Carlos Bernal prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Carlos Bernal P DSL White Sox

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 188 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%23.0%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	13	0	12	54	15	6	0	0%	0.9	18.9%	13.9%	5.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.26	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	13	0	12	54	15	6	0	0%	0.9	18.9%	13.9%	5.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.26	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	13	0	12	54	15	6	0	0%	0.9	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	2.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	10.9%	12.1%	3.0%	4.56	4.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CWS	19	0	20	84	20	9	2	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.45	4.39	+0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	CWS	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.45	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.45	4.01	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.45	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		13	0	12	54	10	8	0	0%	0.9	18.9%	13.9%	5.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.26	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		217	0	200	900	170	125	0	0%	0.9	18.9%	13.9%	5.0%	0.0%	3.00	3.26	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Bernal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	23.0%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.39	23.4%	13.3%	20	-0.17	—	—	—
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	88
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	87
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	87
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	85
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.43	249	85
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	85
Felix Castro R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	19	SU	3.52	24.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.295	4.94	14.9%	-1.8%	97	+1.42	3.52	144	84
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	84
Jorge Julio R 2001 · 3.48 FIP	22	SU	3.48	22.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.348	4.31	20.4%	10.1%	199	+0.83	3.48	467	84
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	84
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	83
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	83
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	83
Robinson Hernandez R 2019 · 3.38 FIP	20	SU	3.38	19.6%	9.0%	1.4%	.328	4.41	17.5%	7.0%	102	+1.03	2.63	166	83
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	83
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	83
Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2023 · 3.57 FIP	20	SU	3.57	23.5%	13.2%	1.4%	.286	4.64	18.0%	7.8%	180	+1.07	3.57	204	83
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	82
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	82
Enmanuel Marcano R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	20	SU	4.32	21.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	138	82