3	54	21%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	45→41	38→40	63→60	49	212/292/308	96	281	3	21	24%	9%	72	-0.7	202/272/280	78	301	2	16	31%	8%	58	-1.7	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Leury García 2011 · A	20	48→58	36→45	58→60	39	226/261/285	58	296	3	28	24%	4%	54	-2.0	233/266/307	74	319	4	27	27%	4%	61	-1.5	271/310/387	116	339	11	22	23%	4%	94	+0.5
✕Randy Ventura 2017 · A	20	50→54	35→30	58→60	49	234/291/292	58	287	2	26	19%	7%	68	-1.0	231/275/273	42	322	1	19	27%	5%	56	-1.9	226/270/255	28	324	1	19	29%	5%	47	-1.7
✕Adenson Chourio 2007 · A	21	47	33→30	54→60	45	219/279/265	46	288	1	28	23%	7%	57	-1.8	239/308/284	45	306	1	29	20%	8%	72	-0.7	243/313/273	31	316	1	34	21%	7%	68	-0.5
✕José Peraza 2014 · A	20	52→62	36→45	61→65	43	243/282/310	67	291	2	33	17%	4%	68	-1.0	266/291/344	78	308	3	36	14%	3%	78	-0.3	272/310/361	89	305	7	25	13%	4%	87	+0.3
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	47	36→40	58→60	48	218/284/296	79	282	1	19	22%	8%	66	-1.1	228/289/317	89	300	4	16	23%	8%	72	-0.7	245/306/339	94	314	6	23	22%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Derrick Robinson 2009 · A	21	45→53	35→40	59→65	41	210/255/269	59	292	1	32	28%	6%	48	-2.5	223/263/287	64	289	3	39	23%	5%	55	-1.9	235/287/274	40	302	1	22	21%	7%	60	-1.0
✕Rochest Cruz 2019 · A	20	49	37→40	61→65	54	226/303/299	73	269	4	34	16%	9%	74	-0.5	206/274/271	65	290	3	23	28%	7%	57	-1.8	144/214/156	12	235	0	30	35%	6%	7	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps