Nolan Santos — OGILVIE

Nolan Santos P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%21.7%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	6	28	4	6	0	20%	1.3	14.3%	21.4%	-7.1%	0.0%	2.84	4.61	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	6	28	4	6	0	20%	1.3	14.3%	21.4%	-7.1%	0.0%	2.84	4.61	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	6	28	4	6	0	20%	1.3	14.3%	21.4%	-7.1%	0.0%	2.84	4.68	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	68	286	80	26	2	0%	1.6	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	0.8%	2.93	3.15	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	68	286	80	26	2	0%	1.6	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	0.8%	2.93	3.15	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	68	286	80	26	2	0%	1.6	28.0%	9.1%	18.9%	0.7%	2.93	2.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	23	3	44	229	40	38	4	13%	1.9	13.4%	19.1%	-5.6%	2.2%	7.31	5.58	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	23	3	44	229	40	38	4	13%	1.9	13.4%	19.1%	-5.6%	2.2%	7.31	5.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	MIN	23	3	44	229	40	38	4	13%	1.9	17.5%	16.6%	0.9%	1.7%	7.31	4.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIN	58	0	61	257	57	26	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	2.8%	4.47	4.46	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	57	0	60	253	56	26	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.49	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIN	25	0	26	110	24	11	3	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	2.8%	4.47	4.46	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	36	0	38	160	36	16	5	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	270	60	27	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.09	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	84	25	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.09	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		71	4	118	543	95	80	7	6%	1.7	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	1.4%	4.56	4.25	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	7	200	918	160	136	13	6%	1.7	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	1.4%	4.56	4.25	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	21.7%	10.3%	2.8%	—	4.47	22.1%	12.0%	121	-0.03	—	—	—
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	91
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	89
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	89
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	87
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	86
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	86
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	86
Dusty Isaacs R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	23.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.255	4.62	21.6%	9.9%	86	+0.62	3.16	253	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	85
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	85
Guido Knudson R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	25	SU	3.50	20.7%	11.1%	1.4%	.255	4.69	17.5%	6.7%	47	+1.19	3.50	106	85
Matt Pierpont R 2016 · 3.51 FIP	25	SU	3.51	20.7%	8.6%	1.9%	.295	3.41	21.6%	13.6%	156	-0.10	2.76	280	85
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	84
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	84
Gavin Hollowell R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	21.2%	10.1%	3.6%	.273	3.91	25.3%	12.6%	98	-0.64	2.41	226	84
Darin Gillies R 2018 · 4.81 FIP	25	SU	4.81	22.2%	10.2%	4.2%	.294	4.83	23.2%	12.8%	106	+0.02	4.22	295	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	22.0%	10.2%	1.11	4.48
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21