Justin Johnson

SS Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 27 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	25	AANorthwest Ark…	323	.232/.308/.368	8	7	45	—	.186/.242/.287
2026	26	AANorthwest Ark…	362	.205/.296/.385	13	11	45	—	.162/.235/.297
2027PROJ2% MLB	27	MLBKC	5	.195/.262/.310	0	0	64	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	28	MLBKC	72	.195/.263/.310	1	1	64	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

ISO67

K%52

Z-Con%40

Whiff%38

BB%37

Chase%35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsQuincy McAfee (age 26) · Sharlon Schoop (age 27) · Patrick Brady (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .262 / .310

PA5

HR0

K%20

BB%7

BABIP257

ISO115

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	23	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	126	109	22	4	0	0	12	25	3	4	1	202	298	239	537	37	259	20	10	254	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	400	334	79	24	1	3	51	76	9	16	5	237	352	341	693	105	293	19	13	318	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	323	285	66	15	0	8	29	74	3	7	1	232	308	368	677	137	280	23	9	301	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	362	317	65	18	0	13	33	88	8	11	6	205	296	385	681	180	237	24	9	303	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	126	112	19	3	0	0	9	32	3	4	1	170	250	196	446	27	236	25	7	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	400	349	67	17	1	3	37	94	9	16	5	192	286	272	558	80	244	24	9	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	323	296	55	12	0	6	19	88	3	7	1	186	242	287	529	101	232	27	6	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	362	327	53	14	0	10	23	108	8	11	6	162	235	297	531	135	199	30	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	126	112	19	3	0	0	9	32	3	4	1	170	250	196	446	27	235	25	7	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	126	109	22	4	0	0	12	25	3	4	1	202	298	239	537	37	259	20	10	254	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	400	349	67	17	1	3	37	94	9	16	5	192	286	272	558	80	250	24	9	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	400	334	79	24	1	3	51	76	9	16	5	237	352	341	693	105	293	19	13	318	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	323	296	55	12	0	6	19	88	3	7	1	186	242	287	529	101	238	27	6	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	323	285	66	15	0	8	29	74	3	7	1	232	308	368	677	137	280	23	9	301	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	362	327	53	14	0	10	23	108	8	11	6	162	235	297	531	135	203	30	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	362	317	65	18	0	13	33	88	8	11	6	205	296	385	681	180	237	24	9	303	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	126	113	19	3	0	0	9	32	3	4	1	168	250	195	445	27	236	25	7	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	400	351	67	17	1	3	37	94	9	16	5	191	286	271	557	80	244	24	9	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	323	298	55	12	0	6	19	88	3	7	1	185	242	285	527	101	232	27	6	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	362	328	53	14	0	10	23	108	8	11	6	162	235	296	530	134	199	30	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	400	351	67	17	1	3	37	94	9	16	5	191	286	271	557	80	244	24	9	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	323	298	55	12	0	6	19	88	3	7	1	185	242	285	527	101	232	27	6	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	362	328	53	14	0	10	23	108	8	11	6	162	235	296	530	134	199	30	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	KC	2%	380	345	68	16	1	8	26	108	6	8	3	197	264	317	582	120	259	28	7	263	64	-16	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	KC	2%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	195	262	310	571	115	257	20	0	259	64	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	27%	267	243	48	11	0	6	18	76	4	4	2	198	265	318	583	120	260	28	7	263	64	-11	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	27%	72	66	12	3	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	195	263	310	573	115	258	28	7	259	64	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	72	66	12	3	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	182	250	273	523	91	244	28	7	259	52	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	