Cade Denton — OGILVIE

Cade Denton P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%20.8%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	10	49	12	3	1	0%	1.2	24.5%	6.1%	18.4%	2.0%	10.80	2.93	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	10	49	12	3	1	0%	1.2	24.5%	6.1%	18.4%	2.0%	10.80	2.93	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	10	49	12	3	1	0%	1.2	24.5%	6.1%	18.4%	2.0%	10.80	2.90	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	40	171	33	11	2	0%	1.2	13.8%	6.7%	7.1%	1.1%	3.63	3.36	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	40	171	33	11	2	0%	1.2	13.8%	6.7%	7.1%	1.1%	3.63	3.36	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	40	171	33	11	2	0%	1.2	19.3%	6.4%	12.9%	1.2%	3.63	2.92	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	42	0	51	224	63	17	8	0%	1.2	21.7%	8.7%	12.9%	4.5%	3.73	4.83	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	42	0	51	224	63	17	8	0%	1.2	21.7%	8.7%	12.9%	4.5%	3.73	4.83	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	42	0	51	224	63	17	8	0%	1.2	28.1%	7.6%	20.5%	3.6%	3.73	3.67	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	39	3	83	355	80	30	11	8%	2.1	18.3%	9.3%	9.0%	3.7%	4.88	4.78	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	39	3	83	355	80	30	11	8%	2.1	18.3%	9.3%	9.0%	3.7%	4.88	4.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	COL	39	3	83	355	80	30	11	8%	2.1	22.5%	8.5%	14.1%	3.1%	4.88	3.97	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	COL	6	0	6	26	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.7%	12.2%	3.2%	4.56	4.56	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	89	381	85	32	12	—	—	22.4%	8.5%	14.0%	3.1%	4.86	4.76	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	78	0	82	347	74	29	11	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	3.1%	4.49	4.47	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	78	0	82	347	75	29	11	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.3%	13.2%	3.1%	4.45	4.43	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	77	0	81	342	74	29	11	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	3.2%	4.45	4.46	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	75	0	79	332	78	26	11	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.7%	15.8%	3.3%	4.34	4.27	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	72	0	75	318	74	25	11	0%	1.0	23.2%	7.9%	15.3%	3.4%	4.38	4.40	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	67	0	71	299	68	25	11	0%	1.1	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	3.6%	4.50	4.58	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	34	0	36	152	32	13	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	3.1%	4.49	4.47	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	52	0	55	232	50	19	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.3%	13.2%	3.1%	4.45	4.43	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	60	0	63	266	57	22	8	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	3.2%	4.45	4.46	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	63	0	66	279	65	21	9	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.7%	15.8%	3.3%	4.34	4.27	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	63	0	66	279	65	22	10	0%	1.0	23.2%	7.9%	15.3%	3.4%	4.38	4.40	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	61	0	64	270	62	22	10	0%	1.0	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	3.6%	4.50	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		333	0	350	1478	332	120	49	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.1%	14.3%	3.3%	4.43	4.05	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	69	28	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.1%	14.3%	3.3%	4.43	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		123	3	183	799	149	67	26	2%	1.5	18.6%	8.4%	10.3%	3.3%	4.61	4.38	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	3	200	872	163	73	28	2%	1.5	18.6%	8.4%	10.3%	3.3%	4.61	4.38	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Denton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	20.8%	8.7%	3.2%	—	4.45	21.5%	13.1%	246	-0.11	—	—	—
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	95
Kaleb Fontenot R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.77	3.71	155	90
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	89
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	89
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	89
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	88
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	88
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	88
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	88
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	88
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	88
Mick VanVossen R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	24	SU	4.25	18.6%	8.9%	2.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	141	87
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	87
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	86
John Stankiewicz R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	19.3%	6.6%	2.9%	.251	4.47	16.2%	7.1%	107	+0.56	2.78	271	86
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	86
Rob Griswold R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	16.8%	8.3%	3.2%	.244	4.34	12.5%	6.2%	144	-0.13	3.57	203	86
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	77	22.1%	8.2%	1.27	4.45
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19