Owen Stevenson — OGILVIE

Owen Stevenson P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%20.0%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	2	0	2	8	0	2	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.27	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	2	0	2	8	0	2	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.10	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	15	72	12	12	2	0%	1.5	13.5%	21.5%	-8.0%	2.4%	7.80	5.99	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	15	72	12	12	2	0%	1.5	13.5%	21.5%	-8.0%	2.4%	7.80	5.99	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	15	72	12	12	2	0%	1.5	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	2.8%	7.80	5.63	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	12	50	4	5	0	0%	1.9	5.9%	11.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	4.63	4.09	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	12	50	4	5	0	0%	1.9	5.9%	11.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	4.63	4.09	—
2025	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	12	50	4	5	0	0%	1.9	8.0%	10.0%	-2.0%	0.0%	4.63	3.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TB	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	18	9	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.7%	10.1%	2.9%	4.74	4.69	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.7%	10.1%	2.9%	4.74	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.7%	10.1%	2.9%	4.74	4.31	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.7%	10.1%	2.9%	4.74	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		18	0	29	130	13	23	2	0%	1.6	9.7%	18.0%	-8.2%	1.3%	5.97	5.28	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	0	200	907	88	163	12	0%	1.6	9.7%	18.0%	-8.2%	1.3%	5.97	5.28	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Owen Stevenson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	20.0%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.69	20.8%	10.1%	20	-0.19	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	88
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	88
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	86
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	85
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	84
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	84
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	84
Miles Mikolas R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	23	SU	4.56	16.0%	10.4%	2.7%	.275	4.29	14.9%	8.6%	57	-0.27	3.13	1,386	84
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	84
Jackson Rees R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	16.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.354	1.90	28.2%	20.8%	62	-2.57	1.90	103	84
Armando Ruiz R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	83
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	83