Isael AriasOF
FCL Yankees
Age 20
R/R
5'9" / 170 lbs
ROK
HR +8%BB +8%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 1.2 · 2032
wRC+†61
AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .271 / .312
PA186
HR3
K%27
BB%7
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
25→25
PWR
20→20
SPD
60→60
EYE
45↘30
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2032
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.2 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.1 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $5M | +$3M |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.2M |
| Totals | $9M | $45M | +$36M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | 140 | 121 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 6 | 10 | 1 | .174 | .281 | .223 | .504 | .050 | .220 | 21 | 9 | .232 | 36 | -10 | +2 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 217 | 199 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 65 | 2 | 26 | 2 | .126 | .183 | .156 | .339 | .030 | .182 | 30 | 6 | .158 | -21 | -30 | +4 | +0 | -1 | +6 | -2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | NYY | 186 | 169 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 50 | 2 | 4 | 1 | .213 | .277 | .320 | .597 | .107 | .278 | 27 | 7 | .266 | 61 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB 11% | NYY | 260 | 235 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 67 | 3 | 6 | 1 | .217 | .287 | .336 | .623 | .119 | .280 | 26 | 8 | .284 | 75 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB 28% | NYY | 372 | 335 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 92 | 4 | 9 | 2 | .224 | .295 | .358 | .654 | .134 | .282 | 25 | 8 | .295 | 84 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +11 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB 48% | NYY | 446 | 400 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 108 | 5 | 11 | 2 | .230 | .305 | .370 | .675 | .140 | .283 | 24 | 9 | .302 | 89 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +13 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB 62% | NYY | 495 | 443 | 102 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 118 | 6 | 13 | 2 | .230 | .307 | .375 | .682 | .144 | .283 | 24 | 9 | .307 | 93 | -4 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +14 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB 80% | NYY | 522 | 464 | 108 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 124 | 6 | 13 | 2 | .233 | .311 | .379 | .691 | .147 | .284 | 24 | 9 | .310 | 95 | -3 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 1.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 538 | 477 | 111 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 49 | 128 | 7 | 13 | 2 | .233 | .313 | .382 | .695 | .149 | .284 | 24 | 9 | .312 | 97 | -2 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 1.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 543 | 481 | 112 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 129 | 7 | 13 | 2 | .233 | .314 | .380 | .695 | .148 | .284 | 24 | 9 | .312 | 97 | -2 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 1.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 541 | 479 | 111 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 51 | 130 | 6 | 13 | 2 | .232 | .313 | .380 | .693 | .148 | .284 | 24 | 9 | .310 | 96 | -3 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +15 | 1.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 534 | 473 | 109 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 50 | 130 | 6 | 12 | 1 | .230 | .312 | .374 | .686 | .144 | .283 | 24 | 9 | .308 | 94 | -4 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +15 | 0.9 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 524 | 464 | 106 | 19 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 129 | 6 | 12 | 1 | .228 | .310 | .373 | .683 | .144 | .282 | 25 | 9 | .305 | 92 | -5 | +2 | -2 | -3 | +15 | 0.7 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 511 | 452 | 102 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 48 | 128 | 6 | 11 | 0 | .226 | .308 | .365 | .673 | .139 | .280 | 25 | 9 | .301 | 89 | -6 | +2 | -3 | -3 | +14 | 0.