Matt Gabbert — OGILVIE

Matt Gabbert P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.03

FIP4.03

K%18.4%

BB%3.9%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	39	165	49	15	2	31%	3.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.2%	1.3%	3.43	3.54	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	39	165	49	15	2	31%	3.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.2%	1.3%	3.43	3.54	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	4	39	165	49	15	2	31%	3.0	29.7%	9.1%	20.6%	1.2%	3.43	2.41	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	6	66	257	55	5	4	25%	2.8	15.9%	2.3%	13.5%	2.1%	3.26	3.20	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	6	66	257	55	5	4	25%	2.8	15.9%	2.3%	13.5%	2.1%	3.26	3.20	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	6	66	257	55	5	4	25%	2.8	21.4%	1.9%	19.5%	1.6%	3.26	2.45	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	MIN	4	0	4	17	3	1	0	0%	1.0	18.4%	3.9%	14.4%	2.9%	4.03	4.03	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	58	0	60	255	50	11	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	4.3%	15.3%	2.9%	4.00	3.97	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	58	0	60	255	52	12	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	4.6%	15.7%	2.9%	3.98	3.95	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	57	0	60	251	51	12	7	0%	1.0	20.4%	4.9%	15.5%	3.0%	4.01	4.01	+0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	25	0	26	110	22	5	3	0%	1.0	19.6%	4.3%	15.3%	2.9%	4.00	3.97	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	38	0	40	169	34	8	5	0%	1.1	20.3%	4.6%	15.7%	2.9%	3.98	3.95	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	44	0	46	194	40	10	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	4.9%	15.5%	3.0%	4.01	4.01	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	0	112	473	96	22	14	0%	1.0	20.2%	4.7%	15.5%	2.9%	4.00	3.60	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	39	25	0%	1.1	20.2%	4.7%	15.5%	2.9%	4.00	3.60	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		37	10	106	422	75	25	8	27%	2.9	17.8%	6.0%	11.8%	1.8%	3.32	3.33	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	19	200	799	143	48	14	27%	2.9	17.8%	6.0%	11.8%	1.8%	3.32	3.33	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Gabbert (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	18.4%	3.9%	2.9%	—	3.98	20.1%	15.5%	180	-0.05	—	—	—
Reinier Roibal R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	26	SU	3.11	19.1%	4.5%	1.9%	.262	4.37	16.9%	9.8%	35	+1.26	3.11	133	80
Aaron West R 2015 · 3.06 FIP	25	SU	3.06	16.2%	3.2%	1.7%	.307	2.85	15.2%	11.2%	150	-0.21	2.80	235	80
Joe Broussard R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	24	SU	3.07	18.1%	4.9%	1.6%	.333	3.14	23.2%	15.9%	192	+0.07	2.62	304	76
Micah Dallas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	15.1%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	4.23	18.2%	9.5%	152	-0.33	3.60	201	76
Landon Harper R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	22	SU	3.68	17.2%	4.4%	2.7%	.299	4.46	18.3%	13.2%	185	+0.78	3.68	258	76
Chris Powell R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	24	SU	3.53	18.8%	3.7%	2.8%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	102	76
Miller Hogan R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	23	SW	3.39	18.4%	3.4%	2.6%	.294	4.94	19.3%	14.1%	89	+1.55	3.39	168	75
Ty Weber R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	24	SU	4.08	15.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.288	6.31	8.7%	-1.1%	28	+2.23	4.08	144	75
Cameron Cotter R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	17.2%	2.7%	3.3%	.302	3.40	17.5%	11.2%	96	-0.39	2.86	128	75
Casey Cobb R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	21.8%	6.2%	2.6%	.261	5.59	17.2%	8.3%	118	+2.11	3.48	191	75
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	75
Scooter Hightower R 2018 · 2.86 FIP	24	SW	2.86	19.6%	5.0%	1.4%	.270	6.75	8.9%	2.0%	43	+3.89	2.86	160	75
Jack Labosky R 2019 · 3.09 FIP	23	SU	3.09	14.8%	3.1%	1.5%	.295	5.39	19.0%	13.9%	79	+2.30	3.09	145	74
Wilmer Rios R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	23	SW	4.95	16.3%	5.8%	4.5%	.265	5.25	16.2%	12.3%	80	+0.30	2.81	156	74
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	74
Jaycob Deese R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	17.4%	6.8%	4.0%	.309	4.83	13.6%	4.4%	140	+0.15	3.28	208	73
Adam Panayotovich R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	24	SW	3.50	13.3%	4.6%	1.7%	.314	5.45	9.6%	0.6%	64	+1.95	3.50	121	73
Eric Karch R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	16.0%	6.2%	2.3%	.324	4.70	20.3%	16.1%	35	+0.92	3.78	104	72
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	72
Kolton Mahoney R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	17.1%	4.4%	2.6%	.312	3.73	16.9%	9.5%	198	+0.11	3.56	302	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	19.8%	4.5%	1.13	4.00
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75