Rordy Mejia — OGILVIE

Rordy Mejia P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%20.7%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	11	4	21	88	16	7	4	36%	1.9	12.4%	9.9%	2.4%	7.0%	5.66	7.16	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	11	4	21	88	16	7	4	36%	1.9	12.4%	9.9%	2.4%	7.0%	5.66	7.16	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	11	4	21	88	16	7	4	36%	1.9	18.2%	8.0%	10.2%	4.5%	5.66	5.08	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	7	3	18	87	22	7	0	43%	2.6	17.2%	10.1%	7.1%	0.0%	7.36	2.92	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	7	3	18	87	22	7	0	43%	2.6	17.2%	10.1%	7.1%	0.0%	7.36	2.92	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	7	3	18	87	22	7	0	43%	2.6	25.3%	8.0%	17.2%	0.0%	7.36	1.85	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	37	0	62	280	60	31	13	0%	1.7	15.9%	13.1%	2.8%	6.0%	5.78	6.73	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	37	0	62	280	60	31	13	0%	1.7	15.9%	13.1%	2.8%	6.0%	5.78	6.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	SD	37	0	62	280	60	31	13	0%	1.7	21.4%	11.1%	10.4%	4.6%	5.78	5.24	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	61	0	64	270	59	25	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.46	4.39	+0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	63	0	66	280	64	24	8	0%	1.1	22.7%	8.7%	14.0%	2.9%	4.33	4.24	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	65	0	68	288	67	24	8	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	2.9%	4.23	4.15	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	66	0	69	291	69	24	8	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.3%	15.3%	2.8%	4.15	4.10	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	66	0	69	291	70	24	8	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	2.8%	4.11	4.08	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	65	0	68	287	69	24	8	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.4%	15.5%	2.9%	4.11	4.12	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	63	0	66	279	66	24	8	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.5%	15.2%	3.0%	4.16	4.20	+0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	60	0	63	266	63	23	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	3.1%	4.26	4.33	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	31	131	29	12	4	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	3.0%	4.50	4.43	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	46	0	48	203	46	18	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.7%	14.0%	3.0%	4.37	4.28	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	53	0	56	236	55	20	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	2.9%	4.27	4.19	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	58	0	61	258	61	22	8	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.3%	15.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.14	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	60	0	63	266	64	22	8	0%	1.1	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	2.9%	4.15	4.12	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	60	0	63	266	63	22	8	0%	1.1	23.9%	8.4%	15.5%	3.0%	4.15	4.16	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	59	0	62	262	62	22	8	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.5%	15.2%	3.1%	4.20	4.24	+0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	57	0	60	253	60	22	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	3.2%	4.30	4.37	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		424	0	445	1878	440	160	56	0%	1.0	23.4%	8.5%	14.9%	3.0%	4.25	3.85	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	72	25	0%	1.1	23.4%	8.5%	14.9%	3.0%	4.25	3.85	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		55	7	101	455	70	54	23	13%	1.8	15.4%	11.9%	3.6%	5.1%	6.04	6.08	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	14	200	898	139	107	46	13%	1.8	15.4%	11.9%	3.6%	5.1%	6.04	6.08	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rordy Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	20.7%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.26	22.6%	13.9%	198	-0.35	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	90
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	88
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	88
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	87
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	87
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	86
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	86
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	85
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	85
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	85
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	85
Gerlin Rosario R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.94	18.1%	5.4%	153	+1.15	3.02	248	84
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	84
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	84
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	84
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	84
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	84
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	84
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	84
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	61	23.3%	8.6%	1.13	4.23
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93