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 493 | 438 | 97 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 126 | 6 | 10 | 0 | .221 | .304 | .356 | .660 | .135 | .279 | 26 | 9 | .297 | 85 | -8 | +2 | -4 | -3 | +14 | 0.1 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 464 | 413 | 89 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 122 | 5 | 9 | 0 | .215 | .297 | .344 | .641 | .128 | .277 | 26 | 9 | .291 | 81 | -10 | +2 | -4 | -3 | +13 | -0.2 |
| 2040 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 417 | 371 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 113 | 4 | 8 | 0 | .210 | .292 | .332 | .624 | .121 | .275 | 27 | 9 | .285 | 76 | -11 | +2 | -5 | -3 | +12 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7203 | 6414 | 1425 | 255 | 41 | 174 | 640 | 1789 | 87 | 193 | 21 | .222 | .301 | .356 | .657 | .134 | .279 | 25 | 9 | .296 | 85 | -125 | +30 | -20 | -43 | +204 | 4.7 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 579 | 129 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 58 | 161 | 8 | 17 | 2 | .223 | .303 | .359 | .662 | .136 | .278 | 25 | 9 | .296 | 85 | -11 | +3 | -2 | -4 | +18 | 0.4 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | 140 | 114 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 1 | .246 | .381 | .325 | .706 | .079 | .290 | 15 | 14 | .331 | 112 | +2 | +2 | — | — | +4 | 0.8 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 217 | 192 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 45 | 2 | 26 | 2 | .182 | .263 | .240 | .502 | .057 | .228 | 21 | 9 | .233 | 37 | -16 | +4 | — | — | +6 | -0.5 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Isael Arias (OGILVIE) | 20 | 25 | 20 | 60 | 30 | .208/.271/.312 | .104 | .278 | 3 | 4 | 27% | 7% | 61 | -0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Ryan Vega 2017 · A |
20 | 43 | 40 | 54→45 | 41 | .211/.259/.301 | .090 | .269 | 7 | 9 | 24% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .215/.274/.304 | .089 | .288 | 7 | 7 | 26% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .193/.261/.272 | .079 | .271 | 7 | 6 | 30% | 7% | 46 | -1.1 |
|
✕Jon Matthews 2012 · A |
21 | 42 | 36→40 | 54→60 | 40 | .198/.258/.268 | .070 | .284 | 2 | 17 | 30% | 6% | 43 | -2.2 | .204/.265/.275 | .071 | .290 | 4 | 23 | 29% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .233/.305/.294 | .061 | .313 | 3 | 21 | 24% | 8% | 67 | -0.2 |
|
✕Efrain Contreras 2007 · A |
20 | 44 | 41→45 | 51→55 | 44 | .212/.278/.308 | .097 | .264 | 8 | 8 | 22% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .227/.291/.336 | .109 | .276 | 10 | 14 | 21% | 6% | 76 | +0.0 | .227/.291/.331 | .104 | .281 | 10 | 15 | 22% | 5% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A |
19 | 36 | 41→45 | 47→60 | 41 | .181/.239/.272 | .091 | .247 | 9 | 13 | 30% | 6% | 37 | -2.6 | .219/.271/.301 | .082 | .284 | 7 | 20 | 24% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .234/.281/.297 | .063 | .300 | 5 | 24 | 23% | 5% | 58 | -0.3 |
|
✕Zack Larson 2014 · A |
20 | 46→37 | 41→45 | 53→50 | 41 | .221/.280/.317 | .096 | .294 | 8 | 12 | 27% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .205/.260/.273 | .068 | .276 | 3 | 10 | 25% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .186/.243/.235 | .049 | .252 | 1 | 10 | 25% | 6% | 28 | -1.8 |
|
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A |
20 | 40 | 37→40 | 51→55 | 43 | .192/.253/.267 | .075 | .262 | 4 | 12 | 27% | 6% | 41 | -2.3 | .204/.276/.291 | .087 | .284 | 8 | 19 | 29% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .202/.289/.291 | .089 | .266 | 11 | 29 | 26% | 9% | 63 | -0.5 |
|
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A |
