Kaleb Sophy — OGILVIE

Kaleb Sophy P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 70 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144152vR 160

ERA6.69

FIP6.69

K%10.4%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-9.6%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	16	15	56	255	35	48	1	94%	3.5	10.2%	22.2%	-12.1%	0.6%	5.66	5.38	—
2025	24	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	16	15	56	255	35	48	1	94%	3.5	10.2%	22.2%	-12.1%	0.6%	5.66	5.38	—
2025	24	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	16	15	56	255	35	48	1	94%	3.5	13.7%	18.8%	-5.1%	0.4%	5.66	4.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CWS	12	12	70	296	31	59	8	100%	5.8	10.4%	20.0%	-9.6%	2.8%	6.69	6.69	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	69	291	34	55	8	100%	5.8	11.7%	19.0%	-7.3%	2.9%	6.48	6.49	-1.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	67	282	35	52	9	100%	6.1	12.4%	18.4%	-6.0%	3.0%	6.38	6.42	-1.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	64	270	34	49	9	100%	5.8	12.7%	18.2%	-5.4%	3.2%	6.37	6.44	-1.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	4	4	25	106	12	20	3	100%	6.2	11.7%	19.0%	-7.3%	2.9%	6.48	6.49	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	39	165	20	30	5	100%	6.5	12.4%	18.4%	-6.0%	3.0%	6.38	6.42	-0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	45	190	24	35	6	100%	5.6	12.7%	18.2%	-5.4%	3.2%	6.37	6.44	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	109	461	57	85	14	100%	6.1	12.4%	18.5%	-6.1%	3.0%	6.40	6.07	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	104	156	26	100%	6.0	12.4%	18.5%	-6.1%	3.0%	6.40	6.07	-2.5
Career	—	MLE		16	15	56	255	26	57	2	94%	3.5	10.2%	22.2%	-12.1%	0.6%	5.66	5.38	-3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	54	200	916	93	203	5	94%	3.5	10.2%	22.2%	-12.1%	0.6%	5.66	5.38	-3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kaleb Sophy (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.69	10.4%	20.0%	2.8%	—	6.45	12.3%	-6.3%	200	-0.24	—	—	—
Jake Miednik L 2022 · 6.12 FIP	26	SP-	6.12	10.5%	14.6%	3.8%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	1.55	126	72
Mark Reyes L 2017 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.9%	17.0%	2.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	378	70
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	63
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	63
Bernardo Flores Jr. L 2022 · 5.50 FIP	26	SP	5.50	13.5%	14.8%	3.0%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	478	61
Phil Dumatrait L 2007 · 7.00 FIP	26	SP	7.00	8.7%	11.5%	5.8%	.429	4.87	14.2%	2.0%	92	-2.13	4.39	151	60
Nick Bierbrodt L 2004 · 7.74 FIP	26	SP	7.74	12.3%	23.5%	4.9%	.208	—	—	—	—	—	5.15	145	60
Tommy Sommer L 2023 · 6.99 FIP	24	SP	6.99	16.7%	16.4%	5.9%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	230	57
Bryan Sammons L 2021 · 6.16 FIP	26	SP-	6.16	17.0%	13.4%	5.1%	.276	5.52	20.7%	11.5%	261	-0.64	3.58	688	57
Adam Loewen L 2008 · 6.87 FIP	24	SP-	6.87	13.7%	17.6%	4.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	340	56
Eddie Campbell L 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP	6.31	13.7%	17.5%	3.9%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	250	56
Randy Keisler L 2001 · 6.43 FIP	25	SP	6.43	15.3%	14.4%	5.1%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	135	55
Ian Clarkin L 2021 · 6.28 FIP	26	SP-	6.28	8.3%	12.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	335	54
Aaron Rozek L 2022 · 5.95 FIP	26	SP	5.95	15.9%	9.1%	5.5%	.305	4.27	17.1%	9.8%	317	-1.68	3.68	579	50
Tom Gorzelanny L 2008 · 6.00 FIP	26	SP	6.00	13.7%	14.3%	4.1%	.300	3.86	20.8%	12.2%	288	-2.14	2.67	899	49
Carlos Hernández L 2004 · 6.48 FIP	24	SP	6.48	13.0%	11.5%	5.5%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	171	49
Mike Kickham L 2015 · 6.80 FIP	26	SW	6.80	10.4%	27.2%	2.1%	.222	3.62	16.6%	12.0%	194	-3.18	3.00	397	48
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	48
Josh Hendrickson L 2023 · 6.25 FIP	25	SP	6.25	14.7%	10.3%	5.6%	.305	4.39	18.9%	13.9%	114	-1.86	3.80	368	47
Eric Skoglund L 2019 · 5.72 FIP	26	SP	5.72	11.0%	7.1%	4.8%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	513	46

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	11.8%	18.9%	1.15	6.48
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57