Alan Reyes
P
FCL Cardinals
+0.2
WAR
Age 22
RHP
5'11" / 180 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2028
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.2%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 16 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 28 | 9 | 1 | 16.7% | 9.9% | 0.8% | 3.33 | 3.39 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 27 | 1 | 47 | 203 | 52 | 16 | 2 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 1.3% | 1.52 | 3.50 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | STL | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | STL | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 23.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | STL | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | STL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | STL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | STL | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | STL | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | STL | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | STL | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | STL | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | STL | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | STL | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | STL | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 1 | 74 | 317 | 56 | 31 | 4 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 2.18 | 3.46 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 3 | 200 | 853 | 151 | 83 | 11 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 2.18 | 3.46 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alan Reyes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.11 | 23.8% | 15.2% | 110 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 95 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 95 |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 92 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 92 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 92 |
| Corey Copping R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.13 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .265 | 4.57 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 179 | +0.44 | 3.39 | 214 | 91 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 91 |
| Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 90 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 90 |
| Tyler Bray R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 90 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.10 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .309 | 4.62 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.52 | 4.10 | 215 | 90 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.54 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.27 | 3.27 | 128 | 89 |
| Collin Kober R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.39 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .268 | 2.76 | 24.0% | 17.9% | 128 | -0.63 | 2.38 | 294 | 89 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 89 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.49 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.03 | 3.09 | 213 | 89 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.37 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .350 | 4.28 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.91 | 2.93 | 103 | 89 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 89 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.78 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .341 | 4.02 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.24 | 3.40 | 259 | 89 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 89 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .241 | 5.00 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 108 | +1.17 | 3.83 | 144 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $8M | +$4M | ||