Carlos Matias

OF FCL Rays

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 195 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	182	.240/.366/.301	1	20	28	—	.158/.269/.204
2026	19	ROKTB	109	.240/.330/.323	1	7	22	—	.160/.229/.220
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBTB	219	.201/.264/.275	2	5	53	-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBTB	62	.208/.272/.293	1	1	60	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%71

Speed55

K%45

Whiff%43

wRC+40

ISO40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAndy Lugo (age 20) · Mishael Deson (age 20) · Ricardo Rosario (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 93 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .262 / .273

PA93

HR1

K%27

BB%6

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	166	146	36	7	1	3	15	37	4	7	0	247	333	370	703	123	308	22	9	319	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	146	35	6	0	1	20	26	9	20	6	240	366	301	667	62	274	14	11	306	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	109	96	23	5	0	1	10	24	3	7	1	240	330	323	653	83	310	22	9	303	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	166	150	23	4	1	1	11	45	4	7	0	153	230	213	444	60	203	27	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	152	24	4	0	1	14	31	9	20	6	158	269	204	473	46	174	17	8	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	109	100	16	3	0	1	6	35	3	7	1	160	229	220	449	60	233	32	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	166	150	23	4	1	1	11	45	4	7	0	153	230	213	444	60	210	27	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	166	146	36	7	1	3	15	37	4	7	0	247	333	370	703	123	308	22	9	319	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	152	24	4	0	1	14	31	9	20	6	158	269	204	473	46	184	17	8	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	146	35	6	0	1	20	26	9	20	6	240	366	301	667	62	274	14	11	306	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	109	100	16	3	0	1	6	35	3	7	1	160	229	220	449	60	234	32	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	109	96	23	5	0	1	10	24	3	7	1	240	330	323	653	83	310	22	9	303	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	166	150	23	4	1	1	11	45	4	7	0	153	230	213	444	60	203	27	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	157	24	4	0	1	14	31	9	20	6	153	269	197	466	45	174	17	8	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	109	99	16	3	0	1	6	35	3	7	1	162	229	222	452	61	233	32	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	166	150	23	4	1	1	11	45	4	7	0	153	230	213	444	60	203	27	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	182	157	24	4	0	1	14	31	9	20	6	153	269	197	466	45	174	17	8	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	109	99	16	3	0	1	6	35	3	7	1	162	229	222	452	61	233	32	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TB	0%	219	200	40	7	1	2	14	59	3	5	1	201	264	275	539	74	273	27	6	247	53	-12	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TB	34%	180	163	34	6	1	2	12	48	3	4	1	206	270	292	562	86	275	27	7	256	60	-9	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.6
2028	21	MLB CTX	TB	34%	62	57	12	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	208	272	293	565	84	279	26	6	258	60	-3	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	62	57	12	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	211	274	298	572	88	275	26	6	258	37	-3	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	125	21	0	10	42	168	10	10	0	209	272	294	567	85	274	26	6	258	37	-31	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	730	651	115	20	3	6	49	184	20	40	8	177	256	244	500	68	233	25	7	222	37	-14	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	103	18	3	5	44	164	18	36	7	178	257	245	502	67	235	25	7	222	37	-33	+2	+0	-4	+14	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Matias (OGILVIE)	20	40	20	60	40	199/262/273	73	273	1	2	27%	6%	53	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andy Lugo 2024 · A	20	45→44	36→40	55	42	211/259/279	68	260	4	15	20%	4%	53	-2.1	207/266/301	94	291	7	16	29%	6%	61	-1.5	194/260/292	98	276	8	17	31%	7%	54	-1.0
