Isael Arias — OGILVIE

Isael AriasOF FCL Yankees

Age 21 R/R 5'9" / 170 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 108 proj PA

wRC+†42

AVG/OBP/SLG.187 / .244 / .253

PA108

HR1

K%28

BB%6

ISO67

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	114	28	2	2	1	19	21	6	10	1	246	381	325	706	79	290	15	14	331	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	217	192	35	6	1	1	19	45	2	26	2	182	263	240	502	57	228	21	9	233	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	51	45	10	2	0	0	6	19	0	8	2	222	314	267	580	44	385	37	12	274	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	56	52	8	1	0	1	4	15	0	7	0	154	214	231	445	77	194	27	7	207	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	120	18	1	1	1	13	25	6	10	1	150	266	200	466	50	180	18	9	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	217	199	25	4	1	0	12	65	2	26	2	126	183	156	339	30	177	30	6	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	51	47	7	1	0	0	4	26	0	8	2	149	216	170	386	21	352	51	8	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	56	54	6	1	0	1	2	22	0	7	0	111	143	185	328	74	153	39	4	133	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	120	18	1	1	1	13	25	6	10	1	150	266	200	466	50	179	18	9	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	114	28	2	2	1	19	21	6	10	1	246	381	325	706	79	290	15	14	331	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	217	199	25	4	1	0	12	65	2	26	2	126	183	156	339	30	182	30	6	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	—	217	192	35	6	1	1	19	45	2	26	2	182	263	240	502	57	228	21	9	233	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	107	100	13	2	0	1	7	47	0	15	2	130	187	180	367	50	231	44	7	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	107	97	18	3	0	1	10	34	0	15	2	186	262	247	509	62	274	32	9	239	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	120	18	1	1	1	13	25	6	10	1	150	266	200	466	50	180	18	9	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	217	201	25	4	1	0	12	65	2	26	2	124	183	154	337	30	177	30	6	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	107	99	13	2	0	1	7	47	0	15	2	131	187	182	369	51	248	44	7	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	120	18	1	1	1	13	25	6	10	1	150	266	200	466	50	180	18	9	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	217	201	25	4	1	0	12	65	2	26	2	124	183	154	337	30	177	30	6	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	107	99	13	2	0	1	7	47	0	15	2	131	187	182	369	51	248	44	7	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	217	200	37	7	1	1	13	60	2	6	1	189	246	255	502	67	259	28	6	230	42	-15	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	206	189	37	7	1	2	13	56	2	5	1	195	253	274	528	79	262	27	6	241	49	-12	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.9
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	71	66	12	2	0	1	4	19	1	2	0	195	254	276	530	81	262	27	6	242	49	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	71	66	12	2	0	1	4	19	1	2	0	182	239	258	497	76	239	27	6	242	22	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	604	109	18	0	9	37	174	9	18	0	180	238	255	493	75	238	27	6	242	22	-39	+4	+0	-4	+14	-2.6
