Rafi Montesino — OGILVIE

Rafi MontesinoOF DSL Red Sox Red

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj PA

wRC+54

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .269 / .267

PA43

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO64

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	76	63	11	0	1	0	11	18	0	2	1	175	297	206	504	32	239	24	14	241	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	43	37	4	0	0	0	5	9	1	0	0	108	233	108	341		143	21	12	182	-34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	76	66	8	0	1	0	8	23	0	2	1	121	216	152	368	30	174	30	11	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	43	39	3	0	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	77	163	77	240		96	26	7	118	-34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	76	66	8	0	1	0	8	23	0	2	1	121	216	152	368	30	182	30	11	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	76	63	11	0	1	0	11	18	0	2	1	175	297	206	504	32	239	24	14	241	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	43	39	3	0	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	77	163	77	240		107	26	7	118	-34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	43	37	4	0	0	0	5	9	1	0	0	108	233	108	341		143	21	12	182	-34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	76	68	8	0	1	0	8	23	0	2	1	118	216	147	363	29	174	30	11	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	43	39	3	0	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	77	163	77	240		96	26	7	118	-34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	76	68	8	0	1	0	8	23	0	2	1	118	216	147	363	29	174	30	11	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	43	39	3	0	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	77	163	77	240		96	26	7	118	-34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	—	0%	153	140	28	3	1	1	11	43	1	2	1	205	271	269	540	64	288	28	7	249	54	-8	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	34%	116	105	22	3	1	1	9	32	1	1	0	209	276	282	558	73	289	28	8	256	59	-6	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	34%	40	37	7	1	0	0	3	11	0	0	0	209	276	282	558	73	289	28	8	256	59	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	40	37	7	1	0	0	3	11	0	0	0	189	250	216	466	27	269	28	8	256	29	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	114	16	0	0	49	179	0	0	0	190	251	216	467	27	270	28	8	256	29	-31	+0	+0	-4	+14	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	278	250	40	4	2	1	23	78	2	3	1	160	236	204	440	44	225	28	8	210	29	-8	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	93	9	5	2	54	182	5	7	2	159	236	202	438	43	224	28	8	210	29	-33	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafi Montesino (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	203/269/267	64	288	0	0	28%	7%	54	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Omar Meregildo 2018 · A	20	35→31	36→50	47→30	41	172/239/241	69	258	3	6	33%	7%	38	-3.2	197/255/307	110	316	10	3	38%	7%	59	-1.7	174/242/299	125	281	15	1	41%	7%	50	-1.2
✕Franklin Hernandez 2007 · A	20	40→36	36→45	45→40	42	189/246/257	68	265	3	5	28%	7%	43	-2.8	193/237/276	83	291	5	4	34%	5%	44	-2.8	183/219/273	90	269	6	2	33%	3%	33	-1.7
✕Kenny Hart 2010 · A	20	39	36→40	48→50	45	186/264/252	67	256	3	6	27%	7%	50	-2.3	191/282/272	81	245	5	11	23%	8%	61	-1.5	167/274/245	79	204	6	15	20%	8%	53	-0.6
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	39	36→40	50→55	44	186/249/258	71	249	3	12	26%	7%	45	-2.7	204/271/288	84	283	7	19	28%	7%	60	-1.6	202/282/289	86	263	10	29	26%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Nelson Medina 2021 · A	20	37	39→45	48→50	41	176/252/260	84	283	6	10	37%	8%	47	-2.5	192/274/286	94	292	6	14	33%	9%	61	-1.5	139/214/211	72	250	5	19	43%	8%	20	-1.4
✕Neyfy Castillo 2021 · A	20	39→33	37→45	54→55	39	187/245/260	73	279	3	11	32%	6%	43	-2.8	186/260/317	131	336	16	16	46%	8%	63	-1.3	173/250/304	131	303	16	19	45%	8%	53	-1.4
✕Aaron Familia 2019 · A	20	39	37→40	47→40	44	179/272/247	69	298	4	5	38%	9%	53	-2.1	195/267/281	86	350	6	5	42%	8%	57	-1.8	162/241/257	94	310	8	0	46%	9%	38	-0.8
✕Ronald Castillo 2012 · A	20	40	38→45	51→40	39	190/248/273	83	289	4	8	34%	6%	48	-2.5	216/254/294	78	293	3	5	26%	4%	53	-2.1	205/238/282	76	271	4	1	25%	4%	43	-1.2
✕Trenton Kemp 2016 · A	20	39	38→50	49→45	42	185/259/266	81	282	4	10	34%	8%	51	-2.3	196/253/323	127	337	12	8	42%	6%	61	-1.5	179/235/323	144	312	16	7	45%	6%	51	-0.8
✕Steven Mateo 2013 · A	20	38	35→30	45→50	47	180/265/239	59	261	3	6	30%	9%	47	-2.5	196/279/265	69	283	3	8	28%	10%	58	-1.7	192/270/254	63	279	2	6	29%	9%	49	-0.9
✕Albertson Asigen 2022 · A	20	41	38→40	53→55	45	197/253/283	86	255	5	6	24%	7%	51	-2.2	212/290/283	71	299	4	17	27%	9%	66	-1.1	209/299/294	85	336	7	27	36%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2013 · A	20	35	37→45	42→40	38	175/237/244	69	259	5	4	33%	6%	37	-3.3	206/258/298	92	286	7	4	29%	6%	57	-1.8	213/268/321	108	292	9	2	29%	6%	63	-0.6
✕Edison Sanchez 2011 · A	20	39	38→45	48→45	48	182/287/260	78	276	5	7	32%	10%	61	-1.5	190/265/282	92	300	7	4	36%	8%	57	-1.8	183/257/283	100	293	8	3	37%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	37→42	39→40	48→50	44	183/255/263	80	245	6	10	27%	7%	49	-2.4	199/291/294	95	292	8	8	32%	10%	70	-0.8	186/290/280	94	280	9	10	33%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Frank Rodriguez 2022 · A	20	40	36→45	48→30	44	190/262/257	67	265	4	4	28%	7%	50	-2.3	183/239/269	86	267	8	4	33%	5%	43	-2.8	183/244/267	84	241	9	1	27%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Yimmelvyn Alonzo 2017 · A	20	36	37→40	49→45	43	173/253/246	74	264	3	8	33%	8%	45	-2.7	180/276/269	89	275	5	8	33%	11%	59	-1.7	115/253/214	98	170	6	9	32%	14%	38	-1.0
✕Francisco Medina 2018 · A	20	37	36→40	45→40	41	181/239/241	60	254	5	5	29%	6%	37	-3.3	176/227/249	73	336	4	6	46%	6%	34	-3.5	134/179/211	77	253	5	6	47%	5%	5	-1.3
✕Jose Benjamin 2016 · A	20	37	35→40	48→50	49	173/258/232	59	222	2	7	22%	8%	43	-2.8	202/254/286	84	265	5	10	24%	5%	53	-2.1	205/249/296	92	265	5	12	24%	4%	52	-0.8
✕Ethan Workinger 2022 · A	20	38→41	40→45	50→45	37	182/243/274	92	287	7	6	37%	6%	47	-2.6	199/249/314	115	274	11	5	30%	6%	57	-1.8	198/253/321	123	239	15	9	24%	6%	58	-1.1