✕Mishael Deson 2022 · A	20	46	39→30	53→55	41	220/264/300	80	290	6	17	26%	6%	59	-1.7	219/282/281	62	354	4	11	36%	8%	62	-1.4	208/282/237	29	353	3	11	38%	9%	51	-1.2
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	39	36→40	50→55	44	186/249/258	71	249	3	12	26%	7%	45	-2.7	204/271/288	84	283	7	19	28%	7%	60	-1.6	202/282/289	86	263	10	29	26%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Mikey Edie 2017 · A	20	43	34→30	50	37	198/261/249	51	290	2	14	30%	5%	47	-2.5	216/266/279	63	314	2	13	30%	4%	55	-1.9	200/250/260	60	280	3	7	28%	3%	41	-1.5
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	40→39	40	52→50	42	194/257/287	92	271	7	14	30%	6%	55	-2.0	204/277/282	78	309	4	8	32%	9%	61	-1.5	194/278/266	72	301	3	7	33%	10%	55	-1.3
✕Adanson Cruz 2021 · A	20	45	37→40	52→50	45	211/283/292	81	298	4	9	28%	8%	65	-1.2	178/244/250	72	372	5	6	49%	7%	41	-3.0	148/219/207	58	306	4	6	49%	7%	21	-1.3
✕Albertson Asigen 2022 · A	20	41	38→40	53→55	45	197/253/283	86	255	5	6	24%	7%	51	-2.2	212/290/283	71	299	4	17	27%	9%	66	-1.1	209/299/294	85	336	7	27	36%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Esteban Mejia 2024 · A	19	39	36→40	55→50	41	188/242/257	68	263	3	15	28%	6%	41	-3.0	199/263/280	81	297	6	14	32%	7%	55	-1.9	196/265/273	77	287	7	15	32%	7%	52	-1.1
✕Glenn Santiago 2021 · A	20	41	36→40	54→45	48	191/268/264	73	243	2	13	21%	8%	54	-2.0	204/266/293	89	275	7	9	27%	7%	59	-1.6	185/249/263	77	271	7	8	32%	7%	44	-1.1
✕Mariel Bautista 2018 · A	20	45→36	36→40	54→50	42	212/261/281	69	267	3	15	21%	5%	53	-2.1	211/258/306	95	269	9	15	24%	4%	59	-1.7	196/242/302	106	253	12	16	27%	4%	51	-1.0
✕Erick Torres 2024 · A	19	44	36→30	53→50	47	209/272/282	74	262	3	15	21%	7%	59	-1.7	211/271/270	59	265	3	14	20%	7%	55	-1.9	213/271/263	50	265	3	15	20%	6%	51	-1.6
✕Angel Aponte 2021 · A	21	42	39→40	54→55	41	203/261/292	89	279	6	17	28%	6%	57	-1.8	206/263/297	91	296	7	20	31%	5%	59	-1.7	189/245/275	85	274	8	24	32%	5%	45	-1.0
✕Spence Coffman 2024 · A	20	45	36→30	54→55	44	207/272/277	70	305	3	10	31%	8%	57	-1.8	213/266/269	56	294	2	15	26%	6%	53	-2.1	219/269/249	30	290	0	22	23%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2010 · A	20	40	37→30	49→55	45	189/274/253	64	275	5	17	31%	8%	55	-2.0	200/259/279	79	339	6	8	40%	6%	53	-2.1	178/227/247	69	320	8	2	44%	5%	31	-1.0
✕Luis Andujar 2019 · A	19	40	36→30	53→50	41	189/245/254	65	270	3	9	30%	6%	42	-2.9	201/270/270	69	272	3	10	25%	8%	55	-1.9	192/273/252	60	253	1	12	22%	9%	53	-0.9
✕Cesar Gonzalez 2015 · A	20	42	36→40	54→60	43	195/260/262	67	275	2	19	28%	7%	49	-2.4	203/255/272	69	317	3	11	34%	6%	50	-2.3	184/229/215	32	332	0	4	42%	5%	23	-1.0
✕Raddy Sierra 2008 · A	20	40	39→40	51→55	42	193/266/277	84	278	6	17	31%	7%	56	-1.9	205/267/288	83	304	6	13	32%	6%	59	-1.7	207/262/261	54	318	0	16	32%	5%	48	-0.5
✕Luis Sanchez 2007 · A	20	41	36→30	50→40	41	195/253/261	66	275	4	7	29%	6%	47	-2.6	196/263/250	54	280	2	4	28%	8%	48	-2.5	198/256/242	45	274	1	2	26%	7%	41	-1.4
✕Frank Frias 2014 · A	20	44	37→30	52→55	48	205/293/280	76	289	5	20	28%	9%	68	-1.0	219/288/306	87	317	6	13	30%	8%	70	-0.8	227/294/318	91	329	7	13	31%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Daniel Padilla 2016 · A	19	44	35→30	52→55	44	207/262/261	54	265	3	14	22%	6%	49	-2.4	204/280/263	59	267	2	16	22%	9%	57	-1.8	188/286/229	41	238	0	27	18%	12%	53	-0.7