Adrian Santana
SS Bowling Green Hot Rods| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ATB | 455 | .240/.300/.305 | 0 | 51 | 35 | — | .196/.241/.245 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+TB | 409 | .263/.329/.326 | 2 | 47 | 55 | — | .230/.274/.283 |
| 2026 | 21 | AA/A+2 orgs | 383 | .290/.361/.367 | 3 | 30 | 83 | — | .272/.324/.343 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBTB | 1 | .238/.287/.301 | 0 | 0 | 65 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBTB | 123 | .244/.294/.323 | 1 | 6 | 73 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBTB | 190 | .247/.299/.338 | 3 | 8 | 79 | 0.4 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 47 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 205 | 340 | 256 | 597 | 51 | 267 | 19 | 15 | 290 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 455 | 417 | 100 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 34 | 72 | 2 | 51 | 9 | 240 | 300 | 305 | 605 | 65 | 289 | 16 | 7 | 276 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 409 | 365 | 96 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 49 | 1 | 47 | 8 | 263 | 329 | 326 | 655 | 63 | 293 | 12 | 9 | 295 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 142 | 126 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 246 | 326 | 310 | 636 | 63 | 292 | 14 | 10 | 293 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 241 | 215 | 68 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 23 | 4 | 23 | 5 | 316 | 381 | 400 | 781 | 84 | 342 | 10 | 8 | 351 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 47 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 146 | 255 | 171 | 426 | 24 | 217 | 28 | 11 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 455 | 428 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 2 | 51 | 9 | 196 | 241 | 245 | 486 | 49 | 256 | 22 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 409 | 378 | 87 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 63 | 1 | 47 | 8 | 230 | 274 | 283 | 557 | 53 | 259 | 15 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 142 | 130 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 238 | 298 | 300 | 598 | 62 | 296 | 17 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 241 | 223 | 65 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 4 | 23 | 5 | 291 | 339 | 368 | 707 | 76 | 317 | 12 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 47 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 146 | 255 | 171 | 426 | 24 | 214 | 28 | 11 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Rays | — | 47 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 205 | 340 | 256 | 597 | 51 | 267 | 19 | 15 | 290 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 455 | 428 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 2 | 51 | 9 | 196 | 241 | 245 | 486 | 49 | 255 | 22 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 455 | 417 | 100 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 34 | 72 | 2 | 51 | 9 | 240 | 300 | 305 | 605 | 65 | 289 | 16 | 7 | 276 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 409 | 378 | 87 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 63 | 1 | 47 | 8 | 230 | 274 | 283 | 557 | 53 | 266 | 15 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 409 | 365 | 96 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 49 | 1 | 47 | 8 | 263 | 329 | 326 | 655 | 63 | 293 | 12 | 9 | 295 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 383 | 353 | 96 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 55 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 272 | 324 | 343 | 666 | 71 | 314 | 14 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 383 | 341 | 99 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 43 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 290 | 361 | 367 | 727 | 76 | 324 | 11 | 9 | 330 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 47 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 146 | 255 | 171 | 426 | 24 | 217 | 28 | 11 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 455 | 427 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 2 | 51 | 9 | 197 | 241 | 246 | 487 | 49 | 256 | 22 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 409 | 383 | 87 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 63 | 1 | 47 | 8 | 227 | 274 | 279 | 554 | 52 | 259 | 15 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 383 | 353 | 96 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 55 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 272 | 324 | 343 | 666 | 71 | 309 | 14 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 455 | 427 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 2 | 51 | 9 | 197 | 241 | 246 | 487 | 49 | 256 | 22 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 409 | 383 | 87 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 63 | 1 | 47 | 8 | 227 | 274 | 279 | 554 | 52 | 259 | 15 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 383 | 353 | 96 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 55 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 272 | 324 | 343 | 666 | 71 | 309 | 14 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | TB | 0% | 493 | 459 | 108 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 77 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 235 | 284 | 299 | 583 | 64 | 275 | 16 | 6 | 265 | 65 | -20 | +3 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | TB | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 287 | 301 | 588 | 63 | 278 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 65 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | TB | 35% | 356 | 329 | 79 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 55 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 241 | 291 | 322 | 613 | 81 | 276 | 15 | 6 | 277 | 73 | -11 | +2 | +1 | +4 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | TB | 46% | 411 | 380 | 93 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 64 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 244 | 296 | 337 | 633 | 93 | 278 | 16 | 6 | 285 | 79 | -10 | +2 | +2 | +4 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 52% | 439 | 405 | 100 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 70 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 246 | 299 | 346 | 646 | 101 | 279 | 16 | 6 | 290 | 82 | -9 | +2 | +3 | +5 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 54% | 453 | 418 | 103 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 74 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 246 | 301 | 351 | 652 | 105 | 279 | 16 | 6 | 293 | 84 | -9 | +2 | +3 | +5 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 54% | 456 | 420 | 102 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 76 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 245 | 301 | 352 | 653 | 106 | 280 | 17 | 7 | 293 | 84 | -8 | +2 | +3 | +5 | +10 | 1.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 54% | 454 | 418 | 102 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 77 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 244 | 299 | 347 | 646 | 104 | 279 | 17 | 7 | 290 | 83 | -9 | +2 | +2 | +5 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | TB | 53% | 444 | 409 | 99 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 76 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 241 | 296 | 342 | 638 | 100 | 278 | 17 | 7 | 287 | 80 | -10 | +1 | +2 | +5 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | TB | 52% | 432 | 398 | 95 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 76 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 239 | 293 | 334 | 627 | 96 | 277 | 18 | 6 | 282 | 77 | -12 | +1 | +1 | +5 | +9 | 0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | TB | 52% | 416 | 384 | 90 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 75 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 235 | 288 | 325 | 613 | 90 | 274 | 18 | 6 | 277 | 73 | -13 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | TB | 35% | 123 | 114 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 244 | 294 | 323 | 617 | 80 | 280 | 15 | 6 | 279 | 73 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | TB | 46% | 190 | 175 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 247 | 299 | 338 | 637 | 91 | 282 | 16 | 6 | 287 | 79 | -5 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 52% | 227 | 209 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 249 | 302 | 347 | 649 | 99 | 282 | 16 | 6 | 292 | 82 | -5 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 54% | 246 | 226 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 40 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 249 | 303 | 352 | 655 | 103 | 283 | 16 | 7 | 294 | 84 | -5 | +1 | +2 | +3 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 54% | 247 | 227 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 248 | 303 | 352 | 655 | 104 | 283 | 17 | 6 | 294 | 84 | -5 | +1 | +2 | +3 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 54% | 246 | 226 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 42 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 246 | 301 | 348 | 649 | 102 | 282 | 17 | 7 | 292 | 83 | -5 | +1 | +1 | +3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | TB | 53% | 236 | 217 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 41 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 244 | 299 | 342 | 641 | 98 | 281 | 17 | 6 | 288 | 80 | -6 | +1 | +1 | +3 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | TB | 52% | 226 | 208 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 241 | 295 | 335 | 630 | 94 | 280 | 18 | 7 | 284 | 77 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | TB | 52% | 216 | 199 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 237 | 291 | 326 | 616 | 89 | 278 | 18 | 6 | 278 | 73 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1957 | 1801 | 442 | 69 | 8 | 30 | 125 | 328 | 14 | 61 | 11 | 245 | 299 | 343 | 642 | 97 | 284 | 17 | 6 | 288 | 73 | -46 | +8 | +8 | +21 | +42 | 3.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 598 | 147 | 23 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 109 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 246 | 301 | 344 | 646 | 99 | 284 | 17 | 6 | 288 | 73 | -15 | +3 | +3 | +7 | +14 | 1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5365 | 4956 | 1182 | 184 | 21 | 67 | 330 | 906 | 37 | 262 | 47 | 238 | 291 | 325 | 616 | 86 | 278 | 17 | 6 | 277 | 73 | -101 | +16 | +17 | +44 | +88 | 6.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 143 | 22 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 110 | 4 | 32 | 6 | 238 | 290 | 325 | 615 | 87 | 278 | 17 | 6 | 277 | 73 | -16 | +3 | +3 | +7 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 241 PAwOBA .344 → .304 (−40)K% 9.5% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.54% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 12.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 27.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 3.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.41% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .344 → .304; ISO .084 → .075; BABIP .342 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 142 PAwOBA .286 → .269 (−16)K% 14.1% → 17.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.08% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 7.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 22.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 7.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .286 → .269; ISO .063 → .064; BABIP .292 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 409 PAwOBA .293 → .249 (−44)K% 12.0% → 15.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.98% | ÷1.023 | ×1.310 | — | — | 15.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.56% | ÷0.965 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 5.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.24% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×1.003 | ×1.042 | 22.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.11% | ÷1.066 | ×0.780 | ×1.003 | ×1.042 | 3.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷0.996 | ×0.850 | ×1.003 | ×1.042 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.63% | ÷0.930 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.62% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .293 → .249; ISO .063 → .054; BABIP .293 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 455 PAwOBA .270 → .220 (−50)K% 15.8% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.82% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.47% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.44% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.03% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×1.045 | 19.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.09% | ÷1.017 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×1.045 | 5.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷1.099 | ×0.910 | ×0.997 | ×1.045 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.824 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 114, 2B 103, 3B 120, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .270 → .220; ISO .065 → .053; BABIP .289 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Rays · 47 PAwOBA .283 → .207 (−77)K% 19.1% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.15% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.89% | ÷0.948 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 9.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 16.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 4.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.911 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .283 → .207; ISO .051 → .035; BABIP .267 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).