Isael Arias — OGILVIE

Isael AriasOF FCL Yankees

Age 20 R/R 5'9" / 170 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION93 act + 110 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†25

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .239 / .265

PA110

HR1

SB6

K%30

BB%5

BABIP261

ISO78

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	121	21	1	1	1	12	30	6	10	1	174	281	223	504	50	220	21	9	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	114	28	2	2	1	19	21	6	10	1	246	381	325	706	79	290	15	14	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	217	199	24	4	1	0	12	65	2	26	2	121	178	151	329	30	175	30	6	153	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	217	192	35	6	1	1	19	45	2	26	2	182	263	240	502	57	228	21	9	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	NYY	—	93	88	10	1	0	1	5	44	0	15	1	114	161	159	320	45	209	47	5	147	-30	-14	+3	+0	-1	+3	-0.9
YTD	20	ROK	NYY	—	93	85	15	2	0	1	8	31	0	15	1	176	247	235	483	59	264	33	9	227	32	-7	+3	+0	-1	+3	-0.3
ROS	20	ROK	NYY	0%	110	102	19	3	1	1	6	33	1	6	1	186	239	265	503	78	252	30	5	218	25	-9	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.6
ROS	20	MLB	NYY	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		253	—	—	213	21	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	NYY	—	93	89	10	1	0	1	5	44	0	15	1	112	161	157	319	45	205	47	5	147	-30	-14	+3	+0	-1	+3	-0.9
TOT	20	ROK	NYY	—	203	190	29	4	1	2	11	77	1	21	2	153	203	216	419	63	241	38	5	185	0	-23	+3	+0	-1	+6	-1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	NYY	34%	284	261	50	9	2	3	18	83	3	9	1	192	252	276	528	84	260	29	6	236	39	-20	+1	+0	-2	+8	-1.2
2027	21	MLB	NYY	34%	98	91	17	3	1	1	6	29	1	3	0	187	245	275	520	88	261	30	6	231	35	-7	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	98	92	17	3	1	1	6	29	1	3	0	185	245	272	517	87	258	30	6	231	35	-7	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	610	114	20	7	7	40	192	7	20	0	187	248	277	525	90	260	30	6	231	35	-48	+4	+0	-4	+18	-3.0
Career	—			—	751	683	114	17	5	5	48	211	12	51	5	167	234	228	463	61	230	28	6	209	18	-70	+8	+0	-5	+21	-4.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	98	15	4	4	42	183	10	44	4	166	233	225	458	59	230	28	6	209	18	-60	+7	+0	-4	+18	-3.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	140	114	28	2	2	1	19	21	6	10	1	246	381	325	706	79	290	15	14	331	112	+2	+2	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	217	192	35	6	1	1	19	45	2	26	2	182	263	240	502	57	228	21	9	233	37	-16	+4	—	—	+6	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	301	2	8	192	247	264	-2	+0	-1.3	-0.7
	/162	664	5	18	192	247	264	-4.0	+0.0	-2.9	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Isael Arias (OGILVIE)	20	25	20	60	30	153/203/216	63	241	2	21	38%	5%	37	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Raul Fortunato 2011 · A	20	35→40	35→40	53→55	40	172/227/231	59	234	3	17	27%	5%	21	-3.7	210/262/300	90	282	7	18	27%	6%	53	-1.5	202/243/277	75	273	6	17	28%	5%	35	-1.7
