Juan Cruz

1B Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 22 R/R 6'5" / 240 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	21	AWSH	342	.293/.347/.505	12	10	75	—	.225/.271/.378
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBWSH	452	.211/.260/.343	11	9	68	-0.9
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBWSH	130	.214/.265/.350	3	3	72	-0.4
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBWSH	203	.217/.269/.357	5	4	75	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

ISO85

wRC+77

wOBA75

Speed65

K%39

Whiff%38

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJohan Mieses (age 21) · Jabari Henry (age 22) · Alexander Canario (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .258 / .340

PA320

HR8

SB6

K%28

BB%5

ISO132

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 29 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT29

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE42

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	342	311	91	24	3	12	22	89	5	10	3	293	347	505	852	212	373	26	6	371	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	342	320	72	18	2	9	15	121	5	10	3	225	271	378	649	153	324	35	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	342	320	72	18	2	9	15	121	5	10	3	225	271	378	649	153	328	35	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	342	311	91	24	3	12	22	89	5	10	3	293	347	505	852	212	373	26	6	371	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	342	319	72	18	2	9	15	121	5	10	3	226	271	379	650	154	324	35	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	342	319	72	18	2	9	15	121	5	10	3	226	271	379	650	154	324	35	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	452	420	89	17	3	11	24	126	5	9	2	211	260	343	603	132	271	28	5	268	68	-17	+1	+0	-8	+10	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	378	350	75	14	2	10	21	104	4	8	2	214	266	352	617	138	273	28	6	274	72	-13	+1	+0	-7	+8	-1.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	WSH	46%	441	409	89	17	3	12	25	120	4	9	2	217	270	359	629	141	275	27	6	279	75	-13	+1	+0	-8	+10	-1.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	475	439	96	18	3	13	28	128	5	10	3	219	273	363	636	144	275	27	6	283	77	-13	+1	+0	-8	+10	-1.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	495	457	101	19	3	14	30	132	5	10	3	220	275	366	641	145	276	27	6	285	79	-12	+1	+0	-9	+11	-1.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	130	121	26	5	1	3	7	36	1	3	1	214	265	350	615	136	272	28	5	273	72	-4	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	WSH	46%	203	188	40	8	1	5	11	55	2	4	1	217	269	357	626	140	274	27	5	278	75	-6	+0	+0	-4	+4	-0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	245	227	50	10	1	7	14	66	2	5	1	219	273	361	634	142	275	27	6	282	77	-7	+1	+0	-4	+5	-0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	268	247	54	11	1	7	16	71	3	6	1	220	275	364	639	144	275	26	6	284	79	-7	+1	+0	-5	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	846	783	170	34	4	22	48	228	8	18	4	217	269	355	624	138	276	27	6	280	75	-24	+2	+0	-15	+18	-1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	131	26	3	17	37	175	6	14	3	218	270	355	625	138	276	27	6	280	75	-18	+2	+0	-12	+14	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	2451	2272	496	98	15	66	136	695	26	53	15	218	270	362	632	143	282	28	6	279	75	-63	+4	+0	-38	+46	-5.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	132	26	4	18	36	184	7	14	4	219	271	365	636	146	282	28	6	279	75	-19	+1	+0	-12	+14	-1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.8	1,167	31	23	217	267	358	-21	-4	-2.2	-1.1
/162	664	17	13	-11.9	-2.6	-1.3	pk7: 0
#4Phil Todt'24-'31 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,765 PA	5.7	3,765	57	29	228*	277*	399*	-67	+17	-2.8	-1.9
/162	664	10	5	-11.8	+3.0	-0.5	pk7: -1
#5Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3
#6Fritz Mollwitz'13-'19 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,904 PA	2.9	1,904	1	70	242*	287*	361*	-34	-8	-5.1	-5.1
