Alan Reyes — OGILVIE

Alan Reyes P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 25 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%21.5%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	16	0	27	114	28	9	1	0%	1.7	16.7%	9.9%	6.8%	0.9%	3.33	3.46	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	16	0	27	114	28	9	1	0%	1.7	16.7%	9.9%	6.8%	0.9%	3.33	3.46	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	16	0	27	114	28	9	1	0%	1.7	24.6%	7.9%	16.7%	0.9%	3.33	2.51	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	47	203	52	16	2	4%	1.8	18.2%	9.6%	8.6%	1.3%	1.52	3.50	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	47	203	52	16	2	4%	1.8	18.2%	9.6%	8.6%	1.3%	1.52	3.50	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	47	203	52	16	2	4%	1.8	25.6%	7.9%	17.7%	1.0%	1.52	2.47	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	12	52	9	6	2	17%	1.9	17.3%	11.5%	5.8%	3.8%	3.09	5.21	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	12	52	9	6	2	17%	1.9	17.3%	11.5%	5.8%	3.8%	3.09	5.21	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	12	52	9	6	2	17%	1.9	17.3%	11.5%	5.8%	3.8%	3.09	5.33	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	24	0	25	106	23	10	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.5%	12.0%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	42	0	44	185	41	17	5	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.1%	13.2%	2.9%	4.40	4.35	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	18	0	19	80	18	7	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.1%	13.2%	2.9%	4.40	4.35	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	79	18	7	2	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.1%	13.2%	2.9%	4.40	3.97	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	75	21	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.1%	13.2%	2.9%	4.40	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		49	2	86	369	65	37	6	4%	1.8	17.6%	10.0%	7.6%	1.6%	2.30	3.73	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	5	200	858	151	85	13	4%	1.8	17.6%	10.0%	7.6%	1.6%	2.30	3.73	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alan Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	21.5%	9.5%	2.9%	—	4.35	22.3%	13.2%	44	-0.13	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	94
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	90
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	89
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	89
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	88
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	87
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	87
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	87
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	87
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	87
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	87
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	86
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	86
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	86
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	86
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	22.0%	9.2%	1.13	4.43
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16