Career	—	MLE		—	778	707	112	17	4	5	52	223	11	59	7	158	227	215	442	57	221	29	7	201	22	-20	+1	+0	-2	+7	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	93	14	3	4	43	186	9	49	6	157	226	212	437	54	219	29	7	201	22	-41	+2	+0	-4	+14	-3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Isael Arias (OGILVIE)	21	25	20	60	30	187/244/253	66	259	1	3	28%	6%	42	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Ramos 2024 · A	21	36	38→40	59→55	43	175/251/257	81	256	4	23	31%	7%	46	-2.6	195/280/275	80	288	5	23	31%	9%	61	-1.5	194/290/265	72	282	5	28	30%	11%	60	-0.5
✕Victor Soto 2010 · A	21	37	36→40	56→60	41	177/232/249	72	241	3	22	27%	6%	36	-3.4	196/239/267	71	288	3	14	31%	5%	42	-2.9	183/213/232	49	272	0	18	32%	3%	22	-0.9
✕Omar Hernandez 2023 · A	21	37	36→30	52→55	36	180/223/245	65	267	3	12	33%	5%	31	-3.7	192/242/254	62	259	4	17	26%	6%	40	-3.0	208/245/263	55	275	4	21	25%	4%	40	-1.5
✕Wascar Adames 2010 · A	21	40	36→40	52→55	42	193/239/258	65	249	4	15	24%	5%	40	-3.0	199/258/281	82	268	4	16	26%	6%	53	-2.1	179/248/267	88	240	4	24	25%	6%	48	-0.9
✕Jose Vinicio 2014 · A	21	40→32	36→40	51→55	33	194/224/259	65	280	3	19	32%	3%	34	-3.5	223/252/290	67	302	3	13	26%	3%	51	-2.2	254/278/317	63	323	1	12	21%	3%	64	-0.4
✕Sandy Mota 2018 · A	21	35	37→30	52→55	38	172/221/244	71	242	4	14	30%	5%	30	-3.8	184/236/260	76	275	5	12	33%	6%	40	-3.1	160/217/228	68	240	4	15	33%	6%	24	-1.0
✕Cristian Paulino 2013 · A	21	40	36→40	55→60	41	192/246/263	71	260	3	17	26%	6%	45	-2.7	207/250/296	89	275	6	21	26%	4%	53	-2.1	207/249/303	97	269	7	28	25%	4%	51	-0.7
✕Dalvy Rosario 2021 · A	21	40→43	38→40	53→55	41	195/247/272	77	273	5	14	29%	6%	47	-2.6	199/252/282	83	286	7	17	31%	6%	51	-2.3	191/241/271	81	274	8	21	32%	5%	43	-2.0
✕Cristo Arnal 2007 · A	21	40	35→30	52→50	44	191/243/246	54	244	3	12	22%	6%	38	-3.2	214/261/272	58	266	3	13	19%	6%	51	-2.2	232/278/269	37	276	2	19	16%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Juan Beltre 2007 · A	21	33	34→30	47→60	37	163/212/209	45	234	1	10	30%	4%	19	-4.6	192/259/248	56	259	3	19	25%	6%	47	-2.6	203/286/241	38	251	1	32	18%	7%	54	-0.8
✕Ruben Martinez 2008 · A	21	36	35→30	57→60	47	170/265/229	58	266	2	22	33%	10%	46	-2.6	173/239/236	63	271	2	13	34%	7%	36	-3.4	137/178/188	51	208	0	10	32%	4%	-1	-1.9
✕Grolmann Gonzalez 2010 · A	21	39	37→40	52→55	43	187/250/267	81	261	4	9	29%	7%	47	-2.5	208/262/300	92	302	6	7	31%	6%	59	-1.7	213/259/311	98	299	7	4	30%	5%	58	-0.4
✕George Feliz 2023 · A	20	34	39→45	54→45	38	169/229/251	81	271	6	13	38%	7%	36	-3.4	173/235/269	96	305	10	11	44%	6%	42	-2.9	160/223/268	108	267	13	9	43%	6%	36	-1.2
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	36	39→40	51→50	40	181/244/269	88	257	7	13	31%	6%	46	-2.6	196/262/273	77	311	7	10	36%	7%	53	-2.1	190/263/263	73	291	8	10	35%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Juan Carlos Smith 2019 · A	21	36	38→40	53→55	41	173/228/256	83	226	4	18	25%	5%	36	-3.3	193/243/277	84	276	5	12	30%	5%	47	-2.6	180/221/257	77	269	5	12	34%	4%	30	-1.0
✕Jake Vogel 2024 · A	22	41→40	36→40	55	39	192/256/265	73	293	3	17	34%	6%	49	-2.4	185/257/258	73	290	5	18	35%	7%	49	-2.4	138/225/185	48	226	4	22	38%	8%	19	-2.5
✕Eduardo Caraballo 2008 · A	21	37	35→30	51→50	39	176/234/233	57	259	3	14	31%	6%	33	-3.6	187/246/248	61	263	2	11	28%	6%	41	-3.0	167/228/214	47	231	0	10	26%	6%	24	-2.0
✕Anderson Bohorquez 2019 · A	21	40	34→30	51→50	42	188/246/244	56	250	2	15	24%	6%	40	-3.0	194/244/260	66	268	3	11	27%	6%	42	-2.9	158/195/190	32	203	0	12	21%	4%	9	-1.0
✕Angel Aponte 2021 · A	21	42	39→40	54→55	41	203/261/292	89	279	6	17	28%	6%	57	-1.8	206/263/297	91	296	7	20	31%	5%	59	-1.7	189/245/275	85	274	8	24	32%	5%	45	-1.0