Adrian Santana

SS Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 22 S/R 5'11" / 155 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP40OGV rank#392ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ATB455.240/.300/.30505135—.196/.241/.245
202520A+TB409.263/.329/.32624755—.230/.274/.283
202621AA/A+2 orgs383.290/.361/.36733083—.272/.324/.343
2027PROJMLE22MLBTB1.238/.287/.3010065-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB23MLBTB123.244/.294/.32316730.1
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBTB190.247/.299/.33838790.4
Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$6M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Whiff%99
K%95
Z-Con%95
Speed74
Chase%47
BB%45
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 78%
CompsYonny Hernández (age 21) · Rodolfo Penalo (age 22) · Jesus Galindo (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†65
AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .287 / .301
PA1
HR0
K%16
BB%6
BABIP278
ISO62
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: +1.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.40.50.60.60.527282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.4$1M+$0.7M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1.0M
2031Arb-1$3M+0.6$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-2$5M+0.6$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-3$6M+0.5$1M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $8M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202318 ROKFCL Rays — 4739 8200 791 30 205340256597 51267 1915 290 26 — — — — — —
202419 ACharleston RiverDogs — 455417 1002130 34722 519 240300305605 65289 167 276 35 — — — — — —
202520 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods — 409365 961322 35491 478 263329326655 63293 129 295 55 — — — — — —
202621 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 142126 31800 14201 70 246326310636 63292 1410 293 68 — — — — — —
202621 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods — 241215 68713 19234 235 316381400781 84342 108 351 92 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202318 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 4741 6100 5131 30 146255171426 24217 2811 207 26 — — — — — —
202419 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 455428 841720 23992 519 196241245486 49256 225 220 35 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 409378 871022 22631 478 230274283557 53259 155 249 55 — — — — — —
202621 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 142130 31800 10241 70 238298300598 62296 177 269 68 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 241223 65613 12304 235 291339368707 76317 125 304 92 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 4741 6100 5131 30 146255171426 24214 2811 207 26 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWFCL Rays — 4739 8200 791 30 205340256597 51267 1915 290 26 — — — — — —
202419 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 455428 841720 23992 519 196241245486 49255 225 220 35 — — — — — —
202419 A RAWCharleston RiverDogs — 455417 1002130 34722 519 240300305605 65289 167 276 35 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 409378 871022 22631 478 230274283557 53266 155 249 55 — — — — — —
202520 A+ RAWBowling Green Hot Rods — 409365 961322 35491 478 263329326655 63293 129 295 55 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLE2 teams — 383353 961413 22555 305 272324343666 71314 146 291 83 — — — — — —
202621 A+ RAW2 teams — 383341 991513 33435 305 290361367727 76324 119 330 83 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 4741 6100 5131 30 146255171426 24217 2811 207 26 — — — — — —
202419 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 455427 841720 23992 519 197241246487 49256 225 220 35 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 409383 871022 22631 478 227274279554 52259 155 249 55 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLE2 teams — 383353 961413 22555 305 272324343666 71309 146 291 83 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 455427 841720 23992 519 197241246487 49256 225 220 35 — — — — — —
202520 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 409383 871022 22631 478 227274279554 52259 155 249 55 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLE2 teams — 383353 961413 22555 305 272324343666 71309 146 291 83 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLETB 0% 493459 1081723 28773 244 235284299583 64275 166 265 65 -20 +3 +0 +5 +11 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202722 MLB CTXTB 0% 11 0000 000 00 238287301588 63278 00 267 65 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLETB 35% 356329 791214 21553 163 241291322613 81276 156 277 73 -11 +2 +1 +4 +8 0.3
202924 MLB MLETB 46% 411380 931426 25643 173 244296337633 93278 166 285 79 -10 +2 +2 +4 +9 0.7
203025 MLB MLETB 52% 439405 1001627 28703 173 246299346646 101279 166 290 82 -9 +2 +3 +5 +10 1.0
203126 MLB MLETB 54% 453418 1031628 29743 173 246301351652 105279 166 293 84 -9 +2 +3 +5 +10 1.2
203227 MLB MLETB 54% 456420 1021628 30763 153 245301352653 106280 177 293 84 -8 +2 +3 +5 +10 1.1
203328 MLB MLETB 54% 454418 1021628 30773 132 244299347646 104279 177 290 83 -9 +2 +2 +5 +10 1.0
203429 MLB MLETB 53% 444409 991627 29763 112 241296342638 100278 177 287 80 -10 +1 +2 +5 +10 0.7
203530 MLB MLETB 52% 432398 951517 28763 92 239293334627 96277 186 282 77 -12 +1 +1 +5 +9 0.4
203631 MLB MLETB 52% 416384 901416 26753 62 235288325613 90274 186 277 73 -13 +0 -0 +4 +9 0.1
202823 MLB CTXTB 35% 123114 27401 7191 61 244294323617 80280 156 279 73 -4 +1 +0 +1 +3 0.1
202924 MLB CTXTB 46% 190175 44713 12301 81 247299338637 91282 166 287 79 -5 +1 +1 +2 +4 0.4
203025 MLB CTXTB 52% 227209 53814 14362 92 249302347649 99282 166 292 82 -5 +1 +2 +2 +5 0.5
203126 MLB CTXTB 54% 246226 56914 16402 92 249303352655 103283 167 294 84 -5 +1 +2 +3 +5 0.6
203227 MLB CTXTB 54% 247227 56914 16412 81 248303352655 104283 176 294 84 -5 +1 +2 +3 +5 0.6
203328 MLB CTXTB 54% 246226 56914 16422 71 246301348649 102282 177 292 83 -5 +1 +1 +3 +5 0.5
203429 MLB CTXTB 53% 236217 53814 15412 61 244299342641 98281 176 288 80 -6 +1 +1 +3 +5 0.4
203530 MLB CTXTB 52% 226208 50813 15401 51 241295335630 94280 187 284 77 -6 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.2
203631 MLB CTXTB 52% 216199 47713 14391 31 237291326616 89278 186 278 73 -7 +0 -0 +2 +5 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19571801 44269830 12532814 6111 245299343642 97284 176 288 73 -46 +8 +8 +21 +42 3.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650598 14723310 421095 204 246301344646 99284 176 288 73 -15 +3 +3 +7 +14 1.1
Career— MLE — 53654956 11821842167 33090637 26247 238291325616 86278 176 277 73 -101 +16 +17 +44 +88 6.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650600 1432238 401104 326 238290325615 87278 176 277 73 -16 +3 +3 +7 +14 1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 241 PAwOBA .344 → .304 (−40)K% 9.5% → 12.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.54%÷1.000×1.310——12.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.88%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0274.86%
HBP% /PA1.66%—×0.770—×1.0271.31%
Singles /BIP29.69%÷1.000×0.870×1.050×1.02727.85%
Doubles /BIP3.65%÷1.000×0.780×1.050×1.0273.07%
Triples /BIP0.52%÷1.000×0.850×1.050×1.0270.48%
Home runs /BIP1.56%÷1.000×0.880—×1.0271.41%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .344 → .304; ISO .084 → .075; BABIP .342 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 142 PAwOBA .286 → .269 (−16)K% 14.1% → 17.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.08%÷1.000×1.220——17.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.86%÷1.000×0.680—×1.0507.04%
HBP% /PA0.70%—×0.840—×1.0500.62%
Singles /BIP21.70%÷1.000×0.920×1.050×1.05022.01%
Doubles /BIP7.55%÷1.000×0.910×1.050×1.0507.57%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.880×1.050×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .286 → .269; ISO .063 → .064; BABIP .292 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 409 PAwOBA .293 → .249 (−44)K% 12.0% → 15.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.98%÷1.023×1.310——15.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.56%÷0.965×0.600—×1.0425.54%
HBP% /PA0.24%—×0.770—×1.0420.20%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.005×0.870×1.003×1.04222.61%
Doubles /BIP4.11%÷1.066×0.780×1.003×1.0423.14%
Triples /BIP0.63%÷0.996×0.850×1.003×1.0420.56%
Home runs /BIP0.63%÷0.930×0.880—×1.0420.62%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .293 → .249; ISO .063 → .054; BABIP .293 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 455 PAwOBA .270 → .220 (−50)K% 15.8% → 21.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.82%÷0.985×1.360——21.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.47%÷1.047×0.690—×1.0455.15%
HBP% /PA0.44%—×0.780—×1.0450.36%
Singles /BIP22.03%÷1.071×0.920×0.997×1.04519.71%
Doubles /BIP6.09%÷1.017×0.830×0.997×1.0455.18%
Triples /BIP0.87%÷1.099×0.910×0.997×1.0450.75%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.824×0.800—×1.0450.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 114, 2B 103, 3B 120, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .270 → .220; ISO .065 → .053; BABIP .289 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Rays · 47 PAwOBA .283 → .207 (−77)K% 19.1% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.15%÷0.999×1.440——27.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.89%÷0.948×0.620—×1.0229.95%
HBP% /PA2.13%—×0.720—×1.0221.57%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷0.996×0.820—×1.02216.84%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷1.020×0.720—×1.0224.81%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720—×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.911×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .283 → .207; ISO .051 → .035; BABIP .267 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).