/162	664	0	24	-11.8	-2.8	-1.8	pk7: -5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Cruz (OGILVIE)	22	24→29	45→50	49→54	42	209/258/340	131	271	8	6	28%	5%	68	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	45→55	52→50	40	204/250/330	126	265	12	14	28%	5%	61	-1.5	189/238/351	162	266	20	4	37%	5%	63	-1.4	192/268/358	166	237	23	7	30%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Jabari Henry 2013 · A	22	41	46→55	49→45	44	208/269/341	133	270	13	6	28%	7%	72	-0.7	206/283/358	152	269	17	6	28%	9%	81	-0.1	191/276/354	163	247	19	6	30%	10%	74	-0.4
✕Alexander Canario 2022 · A	22	37→36	50→60	50	36	195/243/346	150	282	18	14	37%	6%	63	-1.4	213/276/401	188	298	24	14	35%	7%	89	+0.5	210/280/412	202	285	27	13	35%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Richie Shaffer 2014 · A	23	42→40	44→55	51→40	38	209/256/329	121	285	11	6	30%	5%	63	-1.3	205/272/365	160	274	18	5	31%	8%	78	-0.3	197/270/360	164	261	19	4	31%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Ivan Melendez 2023 · A	23	43→35	44→50	50→40	43	212/297/334	121	279	12	6	27%	6%	82	-0.0	202/264/357	155	299	21	4	38%	6%	74	-0.5	192/255/341	149	276	21	3	37%	6%	64	-0.9
✕Jose Vargas 2010 · A	22	38	46→55	46→40	33	200/230/324	124	271	14	4	32%	3%	53	-2.1	200/239/308	108	286	11	4	33%	4%	52	-2.2	214/248/387	173	278	24	3	33%	4%	72	-0.4
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	38	49→50	54→50	37	197/258/345	148	285	17	14	36%	6%	69	-0.9	206/268/346	140	308	16	13	36%	7%	73	-0.6	188/254/312	124	285	15	12	37%	7%	57	-1.0
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2018 · AA	22	43→40	46→50	53→55	45	213/280/344	131	271	13	20	26%	7%	76	-0.4	203/282/338	135	283	13	16	31%	8%	76	-0.4	182/270/306	124	256	12	18	32%	9%	63	-0.9
✕Ben Johnson 2016 · A	22	42→30	44→50	46→45	42	211/269/331	120	266	11	4	25%	6%	69	-0.9	172/224/251	79	321	6	9	45%	5%	34	-3.5	140/190/204	64	287	5	10	50%	4%	8	-2.6
✕Quincy Latimore 2011 · A	22	42	45→50	51→50	34	209/253/336	127	294	12	6	33%	4%	64	-1.3	211/262/340	129	291	13	8	31%	5%	69	-0.9	218/269/348	130	279	14	10	26%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Narciso Crook 2017 · A	22	38→43	42→50	51→50	32	193/230/298	105	288	10	11	36%	4%	46	-2.6	210/261/330	120	310	11	10	34%	5%	65	-1.2	211/273/363	152	309	16	14	35%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Brian McFall 2006 · A	22	39→44	46→55	51→50	36	195/262/318	123	289	14	12	36%	5%	65	-1.2	203/263/356	153	280	18	9	33%	6%	74	-0.6	207/271/356	148	277	17	8	30%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Argenis Aldazoro 2015 · A	22	41	47→55	53→50	36	211/240/345	133	266	15	9	27%	4%	61	-1.5	205/244/289	84	282	6	8	28%	5%	49	-2.4	202/238/261	60	287	0	6	28%	4%	36	-0.8
✕Niko Hulsizer 2019 · A	22	43→30	47→60	51→50	42	207/297/346	139	317	15	12	36%	8%	84	+0.2	204/282/377	173	332	21	8	42%	8%	86	+0.3	194/269/385	191	316	25	12	44%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	41→37	44→45	49→50	41	202/273/319	117	276	11	8	30%	6%	69	-0.9	208/282/339	131	278	13	10	29%	6%	77	-0.3	207/286/352	145	264	16	10	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Zach Levenson 2024 · A	22	44→39	48→45	48→45	40	220/273/361	140	306	16	8	33%	6%	78	-0.3	200/278/327	127	264	14	8	28%	9%	72	-0.7	188/274/314	126	243	15	7	28%	9%	65	-0.8
✕Luis Castro 2018 · A	22	45→42	41→50	49→45	41	216/264/321	105	268	7	11	22%	4%	65	-1.2	228/307/367	139	306	15	9	29%	7%	93	+0.8	201/290/342	141	283	17	8	33%	8%	80	-0.1
✕P.J. Hilson 2024 · A	23	37	46→50	56→50	35	195/241/325	130	266	14	13	32%	4%	57	-1.8	196/242/318	122	267	15	15	32%	4%	56	-1.9	183/233/293	110	250	15	19	33%	5%	45	-1.3
✕Brandon Bayardi 2014 · A	23	39	43→50	49→45	38	197/251/302	105	257	11	8	27%	4%	56	-1.9	219/273/344	125	290	13	7	28%	5%	74	-0.6	223/280/362	139	292	16	7	28%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Tyreque Reed 2019 · A	22	45→37	49→50	48→40	39	220/279/374	153	319	16	4	35%	6%	83	+0.1	213/281/364	151	303	18	5	34%	7%	82	-0.0	196/270/343	147	281	19	3	36%	8%	71	-0.4

Juan Cruz

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps