Brayan Vergara — OGILVIE

Brayan Vergara P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 145 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%12.6%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%5.4%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	16	0	33	126	32	3	2	0%	2.1	17.3%	3.0%	14.3%	2.1%	1.91	3.16	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	16	0	33	126	32	3	2	0%	2.1	17.3%	3.0%	14.3%	2.1%	1.91	3.16	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	16	0	33	126	32	3	2	0%	2.1	25.4%	2.4%	23.0%	1.6%	1.91	2.22	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	5	55	222	38	12	3	38%	4.2	12.4%	6.2%	6.2%	2.4%	2.63	4.13	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	5	55	222	38	12	3	38%	4.2	12.4%	6.2%	6.2%	2.4%	2.63	4.13	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	5	55	222	38	12	3	38%	4.2	17.1%	5.4%	11.7%	1.4%	2.63	3.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	38	0	81	348	96	22	12	0%	2.1	20.4%	7.5%	13.0%	4.5%	4.67	4.78	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	38	0	81	348	96	22	12	0%	2.1	20.4%	7.5%	13.0%	4.5%	4.67	4.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	LAA	38	0	81	348	96	22	12	0%	2.1	27.6%	6.3%	21.3%	3.4%	4.67	3.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	LAA	79	0	83	352	52	25	10	0%	1.1	14.9%	7.2%	7.6%	2.9%	4.79	4.73	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	83	0	88	369	62	25	11	0%	1.1	16.8%	6.9%	9.9%	2.8%	4.60	4.50	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	86	0	91	383	69	25	11	0%	1.1	17.9%	6.6%	11.3%	2.8%	4.44	4.34	+0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	89	0	93	393	73	25	11	0%	1.0	18.6%	6.4%	12.2%	2.8%	4.33	4.25	+0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	90	0	94	398	76	25	11	0%	1.0	19.0%	6.3%	12.7%	2.8%	4.25	4.19	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	90	0	94	398	76	25	11	0%	1.0	19.2%	6.2%	12.9%	2.8%	4.20	4.17	+0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	88	0	93	392	75	25	11	0%	1.1	19.2%	6.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.21	4.21	+0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	86	0	90	380	72	25	11	0%	1.0	19.1%	6.5%	12.6%	2.9%	4.26	4.29	+0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	82	0	86	363	68	24	11	0%	1.0	18.8%	6.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.36	4.42	+0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	77	0	81	341	63	24	11	0%	1.0	18.5%	7.0%	11.5%	3.3%	4.50	4.60	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	LAA	39	0	41	173	26	13	5	0%	1.1	14.9%	7.2%	7.6%	3.0%	4.82	4.76	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	61	0	64	270	45	19	8	0%	1.0	16.8%	6.9%	9.9%	2.9%	4.63	4.53	+0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	73	0	77	325	58	21	9	0%	1.1	17.9%	6.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.47	4.37	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	79	0	83	350	65	22	10	0%	1.1	18.6%	6.4%	12.2%	2.8%	4.36	4.28	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	83	0	87	367	70	23	10	0%	1.0	19.0%	6.3%	12.7%	2.8%	4.28	4.22	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	84	0	88	372	71	23	10	0%	1.0	19.2%	6.2%	12.9%	2.8%	4.23	4.20	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	84	0	88	372	71	24	11	0%	1.0	19.2%	6.3%	12.8%	2.9%	4.24	4.24	+0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	82	0	86	363	69	24	11	0%	1.0	19.1%	6.5%	12.6%	3.0%	4.29	4.32	+0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	78	0	82	346	65	23	11	0%	1.1	18.8%	6.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.39	4.45	+0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	73	0	77	325	60	23	11	0%	1.1	18.5%	7.0%	11.5%	3.3%	4.54	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		734	0	771	3255	600	214	96	0%	1.1	18.4%	6.6%	11.9%	2.9%	4.39	3.99	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	56	25	0%	1.1	18.4%	6.6%	11.9%	2.9%	4.39	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		67	5	169	696	120	43	23	7%	2.5	17.3%	6.2%	11.1%	3.4%	3.47	4.28	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	6	200	825	143	51	28	7%	2.5	17.3%	6.2%	11.1%	3.4%	3.47	4.28	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Vergara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	12.6%	7.3%	3.0%	—	4.52	16.6%	9.7%	262	-0.43	—	—	—
Bryan Bonnell R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	21	SU	4.55	8.8%	6.1%	2.6%	.298	4.63	17.2%	9.1%	170	+0.08	3.55	333	89
Marco Antonio Rivas R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	20	SU	4.55	11.3%	6.9%	2.8%	.339	4.17	12.4%	7.6%	100	-0.38	3.94	197	88
Xavier Altamirano R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	21	SU	5.11	10.4%	6.7%	3.7%	.252	4.15	14.8%	7.6%	284	-0.96	3.91	451	87
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	87
Wilmer Contreras R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	20	SU	4.36	11.1%	8.3%	2.1%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	102	86
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	85
Kevin Velasco R 2023 · 4.46 FIP	17	SW	4.46	12.7%	5.8%	3.1%	.338	3.61	19.3%	8.5%	93	-0.85	2.18	118	85
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	84
Jose Rojas R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	19	SU	4.29	10.0%	7.5%	2.0%	.282	3.83	13.1%	6.9%	39	-0.46	3.83	153	84
Steven Sanchez R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	19	SU	4.23	12.1%	4.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	15.5%	6.7%	64	-0.33	3.07	161	84
Joseilyn Gonzalez R 2022 · 4.98 FIP	20	SU	4.98	14.5%	8.5%	3.7%	.321	5.20	14.5%	-3.2%	107	+0.22	4.98	168	84
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	84
Luis Payan R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	21	SU	3.99	13.8%	6.7%	2.2%	.360	4.08	16.0%	9.8%	79	+0.09	3.99	134	84
Jordano Perez R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	20	SU	4.80	10.1%	7.9%	2.8%	.358	3.64	15.4%	8.6%	46	-1.16	3.27	110	83
Diego Cordero R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	19	SU	3.95	11.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.237	4.65	13.8%	3.5%	28	+0.70	2.55	126	83
Reudis Diaz R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	17	SU	3.94	10.4%	6.4%	1.7%	.308	3.38	13.4%	4.8%	79	-0.56	3.13	109	83
Eddy Demurias R 2018 · 4.04 FIP	20	SU	4.04	13.2%	6.8%	2.2%	.326	3.80	17.0%	7.0%	119	-0.24	2.75	242	83
Brayan Palencia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	20	SW	5.04	12.8%	8.9%	3.4%	.326	4.92	14.1%	5.1%	155	-0.12	2.12	261	83
Bryce Tassin R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	22	SU	4.63	12.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.231	3.46	16.0%	8.5%	100	-1.17	3.03	206	83
Matt Hardy R 2017 · 5.36 FIP	22	SU	5.36	13.7%	7.9%	4.4%	.339	3.70	18.2%	10.8%	129	-1.66	3.18	242	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	84	18.0%	6.6%	1.12	4.41
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14