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2015 · A	20	37	34→30	49→50	39	173/244/222	48	261	1	13	32%	6%	27	-3.3	185/241/234	49	276	1	12	32%	4%	27	-3.3	174/225/205	31	262	0	15	32%	4%	10	-1.5
✕Wilson Amador 2017 · A	20	37	35→30	51→55	36	176/234/241	65	268	2	15	34%	5%	27	-3.3	202/245/275	73	305	4	16	33%	5%	39	-2.5	199/227/257	58	297	2	29	33%	3%	23	-1.1
✕Ariel Montesino 2015 · A	19	38	36→40	53→50	41	181/239/249	69	257	3	16	30%	6%	30	-3.1	196/247/255	59	259	3	9	24%	6%	35	-2.8	188/241/238	51	246	3	7	24%	6%	26	-1.2
✕Shurendell Mujica 2011 · A	20	41	34→30	55	42	189/260/242	52	274	2	18	30%	7%	38	-2.6	191/270/259	68	273	3	18	28%	8%	47	-1.9	161/257/223	62	228	2	26	27%	10%	31	-1.2
✕Gabriel Ovalle 2015 · A	20	36	35→40	57→60	41	173/225/241	68	239	1	15	27%	6%	22	-3.7	188/252/246	58	261	1	15	26%	7%	35	-2.8	179/270/216	37	224	0	32	18%	9%	34	-0.9
✕Francisco Contreras 2012 · A	20	37	35→40	51→45	39	180/225/244	64	240	2	7	25%	4%	23	-3.6	191/249/265	74	253	4	8	25%	6%	39	-2.5	183/243/256	72	250	5	7	27%	6%	33	-1.4
✕Didimo Bracho 2017 · A	20	35	37→30	48→60	34	172/222/242	69	271	5	13	37%	5%	21	-3.7	195/244/300	105	293	8	6	34%	5%	46	-2.0	181/230/321	140	251	11	3	32%	5%	41	-0.6
✕Cristo Arnal 2006 · A	20	41	34→30	53→50	42	194/243/243	49	260	2	9	25%	6%	30	-3.1	198/247/257	59	254	3	11	22%	6%	36	-2.7	226/272/270	43	269	2	19	16%	5%	45	-0.8
✕Juan Batista 2021 · A	20	40	36→40	51→55	45	190/261/264	74	271	3	16	29%	8%	44	-2.1	183/243/264	81	368	5	13	48%	6%	37	-2.7	91/156/145	54	282	2	18	64%	5%	-32	-1.9
✕Jevi Hernandez 2019 · A	20	41	37→40	55→60	44	197/246/276	80	244	4	22	21%	6%	40	-2.4	198/254/269	71	284	3	17	29%	6%	42	-2.3	158/215/195	38	250	0	23	34%	5%	4	-1.2
✕Markus Brisker 2011 · A	20	39→35	36→40	50→55	39	186/240/244	58	286	4	18	35%	6%	29	-3.2	177/254/257	80	296	6	19	39%	8%	40	-2.4	153/237/225	72	260	5	23	39%	8%	23	-1.8
✕Angelberth Montilla 2009 · A	20	41	36→30	51→55	43	196/256/260	64	260	3	18	24%	6%	41	-2.3	203/255/270	67	275	3	14	26%	6%	43	-2.2	193/243/247	54	265	2	15	27%	5%	29	-1.0
✕Ivan Mora 2014 · A	20	39	37→40	50→45	36	189/228/264	75	256	3	11	27%	3%	29	-3.2	202/242/273	71	286	3	9	29%	4%	37	-2.7	201/236/266	65	285	1	10	29%	3%	30	-0.9
✕Sandy Mota 2017 · A	20	40	37→30	51→55	40	189/251/258	69	275	4	13	31%	6%	38	-2.6	186/236/266	80	281	5	14	34%	5%	33	-2.9	162/207/244	82	246	6	16	35%	5%	13	-1.0
✕Miguel Eladio 2016 · A	20	35	35→40	49→55	34	171/211/224	53	264	2	13	35%	4%	11	-4.4	196/229/264	68	311	4	7	37%	4%	29	-3.2	203/229/274	71	317	5	4	36%	3%	27	-1.3
✕Alexander Benua 2023 · A	19	39	35→40	54→55	39	183/253/246	63	277	3	19	33%	6%	37	-2.6	192/258/278	86	297	6	14	35%	6%	47	-1.9	179/247/272	92	289	8	12	38%	7%	40	-0.9
✕Jose Jules 2017 · A	19	36	35→30	53→55	35	176/224/236	61	278	3	17	36%	5%	20	-3.8	191/253/264	73	257	5	14	26%	7%	40	-2.4	164/239/221	57	200	5	18	20%	8%	22	-1.3
✕Demetrio Nadal 2023 · A	19	42	35→30	55	47	198/281/261	63	260	3	17	23%	7%	53	-1.5	210/300/287	77	273	4	25	23%	8%	68	-0.5	195/295/268	73	258	5	32	24%	9%	60	-0.4
✕Angel Solarte 2021 · A	20	39	39→30	49→45	39	192/239/277	85	258	6	7	28%	5%	37	-2.6	209/262/276	67	317	3	9	33%	5%	46	-2.0	204/258/257	53	313	2	10	33%	5%	38	-1.2