Matt Gabbert
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA4.18
FIP4.18
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%14.2%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 13 | 4 | 39 | 165 | 49 | 15 | 2 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 1.4% | 3.43 | 3.58 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 24 | 6 | 66 | 257 | 55 | 5 | 4 | 15.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.26 | 3.21 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 55 | 18 | 7 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 57 | 19 | 8 | 21.9% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.14 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 58 | 19 | 8 | 22.2% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.13 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 57 | 19 | 8 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 57 | 19 | 8 | 22.3% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 55 | 19 | 7 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 22.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 50 | 18 | 7 | 21.7% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 48 | 18 | 7 | 21.5% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 45 | 17 | 7 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 42 | 17 | 7 | 20.8% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 39 | 16 | 7 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 10 | 106 | 422 | 75 | 25 | 8 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 3.32 | 3.35 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 19 | 200 | 799 | 142 | 47 | 15 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 3.32 | 3.35 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Gabbert (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.14 | 22.2% | 14.8% | 184 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 96 |
| Silvino Bracho R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.94 | 20.9% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .316 | 3.72 | 29.0% | 20.6% | 121 | -0.22 | 2.48 | 395 | 93 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 92 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 91 |
| Nick Merkel R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 91 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 91 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.90 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .311 | 6.77 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.87 | 3.90 | 106 | 91 |
| Casey Cobb R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 91 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 90 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2025 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .295 | 3.40 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.19 | 2.03 | 164 | 90 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 174 | 89 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 17.8% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .295 | 3.25 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 190 | -1.00 | 2.79 | 280 | 89 |
| Luke Murphy R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.55 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .317 | 5.29 | 18.6% | 8.0% | 45 | +1.74 | 3.14 | 192 | 89 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.79 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.94 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 55 | +0.15 | 3.78 | 178 | 89 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.16 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.57 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.41 | 3.16 | 153 | 88 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 88 |
| John Stankiewicz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.90 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .251 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 107 | +0.61 | 2.78 | 262 | 88 |
| Ben Bracewell R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.19 | 19.0% | 6.3% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.96 | 14.7% | 7.4% | 350 | +0.77 | 3.19 | 538 | 88 |
| J.R. Graham R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $6M | $11M | +$6M | ||