Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Salem Red Sox | 18 | 15 | 61 | 278 | 47 | 28 | 4 | 83% | 3.4 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 6.23 | 4.86 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Salem Red Sox | 18 | 15 | 61 | 278 | 47 | 28 | 4 | 83% | 3.4 | 16.9% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 6.23 | 3.79 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 30 | 4 | 88 | 386 | 108 | 28 | 11 | 13% | 2.9 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.29 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 33 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.6% | 13.6% | -2.0% | 2.9% | 5.83 | 5.83 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.6% | 13.6% | -2.0% | 2.9% | 5.83 | 5.83 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 156 | 670 | 141 | 67 | 19 | — | — | 21.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 4.96 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 11.6% | 13.6% | -2.0% | 2.9% | 5.83 | 5.45 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 40 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.1% | 12.8% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 5.57 | 5.50 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 45 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 45 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.34 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.1% | 12.8% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 5.57 | 5.50 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 35 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.34 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 0 | 127 | 534 | 82 | 67 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.42 | 5.00 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 130 | 106 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.42 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 48 | 19 | 149 | 664 | 118 | 65 | 20 | 40% | 3.1 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 5.26 | 4.53 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 26 | 200 | 891 | 158 | 88 | 27 | 40% | 3.1 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 5.26 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Hansen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.83 | 11.6% | 13.6% | 2.9% | — | 5.39 | 15.2% | 2.7% | 203 | -0.44 | — | — | — |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 90 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 89 |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.13 | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2.4% | .309 | 7.73 | 17.8% | 2.4% | 17 | +2.60 | 4.17 | 152 | 87 |
| Zach Willeman R 2025 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.55 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.6% | .296 | 5.10 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 108 | -0.45 | 4.15 | 264 | 84 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 83 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 83 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2028 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 81 |
| Kyle Miller R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 12.1% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 164 | 81 |
| LJ Brewster R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.90 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 143 | 81 |
| Ted Stuka R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 80 |
| Paul Clemens R 2029 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 79 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 79 |
| Braxton Hyde R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.67 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 4.0% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 198 | 78 |
| Dane Myers R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.39 | 12.2% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 125 | 77 |
| Parker Bridwell R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.29 | 12.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .278 | 4.96 | 15.5% | 7.8% | 269 | -0.33 | 3.64 | 422 | 76 |
| Holden Wilkerson R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.86 | 15.8% | 11.0% | 3.1% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 114 | 75 |
| Daniel Concepcion R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.38 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 110 | 74 |
| Robbie Peto R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.38 | 15.6% | 19.4% | 2.1% | .242 | 5.71 | 15.3% | 1.9% | 80 | +0.33 | 5.38 | 232 | 74 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 74 |
| Boone Whiting R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 14.3% | 12.8% | 1.13 | 5.53 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |