Ariel Armas

C Knoxville Smokies

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #367MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2029FG ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	A+CHC	381	.234/.326/.347	5	11	49	—	.194/.266/.283
2026	23	AACHC	437	.228/.321/.336	7	7	61	—	.210/.279/.304
2027PROJ2% MLB	24	MLBCHC	6	.208/.276/.299	0	0	62	0.0
2028PROJ28% MLB	25	MLBCHC	104	.211/.280/.312	1	1	67	0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCHC	177	.214/.283/.320	3	2	70	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Z-Con%78

K%72

Whiff%68

Chase%52

BB%47

wRC+34

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsAdam Weisenburger (age 24) · Connor Justus (age 24) · Luis Carpio (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .276 / .299

PA6

HR0

K%17

BB%7

BABIP268

ISO93

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED37

scouting grade only

DEFENSE61

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	57	49	10	4	0	0	7	10	1	0	0	204	316	286	602	82	256	18	12	284	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	381	334	78	21	1	5	38	70	8	11	4	234	326	347	674	114	281	18	10	308	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	437	381	87	18	1	7	44	90	8	7	2	228	321	336	657	108	279	21	10	300	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	57	51	8	3	0	0	5	13	1	0	0	157	246	216	461	59	223	23	9	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	381	346	67	17	1	4	26	85	8	11	4	194	266	283	549	90	238	22	7	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	437	395	83	17	1	6	30	110	8	7	2	210	279	304	583	94	270	25	7	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	57	51	8	3	0	0	5	13	1	0	0	157	246	216	461	59	211	23	9	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	57	49	10	4	0	0	7	10	1	0	0	204	316	286	602	82	256	18	12	284	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	381	346	67	17	1	4	26	85	8	11	4	194	266	283	549	90	244	22	7	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	381	334	78	21	1	5	38	70	8	11	4	234	326	347	674	114	281	18	10	308	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	437	395	83	17	1	6	30	110	8	7	2	210	279	304	583	94	273	25	7	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	—	437	381	87	18	1	7	44	90	8	7	2	228	321	336	657	108	279	21	10	300	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	57	51	8	3	0	0	5	13	1	0	0	157	246	216	461	59	223	23	9	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	381	344	67	17	1	4	26	85	8	11	4	195	266	285	551	90	238	22	7	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	437	396	83	17	1	6	30	110	8	7	2	210	279	303	582	93	270	25	7	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	57	51	8	3	0	0	5	13	1	0	0	157	246	216	461	59	223	23	9	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	381	344	67	17	1	4	26	85	8	11	4	195	266	285	551	90	238	22	7	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	437	396	83	17	1	6	30	110	8	7	2	210	279	303	582	93	270	25	7	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	2%	380	345	71	16	1	4	26	92	6	5	2	206	274	296	570	90	265	24	7	260	62	-17	+0	+3	+7	+8	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	2%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	208	276	299	574	91	268	17	0	262	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	28%	367	332	69	15	1	5	26	89	6	5	2	210	279	310	588	100	267	24	7	267	67	-14	+0	+3	+7	+8	0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	44%	405	367	77	17	1	6	29	97	6	5	2	212	281	318	599	106	268	24	7	272	70	-14	+0	+3	+7	+9	0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	50%	419	379	80	17	1	7	31	101	6	5	2	213	282	320	602	107	269	24	7	273	71	-15	+0	+3	+7	+9	0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	424	384	81	17	1	7	31	103	6	4	2	213	282	319	602	107	269	24	7	273	71	-15	+0	+3	+8	+9	0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	56%	419	379	80	17	1	7	31	102	6	3	2	212	281	318	599	106	269	24	7	272	70	-15	-0	+2	+7	+9	0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	56%	414	375	78	17	1	6	30	102	6	3	2	209	278	310	587	101	267	25	7	267	67	-16	-0	+1	+7	+9	0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	28%	104	94	19	4	0	1	7	25	2	1	0	211	280	312	592	100	270	24	7	269	67	-4	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	44%	177	159	35	8	1	3	13	43	3	2	1	214	283	320	603	106	271	24	7	273	70	-6	+0	+1	+3	+4	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	50%	211	191	41	9	1	3	15	51	3	2	1	214	284	322	605	107	271	24	7	274	71	-7	+0	+2	+4	+5	0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	232	210	46	10	1	4	17	56	3	2	1	214	284	321	605	107	272	24	7	274	71	-8	+0	+1	+4	+5	0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	56%	233	211	46	10	1	4	17	57	3	2	1	213	283	319	602	106	271	24	7	273	70	-8	+0	+1	+4	+5	0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	56%	233	211	45	10	1	3	17	58	3	1	1	210	279	312	590	101	269	25	7	268	67	-9	-0	+1	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1190	1076	232	51	5	18	86	290	17	10	5	216	284	322	607	107	276	24	7	272	65	-43	+0	+7	+21	+26	1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	127	28	3	10	47	158	9	5	3	216	284	325	609	109	277	24	7	272	65	-24	+0	+4	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3643	3298	683	150	9	52	261	880	58	48	19	207	277	305	582	98	265	24	7	264	65	-104	+1	+18	+49	+60	2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	122	27	2	9	47	157	10	9	3	207	277	306	583	99	266	24	7	264	65	-24	+0	+4	+12	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Al Spohrer'28-'35 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,383 PA	3.6	2,383	6	13	230*	282*	337*	+43	+0	2.6	2.9
/162	664	2	4	+11.9	+0.0	0.7	pk7: 3
#6Malachi Kittridge'01-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,664 PA	2.5	1,664	4	11	219*	281*	319*	+30	+0	1.3	1.3
/162	664	2	4	+11.9	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.8	1,196	19	12	212	278	317	+21	+14	1.1	1.1
/162	664	11	6	+11.9	+7.6	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ariel Armas (OGILVIE)	24	30→36	35→34	40→37	45	204/272/294	89	265	4	5	24%	7%	62	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adam Weisenburger 2013 · AA	24	42	36→40	43→30	46	200/275/266	66	266	4	5	25%	8%	57	-1.8	215/292/303	88	278	6	4	23%	8%	72	-0.7	212/295/296	84	268	6	2	21%	8%	70	-0.4
✕Connor Justus 2019 · AA	24	39→37	38→40	42→45	46	187/272/266	79	264	6	8	29%	8%	56	-1.9	176/250/244	68	255	4	8	30%	7%	42	-2.9	151/222/201	49	225	2	6	31%	6%	20	-2.7
✕Luis Carpio 2021 · AA	24	46→43	41→45	38→50	47	222/285/321	99	280	8	7	23%	8%	72	-0.7	207/265/299	92	292	7	10	30%	7%	60	-1.6	191/250/276	84	273	7	10	31%	7%	46	-1.3
✕Jackson Williams 2010 · AA	24	42	38→45	35→40	44	200/264/279	79	260	5	4	24%	7%	55	-1.9	196/262/292	96	261	9	3	27%	7%	58	-1.7	198/247/308	110	250	12	2	25%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Michael Paez 2019 · A	24	43	43→40	37→40	46	210/282/321	110	271	10	5	25%	7%	72	-0.7	208/270/297	89	260	7	5	22%	7%	61	-1.5	190/251/254	63	231	4	0	18%	6%	42	-1.7
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2024 · AA	24	44→41	42→45	43→40	46	214/283/317	104	276	10	4	25%	8%	72	-0.7	219/267/300	81	280	6	5	23%	5%	61	-1.5	225/261/287	62	286	4	2	22%	4%	51	-0.5
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	39	42→45	42→45	46	191/278/294	103	260	10	6	29%	8%	65	-1.2	197/274/326	129	246	14	10	25%	7%	71	-0.8	183/262/322	139	217	16	12	24%	7%	63	-0.8
✕Chase Pinder 2021 · AA	25	40	39→45	40→45	44	193/270/272	79	283	7	5	32%	8%	57	-1.8	215/305/341	126	282	13	8	26%	10%	86	+0.3	219/322/357	138	284	14	11	26%	12%	93	+0.4
✕Wyatt Toregas 2007 · AA	24	47→39	41→45	37→40	44	227/278/328	101	282	9	3	23%	6%	72	-0.7	227/280/342	115	267	12	4	20%	6%	76	-0.4	215/269/335	119	245	15	1	19%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Jio Mier 2015 · AAA	24	41→44	38→40	42→50	44	199/259/272	73	268	6	9	27%	7%	52	-2.2	204/261/290	86	266	7	8	25%	7%	57	-1.8	196/252/279	82	253	6	7	24%	6%	48	-1.3
✕Austin Rei 2018 · A	24	37	39→40	37→40	39	178/254/266	88	271	6	4	34%	6%	50	-2.3	193/266/285	92	285	7	5	32%	7%	58	-1.7	181/261/268	87	260	8	2	31%	8%	50	-0.8
✕Gabriel Lino 2017 · AAA	24	42	40	38→30	38	206/255/293	88	289	8	3	31%	5%	55	-2.0	212/268/313	101	312	8	4	33%	6%	65	-1.2	210/268/309	99	315	6	0	33%	6%	63	-0.7
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2007 · AA	24	37	38→40	43→40	39	180/237/260	80	262	4	4	32%	6%	40	-3.0	196/247/273	77	275	6	4	29%	5%	47	-2.5	208/273/289	82	286	7	0	28%	7%	59	-0.8
✕David Herbek 2013 · A	24	42	41→40	39→45	42	204/268/304	100	273	8	5	27%	6%	63	-1.4	206/268/287	81	280	6	8	27%	7%	59	-1.7	184/247/227	43	248	4	9	26%	7%	35	-1.3
✕Christian Kelley 2019 · AA	25	43	40	36→30	43	208/269/292	84	272	8	2	26%	6%	60	-1.6	199/259/294	95	276	9	4	30%	6%	57	-1.8	180/242/257	77	260	7	0	32%	6%	41	-1.1
✕Thomas Berkery 2008 · AA	25	44→42	39→45	37→40	49	209/289/285	76	278	7	6	26%	9%	66	-1.1	207/277/302	95	281	7	6	27%	8%	65	-1.2	189/259/293	104	255	6	2	27%	8%	54	-1.0
✕Jonathan Esqueda 2009 · AAA	24	46	40→30	41→45	45	221/281/309	88	281	8	7	24%	7%	68	-1.0	228/282/333	105	293	9	11	24%	6%	74	-0.5	243/287/324	82	312	5	11	23%	5%	70	-0.3
✕Omar Estévez 2022 · AAA	24	41→43	42→45	40	42	202/261/299	97	280	10	3	30%	7%	59	-1.7	207/262/312	105	281	10	7	29%	6%	62	-1.4	187/232/278	91	247	7	3	27%	4%	41	-0.9
✕Matt Kennelly 2012 · AA	23	46	39→40	36→40	43	220/273/302	82	290	7	3	26%	6%	63	-1.3	225/278/304	79	279	5	6	20%	6%	65	-1.2	217/272/266	49	266	1	2	18%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Brian Serven 2019 · A	24	42	42→50	41→30	41	206/258/318	112	267	9	4	26%	5%	61	-1.5	194/250/318	124	250	13	4	27%	5%	59	-1.6	212/290/326	114	302	11	1	31%	8%	74	-0.3

Ariel Armas

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps