Sam Brodersen — OGILVIE

Sam Brodersen P FCL Nationals

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 135

ERA6.22

FIP6.22

K%20.3%

BB%22.4%

K-BB%-2.1%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	36	0	46	214	59	39	4	0%	1.3	20.4%	21.5%	-1.1%	2.5%	5.91	5.47	—
2025	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	36	0	46	214	59	39	4	0%	1.3	20.4%	21.5%	-1.1%	2.5%	5.91	5.47	—
2025	23	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	36	0	46	214	59	39	4	0%	1.3	27.6%	18.2%	9.3%	1.9%	5.91	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	28	0	33	149	43	26	3	0%	1.2	20.0%	16.5%	3.5%	2.1%	4.13	4.64	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	28	0	33	149	43	26	3	0%	1.2	20.0%	16.5%	3.5%	2.1%	4.13	4.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	STL	10	0	15	68	20	9	1	0%	1.5	29.4%	13.2%	16.2%	1.5%	3.00	3.10	—
2026	24	A RAW	STL	10	0	10	40	12	8	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	20.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.93	3.10	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	STL	8	0	8	41	11	9	2	0%	1.0	26.8%	22.0%	4.9%	4.9%	10.12	6.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	55	0	58	244	51	47	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	19.1%	1.9%	2.9%	5.86	5.74	-0.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	55	0	58	244	52	45	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	18.3%	3.0%	2.9%	5.67	5.61	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	24	0	25	106	22	20	3	0%	1.0	21.0%	19.1%	1.9%	2.9%	5.86	5.74	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	36	0	38	160	34	29	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	18.3%	3.0%	2.9%	5.67	5.61	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	266	56	50	8	0%	1.1	21.2%	18.6%	2.6%	2.9%	5.74	5.28	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	159	25	0%	1.1	21.2%	18.6%	2.6%	2.9%	5.74	5.28	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		64	0	78	363	73	71	8	0%	1.2	20.2%	19.5%	0.8%	2.3%	5.17	5.13	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	0	200	927	188	180	21	0%	1.2	20.2%	19.5%	0.8%	2.3%	5.17	5.13	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Brodersen (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.22	20.3%	22.4%	2.9%	—	5.67	21.2%	2.5%	116	-0.54	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	92
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	86
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	85
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	84
Will McAffer R 2021 · 6.40 FIP	24	SU	6.40	21.5%	24.2%	3.7%	.343	5.37	14.5%	-5.7%	33	-1.03	4.68	133	84
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	84
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	83
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	83
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	82
Austin Glorius R 2017 · 6.09 FIP	24	SU	6.09	18.7%	21.0%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	141	82
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	82
Alec Hansen R 2019 · 5.74 FIP	24	SU	5.74	18.8%	19.8%	3.1%	.349	4.98	29.5%	-5.0%	22	-0.76	3.34	288	82
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	82
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	82
Spencer Mraz R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	24	SU	5.62	21.5%	18.4%	3.6%	.295	4.68	15.1%	-4.2%	35	-0.94	3.61	155	81
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	81
Yunior Montero R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	24	SU	5.21	21.3%	17.6%	3.1%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	127	81
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	80
Luke Jackson R 2016 · 5.62 FIP	24	SU	5.62	19.5%	15.3%	4.1%	.327	3.21	25.8%	16.8%	210	-2.41	2.67	580	80
Kelvin Vasquez R 2017 · 6.26 FIP	24	SU	6.26	15.0%	23.2%	2.7%	.247	5.06	14.5%	-0.2%	48	-1.20	5.01	180	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	20.9%	20.0%	1.14	5.92
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15