Nigel Belgrave

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	44	0	62	2.89	2.44	29.5%	10.8%	—	K 22.8% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.32
2025	23	MIX2 levels	41	1	68	2.51	2.16	33.2%	9.7%	—	K 26.5% · BB 11.0% · FIP 2.95
2026	24	AAMIA	41	0	68	3.82	2.72	29.1%	8.8%	—	K 23.6% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.49
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIA	67	0	70	3.94	3.94	25.6%	9.6%	0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBMIA	30	0	31	3.96	3.95	25.6%	9.5%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBMIA	42	0	44	4.00	4.01	25.4%	9.5%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Control45Command60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsTrent Harris (age 25) · Steven Wilson (age 24) · Josh Martin (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.94

FIP3.94

K%25.6%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%16.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD6060

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	11	50	17	10	0	0%	1.9	34.0%	20.0%	14.0%	0.0%	3.18	2.76	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	11	50	17	10	0	0%	1.9	34.0%	20.0%	14.0%	0.0%	3.18	2.75	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	62	251	74	27	2	0%	1.4	22.8%	12.3%	10.5%	1.1%	2.89	3.32	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	62	251	74	27	2	0%	1.4	22.8%	12.3%	10.5%	1.1%	2.89	3.32	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	62	251	74	27	2	0%	1.4	29.5%	10.8%	18.7%	0.8%	2.89	2.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	68	277	92	27	3	2%	1.7	26.5%	11.0%	15.5%	1.3%	2.51	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	68	277	92	27	3	2%	1.7	26.5%	11.0%	15.5%	1.3%	2.51	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	68	277	92	27	3	2%	1.7	33.2%	9.7%	23.5%	1.1%	2.51	2.16	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	41	0	68	285	83	25	5	0%	1.7	23.6%	9.6%	13.9%	2.1%	3.82	3.49	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	41	0	68	285	83	25	5	0%	1.7	23.6%	9.6%	13.9%	2.1%	3.82	3.49	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	41	0	68	285	83	25	5	0%	1.7	29.1%	8.8%	20.4%	1.8%	3.82	2.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIA	67	0	70	296	76	28	8	0%	1.0	25.6%	9.6%	16.0%	2.6%	3.94	3.94	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	67	0	70	296	76	28	8	0%	1.0	25.6%	9.5%	16.1%	2.6%	3.96	3.95	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	66	0	69	291	74	28	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.5%	15.9%	2.7%	4.00	4.01	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	282	71	27	8	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.7%	15.5%	2.8%	4.07	4.11	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	270	67	27	8	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	3.0%	4.18	4.25	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	30	0	31	131	34	12	3	0%	1.0	25.6%	9.5%	16.1%	2.6%	3.96	3.95	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	42	0	44	186	47	18	5	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.5%	15.9%	2.7%	4.00	4.01	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	49	0	51	215	54	21	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.7%	15.5%	2.8%	4.07	4.11	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	55	22	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	3.0%	4.18	4.25	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	189	72	21	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.7%	15.6%	2.8%	4.07	3.72	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	213	81	24	0%	1.1	25.2%	9.7%	15.6%	2.8%	4.07	3.72	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		132	1	210	863	215	99	12	1%	1.6	24.9%	11.4%	13.4%	1.4%	3.09	3.22	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	1	200	822	205	94	12	1%	1.6	24.9%	11.4%	13.4%	1.4%	3.09	3.22	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nigel Belgrave (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	25.6%	9.6%	2.6%	—	4.02	25.4%	15.9%	206	+0.08	—	—	—
Trent Harris R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	25	SU	3.45	26.9%	9.5%	2.6%	.258	3.36	24.7%	16.7%	121	-0.09	3.06	198	89
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	331	89
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	89
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	88
Lucas Wepf R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	24	SU	3.80	27.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.304	4.09	25.4%	11.8%	80	+0.29	2.90	195	88
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	88
Victor Zambrano R 2001 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	27.4%	8.5%	2.8%	.246	4.75	16.4%	3.1%	444	+1.33	3.42	706	88
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	87
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	87
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	87
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	87
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	87
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	87
Brad Lidge R 2003 · 2.97 FIP	26	SU	2.97	27.8%	10.0%	1.7%	.256	2.24	36.7%	28.9%	240	-0.73	1.56	595	86
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	86
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	86
Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 2.99 FIP	25	SU	2.99	26.1%	11.5%	1.2%	.280	4.13	22.6%	8.4%	77	+1.14	2.99	134	86
Brandon Johnson R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	25	SU	3.35	25.0%	9.5%	2.1%	.375	4.94	21.0%	10.6%	134	+1.59	3.35	250	85
Yoervis Medina R 2013 · 3.44 FIP	25	SU	3.44	24.4%	11.3%	1.8%	.242	3.73	21.1%	10.3%	118	+0.29	3.01	186	85
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	25.4%	9.6%	1.05	4.03
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Danny Farquhar ('18)	1.4	54	26.9%	9.2%	0.99	3.93
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Bob James ('78-'87, 4 WAR*)	2.0	68	26.3%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.04*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*