Blake Aita

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #865MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP45ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	19	115	3.98	3.63	21.4%	6.5%	—	K 16.2% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.57
2026	23	MIX2 levels	24	23	111	4.93	4.77	22.3%	8.1%	—	K 17.5% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.77
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	14	14	79	5.26	5.26	16.4%	8.2%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSTL	8	8	45	4.95	4.91	17.9%	8.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSTL	12	12	70	4.83	4.80	18.7%	7.9%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$0.6M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff47Control50Command55FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 84%

CompsPaul Rigdon (age 24) · Derek Gordon (age 24) · Riley Thompson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%16.4%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP79

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—50

CMD4555

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	115	463	99	30	13	83%	5.0	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	3.4%	3.98	4.57	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	115	463	99	30	13	83%	5.0	16.2%	7.5%	8.7%	3.4%	3.98	4.57	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	115	463	99	30	13	83%	5.0	21.4%	6.5%	14.9%	2.8%	3.98	3.63	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	111	494	110	40	22	96%	4.6	17.5%	9.2%	8.3%	5.4%	4.93	5.77	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	111	494	110	40	22	96%	4.6	17.5%	9.2%	8.3%	5.4%	4.93	5.77	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	111	494	110	40	22	96%	4.6	22.3%	8.1%	14.2%	4.5%	4.93	4.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	14	14	79	334	55	28	13	100%	5.6	16.4%	8.2%	8.2%	3.9%	5.26	5.26	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	105	444	79	35	17	100%	5.8	17.9%	8.0%	9.9%	3.8%	5.09	5.05	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	105	444	83	35	16	100%	5.8	18.7%	7.9%	10.8%	3.7%	4.97	4.94	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	104	437	83	35	16	100%	6.1	18.9%	8.0%	10.9%	3.7%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	100	424	80	34	16	100%	5.9	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	3.8%	4.97	5.01	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	96	405	75	34	16	100%	6.0	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	4.0%	5.07	5.14	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	90	380	69	33	16	100%	6.0	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	4.2%	5.22	5.32	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	45	190	34	15	7	100%	5.6	17.9%	8.0%	9.9%	3.5%	4.95	4.91	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	70	296	55	23	10	100%	5.8	18.7%	7.9%	10.8%	3.5%	4.83	4.80	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	80	338	64	27	12	100%	6.2	18.9%	8.0%	10.9%	3.5%	4.80	4.80	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	84	355	67	29	13	100%	6.0	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	3.5%	4.82	4.86	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	84	355	66	30	13	100%	6.0	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.7%	4.92	4.99	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	81	342	62	30	13	100%	5.8	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	3.9%	5.06	5.16	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	444	1877	349	154	67	100%	6.0	18.6%	8.2%	10.4%	3.6%	4.89	4.54	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	157	69	30	100%	6.0	18.6%	8.2%	10.4%	3.6%	4.89	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		47	42	227	957	161	80	43	89%	4.8	16.9%	8.4%	8.5%	4.5%	4.45	5.19	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	37	200	844	142	71	38	89%	4.8	16.9%	8.4%	8.5%	4.5%	4.45	5.19	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Aita (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	16.4%	8.2%	3.9%	—	4.98	18.5%	10.6%	314	-0.28	—	—	—
Paul Rigdon R 2000 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP	5.29	16.5%	7.9%	4.7%	.263	5.34	13.6%	2.5%	79	+0.05	5.29	167	90
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	88
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	88
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	87
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	87
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	87
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	86
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	86
Justin Vernia R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	23	SP-	5.27	17.0%	8.4%	4.6%	.296	4.46	14.7%	10.2%	79	-0.81	4.37	193	85
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	85
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	84
Taylor Buchholz R 2006 · 4.94 FIP	24	SP	4.94	16.1%	6.3%	4.4%	.245	3.30	17.8%	13.0%	160	-1.64	3.12	299	84
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	84
Zach Stewart R 2011 · 4.50 FIP	24	SP	4.50	15.2%	5.4%	3.6%	.351	7.14	11.3%	8.9%	36	+2.64	4.27	194	83
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	83
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	83
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	83
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	83
John Ely R 2010 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	17.7%	8.8%	2.7%	.306	4.38	23.2%	12.5%	13	+0.18	4.20	113	83
Anthony Swarzak R 2009 · 5.43 FIP	23	SP	5.43	12.7%	7.5%	4.5%	.317	4.19	13.7%	8.1%	199	-1.24	2.35	700	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	97	18.3%	8.2%	1.49	5.06
Hideki Irabu ('02)	2.6	103	18.1%	7.8%	1.59	5.15
Claudio Vargas ('10)	3.8	109	16.2%	8.7%	1.49	4.83
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.2	77	18.0%	8.1%	1.48	4.96
Boom-Boom Beck ('24-'45, 0 WAR*)	5.2	115	18.0%*	8.2%*	1.29*	5.01*
Allen Ripley ('78-'82, 1 WAR*)	2.3	93	17.2%*	7.5%*	1.41*	5.06*
Paul Moskau ('77-'83, 3 WAR*)	3.2	91	19.8%*	8.9%*	1.50*	4.84*