Nolan Santos
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117107vR 98
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
K%22.9%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 20% | 1.3 | 14.3% | 21.4% | -7.1% | 0.0% | 2.84 | 4.61 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 20% | 1.3 | 14.3% | 21.4% | -7.1% | 0.0% | 2.84 | 4.68 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 80 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 0.8% | 2.93 | 3.13 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 80 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.0% | 9.1% | 18.9% | 0.7% | 2.93 | 2.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 19 | 3 | 39 | 202 | 38 | 36 | 3 | 16% | 2.0 | 14.5% | 20.5% | -6.0% | 1.9% | 7.45 | 5.49 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.29 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 86 | 402 | 84 | 55 | 9 | — | — | 20.8% | 13.6% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 5.71 | 4.83 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 3.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 44 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 80 | 0 | 84 | 355 | 82 | 34 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 3.96 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 81 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 4 | 113 | 516 | 93 | 78 | 6 | 6% | 1.7 | 18.0% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 4.47 | 4.14 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 7 | 200 | 916 | 165 | 138 | 11 | 6% | 1.7 | 18.0% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 4.47 | 4.14 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nolan Santos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.33 | 23.1% | 13.6% | 139 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 90 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 90 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 87 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .286 | 6.43 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 24 | +2.19 | 4.09 | 183 | 86 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 86 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 85 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 85 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 85 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.81 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.69 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.88 | 3.16 | 253 | 84 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.04 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.57 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.47 | 3.26 | 386 | 84 |
| Miguel Sánchez R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.68 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .305 | 4.77 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 83 | +1.09 | 2.54 | 309 | 84 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 84 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.88 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 167 | +0.74 | 3.34 | 334 | 84 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.24 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .274 | 4.67 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 38 | +1.43 | 3.24 | 172 | 84 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .284 | 3.25 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 125 | -0.65 | 3.08 | 201 | 84 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .257 | 2.89 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.54 | 2.31 | 225 | 84 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 84 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.42 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.8% | .295 | 3.26 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.66 | 280 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.31 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |