Merrick Baldo — OGILVIE

Merrick Baldo P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%18.2%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%4.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	18	72	14	4	0	0%	1.8	15.5%	7.0%	8.4%	0.0%	1.50	2.69	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	18	72	14	4	0	0%	1.8	15.5%	7.0%	8.4%	0.0%	1.50	2.69	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	18	72	14	4	0	0%	1.8	19.4%	5.6%	13.9%	0.0%	1.50	2.21	—
2024	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	37	0	45	202	56	22	5	0%	1.2	20.5%	12.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.20	4.63	—
2024	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	37	0	45	202	56	22	5	0%	1.2	20.5%	12.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.20	4.63	—
2024	24	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	37	0	45	202	56	22	5	0%	1.2	27.7%	10.9%	16.8%	2.5%	4.20	3.52	—
2025	25	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	46	0	54	230	57	24	5	0%	1.2	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	2.7%	3.33	4.60	—
2025	25	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	46	0	54	230	57	24	5	0%	1.2	18.3%	12.3%	6.0%	2.7%	3.33	4.60	—
2025	25	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	46	0	54	230	57	24	5	0%	1.2	24.8%	10.4%	14.3%	2.2%	3.33	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	32	0	52	224	49	14	6	0%	1.6	16.8%	7.2%	9.7%	3.3%	4.13	4.43	—
YTD	26	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	32	0	52	224	49	14	6	0%	1.6	16.8%	7.2%	9.7%	3.3%	4.13	4.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	WSH	32	0	52	224	49	14	6	0%	1.6	21.9%	6.2%	15.6%	2.7%	4.13	3.51	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	4	3	1	0%	1.1	18.2%	13.4%	4.8%	3.0%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	58	247	53	17	7	—	—	21.5%	6.9%	14.6%	2.7%	4.23	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	66	0	69	291	54	38	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	3.0%	5.19	5.20	-0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	64	0	67	282	53	36	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.9%	6.0%	3.1%	5.18	5.22	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	270	51	35	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.9%	6.0%	3.3%	5.24	5.31	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	24	0	25	106	20	14	3	0%	1.0	18.7%	13.0%	5.7%	3.0%	5.19	5.20	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	37	0	39	165	31	21	5	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.9%	6.0%	3.1%	5.18	5.22	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	43	0	45	190	36	25	6	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.9%	6.0%	3.3%	5.24	5.31	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	0	110	463	87	60	15	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.9%	5.9%	3.1%	5.21	4.87	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	109	27	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.9%	5.9%	3.1%	5.21	4.87	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		125	0	169	728	132	75	20	0%	1.4	18.2%	10.4%	7.8%	2.7%	3.61	4.37	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	0	200	860	156	89	23	0%	1.4	18.2%	10.4%	7.8%	2.7%	3.61	4.37	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Merrick Baldo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	18.2%	13.4%	3.0%	—	5.24	18.8%	5.9%	200	-0.02	—	—	—
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	90
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	89
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	88
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	88
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	87
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	86
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	86
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	86
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	85
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	84
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	84
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	84
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	83
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	83
Chris Jefferson R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	16.6%	11.8%	2.3%	.333	5.65	16.4%	2.8%	46	+1.20	3.53	140	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	18.7%	13.0%	1.19	5.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91