108	27	0	9	45	181	9	9	0	181	249	272	521	91	244	28	7	259	52	-28	+2	-2	+7	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	1728	1554	286	68	1	30	123	469	31	47	17	184	258	287	545	103	239	27	7	245	52	-22	+0	-1	+6	+11	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	107	26	0	11	46	176	12	18	6	183	257	284	540	101	238	27	7	245	52	-28	+0	-1	+7	+14	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Johnson (OGILVIE)	27	40	45	45	40	196/262/315	119	259	5	5	28%	7%	64	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Quincy McAfee 2024 · AA	26	38	46→45	46→45	46	196/281/327	130	253	13	9	27%	8%	74	-0.5	203/272/330	127	250	14	11	24%	6%	71	-0.8	170/237/280	109	197	14	12	22%	5%	43	-1.3
✕Sharlon Schoop 2014 · AA	27	44→45	45→40	46→45	44	221/276/340	118	279	13	8	25%	6%	74	-0.6	209/255/288	79	271	6	4	24%	5%	53	-2.1	198/250/308	109	251	11	0	25%	5%	53	-0.7
✕Patrick Brady 2015 · AAA	27	41	46→45	44→45	40	212/255/338	127	273	14	8	28%	5%	65	-1.2	212/263/316	104	296	8	12	29%	6%	63	-1.4	208/264/297	90	294	3	14	28%	7%	56	-0.6
✕Gavin Collins 2022 · AAA	27	40	43→45	44→40	44	203/272/310	107	257	12	6	25%	7%	66	-1.1	215/285/332	117	272	13	6	25%	7%	76	-0.4	200/262/293	93	232	10	3	18%	6%	56	-0.7
✕Angelo Castellano 2022 · AAA	27	39→44	42→45	49→50	41	199/252/296	97	259	11	12	28%	6%	55	-2.0	206/271/314	108	257	12	13	24%	7%	66	-1.1	199/268/306	107	242	12	14	23%	8%	60	-0.7
✕David Thompson 2021 · AAA	27	40→47	43→45	50	42	201/261/312	111	260	10	13	26%	6%	61	-1.5	207/279/354	147	283	16	16	32%	6%	79	-0.2	168/251/327	159	223	20	20	34%	6%	59	-0.7
✕Andrés Alvarez 2024 · AA	27	37→32	45	51→50	42	191/256/309	118	267	13	13	33%	7%	59	-1.6	214/278/326	112	303	11	11	31%	7%	71	-0.8	220/290/326	106	314	9	12	31%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Derrick Mitchell 2014 · AAA	27	41→47	46→50	48→55	41	209/257/340	131	265	14	15	27%	6%	67	-1.1	212/276/339	127	268	14	13	25%	8%	74	-0.6	178/266/282	104	208	12	12	21%	10%	60	-0.4
✕Taylor Featherston 2017 · MLB	27	41→46	46→50	49→50	38	209/254/341	132	265	14	11	27%	4%	66	-1.1	188/245/307	119	285	13	11	37%	5%	55	-2.0	164/223/274	110	271	13	10	43%	5%	37	-2.1
✕Jacob Buchberger 2024 · AA	26	42→45	44→45	51→50	44	212/270/325	113	272	13	13	27%	7%	68	-1.0	212/275/312	100	295	9	13	29%	8%	67	-1.1	201/268/278	77	290	5	14	30%	8%	53	-1.5
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	42	44→45	43→40	43	209/272/326	117	281	11	5	29%	7%	69	-0.9	220/287/360	140	261	14	6	21%	8%	83	+0.1	209/274/376	167	219	18	2	15%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	34→36	46→50	48→50	39	184/243/305	121	244	14	10	31%	6%	54	-2.0	209/255/340	131	279	14	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	211/258/338	126	272	14	10	27%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Alvin Colina 2009 · AAA	27	40	45	46→40	37	203/250/323	119	272	13	5	30%	5%	60	-1.6	214/266/341	127	284	15	6	29%	5%	71	-0.8	203/256/324	121	262	15	2	28%	5%	60	-0.6
✕Lloyd Turner 2007 · AA	27	41→46	45	50	44	205/265/325	120	252	12	13	24%	6%	66	-1.1	204/261/320	116	258	12	12	25%	6%	64	-1.3	179/235/285	106	225	10	12	25%	5%	45	-1.1
✕Brendon Davis 2024 · AAA	27	38→45	49→50	46→50	44	199/273/349	150	262	17	9	30%	8%	76	-0.4	195/275/309	114	269	11	17	30%	8%	68	-1.0	174/261/272	98	240	9	22	29%	8%	52	-1.8
✕Jake Kahaulelio 2012 · AA	27	42→44	42→45	45	45	209/271/318	109	253	10	6	21%	6%	67	-1.1	214/289/313	99	259	8	11	20%	7%	73	-0.6	197/307/246	49	232	0	23	13%	10%	64	-0.2
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA	26	42	46→40	48→55	42	209/269/335	126	284	13	14	30%	7%	70	-0.8	228/297/333	105	298	8	27	25%	8%	80	-0.2	233/309/320	88	303	5	48	23%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2009 · MLB	27	44	43→45	46→50	43	217/266/322	105	271	11	4	24%	6%	65	-1.2	215/259/329	114	273	11	3	24%	5%	64	-1.3	204/260/329	125	265	13	1	27%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Eric Stamets 2019 · AAA	27	40→50	44→45	52→50	40	203/259/323	120	268	12	11	29%	5%	63	-1.3	193/251/301	108	269	10	14	31%	6%	55	-1.9	157/223/249	92	225	9	16	33%	6%	31	-1.5
✕Chuckie Robinson 2022 · AA	27	42→52	44→45	46→45	43	210/276/321	111	274	13	8	28%	7%	70	-0.9	224/271/333	109	287	12	7	25%	5%	70	-0.8	224/272/312	88	296	10	4	27%	5%	63	-0.8