Matt Gabbert
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.19
FIP4.19
K%21.3%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 39 | 165 | 49 | 15 | 2 | 31% | 3.0 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 1.4% | 3.43 | 3.62 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 39 | 165 | 49 | 15 | 2 | 31% | 3.0 | 29.7% | 9.1% | 20.6% | 1.2% | 3.43 | 2.41 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 6 | 66 | 257 | 55 | 5 | 4 | 25% | 2.8 | 15.9% | 2.3% | 13.5% | 2.2% | 3.26 | 3.27 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 6 | 66 | 257 | 55 | 5 | 4 | 25% | 2.8 | 21.4% | 1.9% | 19.5% | 1.6% | 3.26 | 2.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 7.2% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 7.5% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 39 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 7.7% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 7.2% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 7.5% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 33 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 7.7% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 109 | 0 | 114 | 483 | 107 | 36 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 3.82 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 63 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 37 | 10 | 106 | 422 | 75 | 25 | 8 | 27% | 2.9 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 3.32 | 3.41 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 19 | 200 | 799 | 143 | 48 | 15 | 27% | 2.9 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 3.32 | 3.41 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Gabbert (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.16 | 22.2% | 14.8% | 128 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 89 |
| Connor Schultz R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | .283 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 124 | -0.19 | 3.47 | 171 | 85 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 82 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 81 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 80 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .318 | 3.98 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 61 | -0.28 | 2.79 | 229 | 80 |
| Jake Curtis R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.34 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.9% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 105 | 80 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 80 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 80 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 79 |
| Casey Cobb R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.72 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +1.99 | 3.73 | 191 | 79 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 79 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 78 |
| Alex Valverde R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .321 | 6.00 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 166 | +2.28 | 3.72 | 423 | 77 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 77 |
| Diego Granado R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.26 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .335 | 4.40 | 15.5% | 1.1% | 40 | -0.86 | 4.40 | 110 | 77 |
| Nick Merkel R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .284 | 3.25 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 125 | -0.65 | 3.08 | 201 | 77 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 77 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 76 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 42 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 1.15 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Nick Vincent ('20) | 6 | 45 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.13 | 3.71 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |