Sam Brodersen
P
FCL Nationals
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151142vR 133
ERA5.89
FIP5.89
K%20.3%
BB%19.8%
K-BB%0.5%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 36 | 0 | 46 | 214 | 59 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.4% | 21.5% | -1.1% | 2.6% | 5.91 | 5.51 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 36 | 0 | 46 | 214 | 59 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.6% | 18.2% | 9.3% | 1.9% | 5.91 | 4.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 17 | 0 | 21 | 99 | 28 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.9% | 15.1% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 5.91 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 49 | 48 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 5.89 | 5.89 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.3% | 19.8% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 5.89 | 5.89 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 78 | 340 | 77 | 64 | 10 | — | — | 22.6% | 18.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.89 | 5.55 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 51 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 17.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.59 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 52 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 16.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 5.43 | 5.38 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 22 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 17.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.59 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 34 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 16.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 5.43 | 5.38 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 56 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 16.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.49 | 5.05 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 178 | 143 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 16.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.49 | 5.05 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 53 | 0 | 67 | 313 | 63 | 61 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.3% | 19.5% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 5.91 | 5.24 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 0 | 200 | 934 | 189 | 182 | 24 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.3% | 19.5% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 5.91 | 5.24 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Brodersen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.89 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 3.0% | — | 5.44 | 21.2% | 4.3% | 116 | -0.45 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.61 | 21.4% | 22.3% | 2.7% | .278 | 5.16 | 19.4% | 2.8% | 102 | -0.45 | 3.73 | 203 | 91 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 184 | -0.36 | 3.34 | 334 | 90 |
| Zane Russell R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.19 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 5.10 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 71 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 108 | 88 |
| Josh Harlow R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 87 |
| Jacob Morris R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.72 | 18.0% | 19.6% | 3.0% | .218 | 4.72 | 18.7% | -2.4% | 46 | -1.00 | 4.72 | 102 | 87 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 86 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 86 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.54 | 17.8% | 23.0% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.65 | 15.5% | 0.6% | 32 | +0.11 | 4.42 | 113 | 85 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 85 |
| Tyler Bradt R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.09 | 19.0% | 18.7% | 2.2% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 135 | 85 |
| Tommy DeJuneas R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.09 | 20.8% | 18.8% | 2.5% | .324 | 5.52 | 13.7% | -3.9% | 51 | +0.43 | 3.90 | 178 | 85 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 85 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 84 |
| Everhett Hazelwood R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.67 | 19.0% | 15.4% | 4.0% | .343 | 10.98 | 17.5% | 0.6% | 14 | +5.31 | 5.32 | 117 | 84 |
| Sal Biasi R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.19 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | .295 | 7.85 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 23 | +2.66 | 4.68 | 188 | 84 |
| Spencer Mraz R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.42 | 21.5% | 18.4% | 3.3% | .295 | 4.71 | 15.1% | -4.2% | 35 | -0.71 | 3.61 | 155 | 83 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.36 | 17.8% | 19.9% | 2.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 103 | 83 |
| Noah Murdock R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.72 | 19.8% | 17.1% | 2.1% | .314 | 3.29 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 130 | -1.43 | 2.48 | 292 | 83 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.27 | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2.4% | .237 | 5.45 | 13.6% | -1.7% | 68 | +0.18 | 5.27 | 124 | 83 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 20.9% | 17.8% | 1.14 | 5.64 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |