Brady Afthim — OGILVIE

Brady Afthim P Dayton Dragons

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 211 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%22.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	2	0	3	11	2	0	0	0%	1.5	18.2%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	3.00	1.56	—
2025	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	2	0	3	11	2	0	0	0%	1.5	18.2%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	3.00	1.56	—
2025	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	2	0	3	11	2	0	0	0%	1.5	18.2%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	3.00	1.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	29	0	53	225	63	24	9	0%	1.8	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	5.1%	3.54	5.67	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	29	0	53	225	63	24	9	0%	1.8	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	5.1%	3.54	5.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	CIN	17	0	27	112	29	11	3	0%	1.6	25.9%	9.8%	16.1%	2.7%	2.33	3.63	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CIN	12	0	26	113	34	13	6	0%	2.2	30.1%	11.5%	18.6%	5.3%	4.78	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	51	0	54	226	53	22	7	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.9%	13.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.41	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	52	0	54	229	55	22	7	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.5%	14.4%	3.0%	4.38	4.32	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	52	0	54	229	55	22	7	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.4%	14.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.29	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	51	0	53	225	54	21	7	0%	1.0	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	3.1%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	22	0	23	97	23	10	3	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.9%	13.6%	3.0%	4.47	4.41	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	34	0	36	152	36	14	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.5%	14.4%	3.0%	4.38	4.32	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	41	0	43	182	44	17	5	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.4%	14.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.29	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	44	0	46	194	47	18	6	0%	1.0	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	3.1%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		140	0	147	622	149	59	19	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.5%	14.4%	3.0%	4.36	3.95	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	80	26	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.5%	14.4%	3.0%	4.36	3.95	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		31	0	56	236	50	28	11	0%	1.8	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	4.8%	3.51	5.47	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		110	0	200	838	176	99	40	0%	1.8	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	4.8%	3.51	5.47	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Afthim (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	22.9%	10.6%	3.1%	—	4.34	23.8%	14.2%	162	-0.23	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	94
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	91
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	90
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	89
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	89
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	88
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	88
Jacob Dorris R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	26.9%	12.4%	3.2%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.42	4.16	130	88
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	87
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Alex Klonowski R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	21.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.331	4.69	14.3%	7.1%	413	+1.11	3.58	539	87
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	87
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	86
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	51	23.7%	9.7%	1.17	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81