20 | 41→35 | 41→45 | 47→50 | 40 | .199/.265/.295 | .096 | .286 | 9 | 10 | 32% | 6% | 55 | -1.4 | .204/.294/.305 | .101 | .301 | 9 | 8 | 32% | 10% | 70 | -0.3 | .186/.292/.283 | .097 | .277 | 9 | 10 | 33% | 11% | 63 | -0.5 |
|
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2010 · A |
20 | 42 | 38→40 | 49→55 | 44 | .200/.281/.272 | .073 | .296 | 6 | 16 | 32% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .200/.259/.281 | .081 | .332 | 7 | 9 | 39% | 6% | 47 | -1.9 | .171/.216/.243 | .071 | .295 | 8 | 2 | 43% | 4% | 17 | -1.1 |
|
✕Albertson Asigen 2022 · A |
20 | 43 | 39→40 | 53→55 | 44 | .207/.262/.299 | .092 | .279 | 5 | 7 | 27% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .223/.296/.298 | .075 | .324 | 4 | 17 | 30% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .211/.299/.301 | .089 | .346 | 7 | 27 | 37% | 9% | 66 | -0.2 |
|
✕Jose Paez 2014 · A |
20 | 46 | 39→45 | 51→50 | 38 | .218/.263/.312 | .093 | .303 | 5 | 12 | 29% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .209/.259/.289 | .080 | .322 | 4 | 10 | 34% | 6% | 50 | -1.8 | .195/.251/.252 | .057 | .320 | 4 | 11 | 38% | 6% | 32 | -0.6 |
|
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A |
20 | 45 | 38→30 | 48→60 | 46 | .214/.278/.298 | .084 | .285 | 5 | 12 | 26% | 8% | 60 | -1.0 | .216/.302/.277 | .061 | .288 | 3 | 24 | 23% | 10% | 66 | -0.6 | .216/.317/.260 | .044 | .285 | 1 | 34 | 22% | 12% | 65 | -0.3 |
|
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A |
20 | 39 | 40 | 52→50 | 40 | .191/.251/.288 | .097 | .267 | 7 | 14 | 30% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .196/.259/.275 | .079 | .316 | 7 | 10 | 37% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .190/.261/.265 | .075 | .295 | 9 | 10 | 36% | 7% | 42 | -1.1 |
|
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A |
20 | 40→38 | 40 | 52→50 | 41 | .194/.257/.285 | .090 | .273 | 7 | 15 | 30% | 7% | 48 | -1.9 | .199/.267/.276 | .077 | .296 | 4 | 8 | 31% | 8% | 50 | -1.8 | .188/.268/.257 | .069 | .288 | 3 | 7 | 33% | 9% | 42 | -1.4 |
|
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2011 · A |
20 | 40 | 39→45 | 50 | 41 | .198/.251/.283 | .085 | .260 | 7 | 13 | 26% | 6% | 45 | -2.1 | .224/.280/.352 | .128 | .278 | 13 | 10 | 24% | 6% | 76 | +0.0 | .228/.279/.356 | .128 | .281 | 14 | 8 | 24% | 5% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Enger Jimenez 2015 · A |
20 | 38 | 40 | 48→50 | 37 | .188/.238/.285 | .097 | .266 | 7 | 9 | 31% | 5% | 40 | -2.4 | .213/.266/.304 | .091 | .281 | 5 | 10 | 25% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .223/.275/.315 | .092 | .285 | 5 | 14 | 22% | 5% | 59 | -0.5 |
|
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A |
19 | 42 | 37→30 | 53→45 | 44 | .198/.262/.269 | .072 | .264 | 4 | 12 | 26% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .228/.288/.282 | .054 | .279 | 3 | 7 | 18% | 6% | 60 | -1.0 | .243/.302/.283 | .040 | .290 | 2 | 5 | 16% | 6% | 64 | -0.3 |
|
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A |
20 | 39→30 | 38→45 | 51→50 | 41 | .188/.258/.268 | .080 | .284 | 5 | 13 | 34% | 7% | 44 | -2.1 | .208/.274/.312 | .104 | .324 | 8 | 15 | 36% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .195/.257/.318 | .122 | .287 | 13 | 16 | 35% | 6% | 53 | -0.7 |
|
✕Adrian Abreu 2011 · A |
20 | 43 | 37→40 | 52→55 | 44 | .206/.261/.284 | .078 | .265 | 4 | 10 | 23% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .204/.281/.290 | .086 | .252 | 7 | 15 | 21% | 9% | 60 | -1.0 | .194/.284/.274 | .080 | .231 | 8 | 20 | 19% | 10% | 56 | -0.4 |
|
✕Cesar Gonzalez 2015 · A |
20 | 45 | 36→40 | 53→60 | 39 | .207/.265/.281 | .074 | .316 | 3 | 18 | 33% | 6% | 50 | -1.7 | .209/.262/.281 | .072 | .334 | 3 | 12 | 36% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .184/.230/.216 | .032 | .334 | 0 | 4 | 42% | 5% | 14 | -0.9 |
|
✕Wilfredo Moreno 2006 · A |
20 | 41 | 37→45 | 48→45 | 42 | .199/.244/.269 | .070 | .243 | 5 | 7 | 21% | 5% | 37 | -2.6 | .237/.283/.329 | .092 | .279 | 8 | 6 | 18% | 5% | 70 | -0.3 | .285/.327/.385 | .100 | .321 | 11 | 5 | 14% | 4% | 102 | +0.7 |