Jake Curtis

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 170 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	31	1	59	3.49	2.31	26.7%	5.0%	—	K 19.1% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.43
2026	24	MIX2 levels	35	5	85	3.27	2.80	22.7%	3.8%	—	K 18.4% · BB 4.6% · FIP 3.41
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	49	0	51	4.09	4.09	19.3%	5.4%	0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCWS	31	0	33	4.09	4.07	20.1%	5.8%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCWS	46	0	48	4.12	4.13	20.3%	6.1%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsCasey Cobb (age 25) · Reinier Roibal (age 26) · Jeff Manship (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.09

FIP4.09

K%19.3%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	59	258	69	13	4	3%	1.9	19.1%	6.1%	13.0%	2.1%	3.49	3.43	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	59	258	69	13	4	3%	1.9	19.1%	6.1%	13.0%	2.1%	3.49	3.43	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	1	59	258	69	13	4	3%	1.9	26.7%	5.0%	21.7%	1.6%	3.49	2.31	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	5	85	344	78	13	7	14%	2.4	18.4%	4.6%	13.7%	2.3%	3.27	3.41	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	5	85	344	78	13	7	14%	2.4	18.4%	4.6%	13.7%	2.3%	3.27	3.41	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	5	85	344	78	13	7	14%	2.4	22.7%	3.8%	18.9%	2.0%	3.27	2.80	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	49	0	51	215	41	12	6	0%	1.0	19.3%	5.4%	13.8%	2.8%	4.09	4.09	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	73	0	77	324	65	19	9	0%	1.1	20.1%	5.8%	14.3%	2.8%	4.09	4.07	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	72	0	76	319	65	20	9	0%	1.0	20.3%	6.1%	14.2%	2.9%	4.12	4.13	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	70	0	73	309	63	20	9	0%	1.0	20.4%	6.4%	14.0%	3.0%	4.18	4.22	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	67	0	70	296	60	20	9	0%	1.0	20.2%	6.7%	13.5%	3.2%	4.28	4.35	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	63	0	66	278	55	19	9	0%	1.0	19.9%	7.0%	12.9%	3.4%	4.43	4.53	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	31	0	33	139	28	8	4	0%	1.1	20.1%	5.8%	14.3%	2.8%	4.09	4.07	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	46	0	48	203	41	12	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	6.1%	14.2%	2.9%	4.12	4.13	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	52	0	55	232	47	15	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	6.4%	14.0%	3.0%	4.18	4.22	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	54	0	57	241	49	16	8	0%	1.1	20.2%	6.7%	13.5%	3.2%	4.28	4.35	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	53	0	56	236	47	17	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	7.0%	12.9%	3.4%	4.43	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		237	0	249	1052	212	68	32	0%	1.1	20.2%	6.5%	13.7%	3.1%	4.24	3.90	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	55	26	0%	1.1	20.2%	6.5%	13.7%	3.1%	4.24	3.90	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		66	6	145	602	112	32	14	9%	2.2	18.7%	5.3%	13.4%	2.2%	3.36	3.42	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	8	200	832	155	44	19	9%	2.2	18.7%	5.3%	13.4%	2.2%	3.36	3.42	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Curtis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	19.3%	5.4%	2.8%	—	4.14	20.3%	14.2%	226	+0.05	—	—	—
Casey Cobb R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	21.8%	6.2%	2.6%	.261	5.59	17.2%	8.3%	118	+2.11	3.48	191	88
Reinier Roibal R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	26	SU	3.11	19.1%	4.5%	1.9%	.262	4.37	16.9%	9.8%	35	+1.26	3.11	133	87
Jeff Manship R 2010 · 3.60 FIP	25	SU	3.60	16.9%	4.8%	2.4%	.330	5.09	12.6%	5.5%	52	+1.49	2.83	250	85
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	85
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	84
Andres Avila R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	16.0%	5.2%	2.9%	.316	4.13	20.3%	13.9%	73	+0.15	3.98	177	84
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	83
Justin Courtney R 2021 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	19.0%	5.9%	4.3%	.364	6.21	17.3%	5.0%	68	+1.63	4.58	108	82
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	576	82
Pedro Rodriguez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	27	SU	3.21	16.4%	4.5%	1.7%	.272	3.70	13.1%	5.2%	43	+0.49	3.21	145	82
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	82
Whit Mayberry R 2015 · 2.91 FIP	25	SU	2.91	16.4%	4.2%	1.2%	.332	3.41	15.6%	11.3%	77	+0.50	2.64	140	82
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	82
Adam Warren R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	19.3%	8.5%	2.8%	.306	3.43	20.5%	13.1%	275	-0.66	2.65	548	82
Preston Claiborne R 2013 · 3.72 FIP	25	SU	3.72	19.6%	4.7%	3.1%	.284	3.51	20.5%	13.2%	66	-0.21	3.07	155	82
Joe Colón J R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	19.4%	7.4%	1.6%	.312	4.07	20.7%	7.8%	65	+0.80	3.27	113	81
Garrett McMillan R 2024 · 3.30 FIP	23	SU	3.30	21.2%	8.2%	1.7%	.324	3.53	18.9%	14.6%	48	+0.23	3.30	118	81
Lance Carter R 2002 · 3.63 FIP	27	SU	3.63	17.7%	5.1%	2.5%	.220	4.80	11.6%	6.3%	216	+1.17	3.63	248	81
Trevor Foss R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	25	SU	4.22	14.5%	5.9%	2.9%	.308	3.77	17.3%	13.8%	42	-0.45	3.77	120	81
Rafael Pineda R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	24	SU	4.25	14.6%	5.2%	3.1%	.298	5.26	6.5%	-3.4%	20	+1.01	4.25	101	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	69	20.1%	6.3%	1.16	4.20
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
James Russell ('16)	1.7	56	17.0%	7.0%	1.16	4.09
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*